Podcast Episode 99: 30 Seasons! 15 Years! One Survivor Retrospective Podcast!

In this week's special episode we discuss all thirty seasons of CBS’ Survivor (in order) in honor of the show’s 15th anniversary this month. What were some our favorite moments and how did they, along with many memorable castaways, shape the game we see today? We attempt to answer this and a variety of other questions in this special retrospective!



You can also listen to past episodes of the podcast on iTunes or on our YouTube channel.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 7 Strategy Blog - Chaos is a Lawyer

via pandawhale.com

by Mike Ladue

Before I say anything...

I'll stop. I don't want to stop, but I will. Because those are all the .gifs I felt like finding. Because frankly I don't even want to analyze this episode. I want to watch it again. Even though I recorded it, I'm also shelling out to buy the episode on iTunes tomorrow. It deserves money. It deserves Emmys. It deserves to be put in a time capsule along with the Lucy episode where she and Ethel ate all the chocolates. It's the Red Wedding of Survivor episodes.

In hindsight, it all makes sense. Replace Kass with Cochran and you basically have Survivor: South Pacific's merge episode. A lawyer gets bullied and takes the game into his/her own hands, alienating everyone else on his/her old tribe.

The beauty of this episode was the editing. The editors get the MVP award, because they turned a pretty basic plot point - alienated Kass jumps ship - into a tour-de-force episode.

Actually, no, the MVP award of the week has a rightful owner:

TRISH.

I've given Trish a lot of flack here before, but boy howdy did homegirl play that right. She sensed the cattiness between Sarah and Kass. Tony and LJ dismissed her, but she stuck to her guns and slyly drew Kass in. Brava, Trish. Bask in your glory.

Did Kass make the right move? Not really. Tasha wasn't "choosing" Sarah over Kass, she was putting Sarah on a pedestal. She appeased the swing vote. Classic Survivor.

Kass didn't want to appease. She didn't want to be "bullied", aka, not be in charge of the vote. Voting Trish or Jefra is a quick and easy way to establish solid numbers. Kass was thinking practically, while Sarah thought big. Sarah wanted LJ, Tony or Woo out. Eliminate a strong guy, a merge challenge threat. Two very different schools of thought. I touched on this a few weeks ago, and will repeat here: the Jefra vote was the theoretical right move. Jefra has an easier path to endgame now than Tony, LJ or Woo. Those guys will turn on each other out of fear and bravado. Little ol' Jefra is in for some smooth sailing.

The old Aparri obviously agreed, as they targeted Jefra in what may be the craziest Tribal Council ever,  up there with Parvati and Malcolm's dual idol moves. Tony pulled out his Idol. Aparri scrambled to vote "the other one". Tony used the idol on LJ. LJ used his Idol on TONY. The first vote - JEFRA. The second vote - SARAH. Tied til the final vote -- SARAH. Solana goes wild. Aparri goes pale.

Spencer is quick to tell Kass she's not winning this game, but she's not so sure. At this point, I'd have to side with Spencer. Kass, for some odd reason, wanted to instigate the watershed vote that alienated half the remaining players, who will make up half the Jury. She could have let Sarah do that. Appease Sarah, limiting her options, and convince Spencer and Tasha to cut the cop loose a few weeks down the line. No blood on Kass' hands.

Kass wanted blood. She mentioned blood in one confessional, physical violence in another and murder in yet another. How did this woman pass the psych testing? I made a Game of Thrones reference before, but #ChaosKass, who literally used the words "usurp Sarah's throne", would fit right in with the duplicitous Lannisters, Greyjoys and Freys of Westeros. Or Petyr "Chaos is a Ladder" Baelish. (Sorry, Game of Thrones comes back Sunday and I'm hella excited.)

She made another interesting claim tonight - because Trish, Jefra and co. also saw Sarah as a threat, Kass was impressed by their smarts and wanted to join forces with them. NO, Kass! Align with the dumb people! Keep Morgan, Jeremiah and Sarah in the game as long as you can! Dumb + loyal is the best type of ally available.

