Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Mike's Emmy Nomination Predictions & Wishlist!


ML- Hundreds of thousands of hours of TV aired this past year, and when you filter out the Big Bang Theory reruns, anything ending in :Miami, :LA, or :NY and everything made fun of on The Soup, you're left with the contenders for the 2012 Primetime Emmy Awards.

But not all the contenders will make the cut come Thursday morning when Nick Offerman and Kerry Washington announce this year's nominees. So who's a lock for a nom, who's teetering on the edge and who can sleep in without bothering to act humbled? Keep reading to find out, in my annual Emmy Nomination Predictionpalooza!

Contenders are listed from Most-Least likely, and the percentages represent my confidence in hearing their names read as nominees. This doesn't necessarily mean the person in first place is my pick to win it all, just most likely to get into the nominations pool. I've also included my suggestions for episode submissions and some dream nominees I'd love to see get a shot at the gold.

BEST DRAMA SERIES

1. Mad Men, AMC (100%) Season 5
Tape A: Far Away Places & At the Codfish Bar
Tape B: Lady Lazarus & The Other Woman
Tape C: Commissions and Fees & The Phantom

2. Homeland, SHOWTIME (95%) Season 1
Tape A: Pilot & The Weekend
Tape B: Blind Spot & Representative Brody
Tape C: The Vest & Marine One

3. Breaking Bad, AMC (90%) Season 4
Tape A: Box Cutter & Problem Dog
Tape B: Hermanos & Salud
Tape C: End Times & Face Off

4. Downton Abbey, PBS (80%) Season 2
Tape A: Episode 1 & Episode 5
Tape B: Episode 6 & Episode 7
Tape C: Episode 8 & Christmas Special

5. Game of Thrones, HBO (65%) Season 2
Tape A: The North Remembers & What Is Dead May Never Die
Tape B: The Old Gods and the New & A Man Without Honor
Tape C: Blackwater & Valar Morghulis

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Boardwalk Empire, HBO Season 2
or
7. The Good Wife, CBS Season 3


BEST DRAMA ACTOR

1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (100%) Crawl Space
2. Jon Hamm, Mad Men (95%) The Phantom
3. Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (90%) To The Lost
4. Kelsey Grammer, Boss (80%) Listen
5. Timothy Olyphant, Justified (75%) Slaughterhouse

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Damian Lewis, Homeland
or
7. Hugh Laurie, House

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS

1. Claire Danes, Homeland (100%) The Weekend
2. Julianna Marguiles, The Good Wife (95%) Blue Ribbon Panel
3. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (90%) The Other Woman
4. Glenn Close, Damages (80%) Failure Is Lonely
5. Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU (55%) Father's Shadow

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
or
7. Emmy Rossum, Shameless

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (100%) End Times
2. John Slattery, Mad Men (95%) Far Away Places
3. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (90%) Blackwater
4. Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad (80%) Hermanos
5. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland (65%) Blind Spot

And the Final Slot will go to either
6. Neal McDonough, Justified
or
7. Alan Cumming, The Good Wife

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (100%) The Other Woman
2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (95%) Episode Three
3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (80%) Gloves Come Off
4. Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (75%) Bitcoin for Dummies
5. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (60%) Bullet Points

And the Final Slot will go to either
6. Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
or
7. Morena Baccarin, Homeland

5 DREAM DRAMA NOMINEES

Lena Headey, Game of Thrones in Supporting Actress over Christine Baranski
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey in Lead Actress over Mariska Hargitay
Jessica Pare, Mad Men in Lead Actress over Sedgwick/Rossum
Michael Pitt, Boardwalk Empire in Supporting Actor over Mandy Patinkin
Lisa Edelstein, The Good Wife in Guest Actress

Top 8 Drama Writing Episodes
The Weekend, Homeland
Crawl Space, Breaking Bad
Commissions and Fees, Mad Men
Episode 7 Christmas, Downton Abbey
Blackwater, Game of Thrones
Signal 30, Mad Men
Under God's Power She Flourishes, Boardwalk Empire
Box Cutter, Breaking Bad


BEST COMEDY SERIES

1. Modern Family, ABC (100%) Season 3
Tape A: Phil On Wire & Punkin Chunkin
Tape B: Lifetime Supply & Aunt Mommy
Tape C: Election Day & Baby On Board

2. 30 Rock, NBC (95%) Season 6
Tape A: Dance Like Nobody's Watching & Leap Day
Tape B: Kidnapped By Danger & Live From Studio 6H
Tape C: The Return of Avery Jessup & What Will Happen to the Gang Next Year?