But Kass made her choice, and made Survivor history in the process.

Up For Grabs -

-Fallen Comrades: Sarah got what was coming to her. Neither she nor Kass had the social dexterity to kowtow to the other's demands. I liked her before tonight, but that inherent need to call the shots is a fatal flaw if I ever saw one.

-Winner pick: I still want to pick Spencer, but mostly because of how quick he was to turn down the easy, overused portmanteau merged tribe name. Salarrion > Salarri. He's astute, but now, once again, against the ropes.

-Apparently this "new idol" was dreamed up by Tyler Perry (yes, the Tyler Perry), who told Jeff Probst the game could use an idol playable after the votes were read. So basically, that super unfair idol from Panama/Cook Islands. I hope next season we get the Jeff Foxworthy Presents: Medallion of Power 2: The Desolation of Superfan's Respect for the Show.

-While introducing the Immunity Necklace, Probst said "This is what you seek now" instead of his perennial "this is what you covet." Has coveting suddenly become too taboo for the show?

-Trish seems like an anxiety-inducing pilates instructor. Is that how pilates works? I don't know a single thing about pilates.

-Someone called Woo "Wooie", so now I'm imagining an F/X sitcom starring Woo with a catchy theme song that goes something like "Wooie Wooie Wooie Wooieeeeee…"

-Woo wore watershoes and won. Hmm.

-Idea: Survivor: 29 - Cobs vs. Robbers. Cops is self-explanatory. Robbers can either be 1. Felons, which, eh. 2. Former contestants named Rob, which, probably or 3. Former contestants who have been "robbed" in the game, like Silas/Paschal/Willard/Jenny/Michelle/Aaron/Cirie/Katie.

-Can you name a more exciting Survivor episode? Did Kass make the right move? Hit up the comments or follow @miketvladue on Twitter to join the conversation!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 5 Strategy Blog: A Numbers Game?

via CBS.com

by Mike Ladue

Even casual fans have probably heard the phrase, "Survivor is a numbers game." But is it true?

Ultimately, yes. To win Survivor you need more votes than each of the other people sitting next to you at Final Tribal Council. But until that point, Survivor is most certainly not a numbers game. You can point to the introduction of the Hidden Immunity Idol in Guatemala as a major shift in the dynamic, where a person on the wrong end of a unanimous vote can live to fight another day. But really, Survivor has never been a numbers game due to the inherent presence of the plain-old Immunity challenge. Theoretically, a contestant could be immune from the vote in every single Tribal Council, both tribal and post-merge, and never have to worry about the numbers until FTC. (And let's be honest, if someone won every. single. challenge., how could you not reward him/her with your million-dollar vote?)

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #9: Survivor isn't a numbers game, it's a people's game. Had LJ been from any of the other 49 U.S. states, he'd probably have gone home -- or at least used his HII. But being from Masachussetts, he forged a connection with Trish, who did some talking to Tony, who all teamed up with Jefra to oust Cliff. I've never witnessed such a turn of events in the show's history; one's hometown saving someone from elimination. LJ gets the MVP of tonight's episode, simply by being born at the right place. (And also for playing it so damn cool when pressed on the HII. Unless the editors just showed random stone-faced shots at opportune moments, LJ should switch careers with Garrett and become a pro poker player.)

Cliff did everything right. He established strong bonds early on with the right people. Sure, the crazy lady on the tribe disliked him, but she disliked Lindsay WAY more. And Cliff was an asset in challenges! Did you see him holding that pole? The entire Aparri tribe could have latched onto him, like the orcs hacking on ents at the end of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and he still wouldn't have budged.

But Cliff was Cliff. He is a person, and some people don't like other people -- especially celebrity people who make a lot of money. I knew it'd be Cliff's downfall, though I expected -- for other contestant's sakes -- for it to come way later in the game, even at FTC, when numbers actually matter.

In Cliff's mind it was 4 vs. 3, the fourth being Tony. But Tony had been sowing seeds to dethrone Cliff since he spilled the beans to Sarah about the fake conversation. And Cliff's intimidation tactic definitely didn't work on Tony, who's got a lot to prove to the boys in blue back home. And Cliff wasn't about to get on his knees and beg (though I wish he had, though, because he'd probably still tower over poor Tony). It's reminiscent of Brenda's unwillingness to scramble to save herself in Nicaragua. Had these two swallowed their pride, they might have lasted a bit longer.

Tony made the right move tonight. It's obvious he was out of the Cliffhangers (™) alliance and would have been cut loose after at most two more losses, or sooner should Cliff and co. start seeing his physical strength as a post-merge threat. And, assuming Tony did make the merge, he'd probably join up with Sarah, who'd still be hell bent on voting out Cliff. This was the tidiest move for Tony, as it ties up loose ends.

Alternatively, had he blindsided LJ, he'd firmly establish a Brawn alliance, or at least project that image to the other tribe. Sarah, his Cops-R-Us ally, would probably be targeted. This move keeps her safe and moves the target to the Beauties on Aparri, who stand to gain more come the merge with LJ and Jefra in play.

To be fair, the Beauties are doing a good job targeting themselves. Alexis and Morgan's cat fight shows, again, numbers in Survivor are superficial. 3 Beauties =/= 3 Allies. The only reason the 3 Brains = 3 Allies is because they've played more game. As Cliff noted, the [NBA] series doesn't start until you lose your first game. Compared to Sarah and the Beauties, Kass/Tasha/Spencer are seasoned veterans. My first instinct was that Sarah would be the swing vote in a Brains v Beauty beatdown. Now, it looks like it'll be Morgan vs Alexis, with Sarah the one sitting pretty out of harm's way.

The Brains are getting a fantastic edit. I can see these three going all the way now, like the Jalapao 3 or Foa Foa 4 (OK, I guess Erinn outlasted Taj in Tocantins and Brett outlasted Jaison in Samoa, but they're still examples of underdogs nearly sweeping the competition). But none of them are giving off Winner vibes yet, which is great. The editors are keeping lots of characters in play, and it's making for a great season of TV.

Up For Grabs

-MVP: LJ, you stone cold fox, you.

-Winner Pick: I'll start doing rankings?
1. Spencer (Could it be that obvious? He's getting a glowing edit)
2. Tasha (Team Brains, but not enough to single her out as favorable)
3. Kass (Team Brains, but way too much negativity)
4. Sarah (Team CopsRUs, but starting to feel more Stephenie than Danni)
5. Morgan (If a Beauty does it, it'll be her)
6. Tony (We didn't even see his reaction to being separated from Sarah? Bad news)
7. LJ (Solid, not spectacular)
8. Woo (Too quiet)
9. Jeremiah (Too much foreshadowing of his downfall)
10. Jefra (Too little character)
11. Alexis (Too much negative perception)
12. Trish (That branch hit her in the head in Ep 1, and by God I'm sticking to that)
13. Lindsay (Probst on the beach next week = not a good sign)

-Sarah outing Morgan's secret about the rice vs. HII choice goes to show how hard it is to successfully maintain a lie out there.

-Hopefully the reunion will feature a twerk-off between Trish and Alexis.

-Jeff Probst doesn't know the sex of the Immunity Idol, so he checks the crotch. Oh Jeff.

-Are gongs traditional instruments in Filipino culture? Seemed out of place to me.

-Trish said she's no Mrs. Robinson. Right, Trish, that was Kail on Big Brother 8, and we all know how well she did (not very).

-Did Tony make the right choice? Is Lindsay gonna quit? Can the Brains go all the way? Cast your thoughts below or send a treemail tweet to: @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 4 Strategy Blog - No-Brainer

via blog.sfgate.com

By Mike Ladue

Last week, I rambled on about how loyalty is an important factor when voting at Tribal Council. It's not the only factor, however, as Loyalty + Physical Prowess > Loyalty + Choking In Every Challenge Ever.