3. Parks and Recreation, NBC (90%) Season 4
Tape A: Born & Raised & The Trial of Leslie Knope
Tape B: Citizen Knope & The Comeback Kid
Tape C: The Debate & Win, Lose or Draw

4. Curb Your Enthusiasm, HBO (80%) Season 8
Tape A: The Safe House & The Palestinian Chicken
Tape B: The Hero & The Bi-Sexual
Tape C: Mister Softee & The Bi-Sexual

5. The Big Bang Theory, CBS (70%) Season 5
Tape A: The Her Garden Germinator & The 21-Second Excitation
Tape B: The Justice League Recombination & The Engagement Reaction
Tape C: The Love Car Displacement & The Agreement Dissection

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Louie, F/X Season 2
or
7. New Girl, FOX Season 1

BEST COMEDY ACTOR

1. Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (100%) The Werewolf Transformation
2. Louis CK, Louie (90%) Country Drive
3. Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (85%) The Palestinian Chicken
4. Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (80%) Live From Studio 6H
5. Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (75%) Frodo's Headshot

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory
or
7. Don Cheadle, House of Lies

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS

1. Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (100%) Win, Lose or Draw
2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (95%) Tears
3. Tina Fey, 30 Rock (80%) The Tuxedo Begins
4. Zooey Deschanel, New Girl (75%) Pilot
5. Lena Dunham, Girls (55%) The Return

And the Final Slot will go to either:
6. Laura Linney, The Big C
or
7. Laura Dern, Enlightened

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Ty Burrell, Modern Family (100%) Lifetime Supply
2. Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (95%) Treehouse
3. Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (90%) Disneyland
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (80%) Leap Day
5. Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation (65%) Pawnee Rangers

And the Final Slot will go to either
6. Max Greenfield, New Girl
or
7. Chris Colfer, Glee

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Julie Bowen, Modern Family (100%) Little Bo Bleep
2. Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (95%) Tableau Vivant
3. Kristin Wiig, Saturday Night Live (80%) Mick Jagger
4. Betty White, Hot in Cleveland (75%) Happy Fat
5. Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock (60%) Dance Like Nobody's Watching

And the Final Slot will go to either
6. Chloris Leachman, Raising Hope
or
7. Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives

5 DREAM COMEDY NOMINEES

Joel McHale, Community in Lead Actor over Jon Cryer
Gillian Jacobs, Community in Supporting Actress over Betty White
Damon Wayans, Jr., Happy Endings in Supporting Actor over Eric Stonestreet
Chris Pratt, Parks and Recreation in Supporting Actor over Ed O'Neill
Doup Stanhope, Louie in Guest Actor

Top 8 Comedy Writing Episodes
Remedial Chaos Theory, Community
Pilot, Girls
Win, Lose or Draw, Parks and Recreation
Tears, Veep
Kidnapped By Danger, 30 Rock
Aunt Mommy, Modern Family
Pregnant, Louie
Pilot, New Girl


2 comments:

  1. Most of these I read and have a fairly decent idea at least who I'd like to win a category. But Best Supporting Actor for Drama? I'd give it to any of them.

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    Replies
    1. There hasn't been a repeat winner in that category in 16 years, so history is against Dinklage, who won last year, and Paul the year before. This is Esposito's only shot, much like Justified's Margo Martindale who won last year, while Slattery has really delivered as Roger over the past 5 years. They're all certainly deserving, but I'd be happiest if it went to Esposito or Slattery.

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