On the Beauty tribe, things looked bleak for Morgan. Being down by 3+ in numbers is never a good position to be in, and few rarely recover. Those that do -- Sandra in HvV, Danni in Guatemala -- often go the distance. But Morgan showed some promise, taking a page from Tony and dropping some white lies. Did Jeremiah want LJ out that badly? That's not how I remember it, but the story was believable enough (and honestly, Morgan was defeated enough) for the target to stick. All of a sudden, Jeremiah's vote looks like a bad decision. TOLDJA!

The Beauty tribe dominated both challenges, the first being one of the all-time best sources of physical humor the show can deliver. Look back at All-Stars' puzzle bloodbath, or even Colby drenching Jerri with water in Australia. This season's didn't disappoint, as apparently John Kirhoffer and the challenge crew decided to build all the protruding rails at crotch height. Poor LJ and Spencer. Were I in their shoes, I'd hold the bag in front of my waist to protect it from sharp, pointy hazards.

The second was tailor-made for the Brawns, who couldn't manage to throw the challenge against the pitiful Brains. (Flashbacks to Matty single-handedly preventing the pole-balancing challenge from being thrown in Gabon!) Cliff, who's played more NBA games than Michael Jordan, only narrowly managed to out-shoot Spencer. Maybe it was Jeff's incessant coaching from the sidelines that distracted him? The man has hosted Rock & Roll Jeopardy and Survivor; ESPN is the obvious next step in his Trivial Pursuit-like journey through television. Or maybe it was how the challenge was subliminal plugging for CBS' March Madness tourney? Regardless, Cliff should be even more ashamed than Spencer for missing those shots.

Speaking of ashamed… Sarah. Sarah should be ashamed. She's running around like a chicken with her head cut off (or twisted off, in the case of the Beauty tribe. Also, how ridiculous was the whole egg debacle? So ridiculous). She's fallen right into Tony's trap and is gunning for Cliff/Lindsay. She turned to Woo, an established Cliff-Hanger(™), and made some pretty convincing arguments towards getting him out. All of these, however, conflict with my pro-tips.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #5: Don't throw the challenge. You will lose momentum and you will lose sleep and you will lose numbers and you will lose the game. Unless you're Richard Hatch and you've established an endgame where the only way you win a million dollars is if you drop out of the final challenge, give it your all. Cliff won't go on an Immunity run post-merge and you can easily blindside him then.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #6: Celebrity = Goat. Remember how I suggested you find the most likable person on the island and quickly dispose of him/her? This rule trumps that one. There is NO WAY a celebrity will defeat a single mom or a college student in a jury situation. Cliff has (or had and lost) millions of dollars, and no matter how well he plays, he's not getting another big check. Lisa Whelchel played strong enough to garner at least a few votes in Philippines, but the fact she was a former child star (and, worse, lied about it) nullified any jury traction. You've gotta be a real scumbag to lose a jury vote to a celeb -- in which case, there's no way you'd ever win Survivor.

But it looks like Woo's on board… I think? Watching him scuffle away from Sarah, shouting "WE'RE GOOD!", when Tony approached leads me to believe he's a nervous player. Nervous players are easily swayed. Once Cliff approaches Woo with another deal, Woo's probably jumping back in the (sinking) canoe with him.

So far, Tony's plan is working. Sarah is off his trail and targeting Cliff. Woo is apparently intimidated by his presence. His house of cards is immaculately constructed. By swearing on his badge and talking about "dragging dreams through the mud" he's shown shades of Jonny Fairplay and Tyson, in addition to his already Hantz-ian behavior. But, to me, it all feels so forced, so unnatural, so… pathetic? Tony is a good cop trying to play bad cop. I'm not buying it.

Which brings us to the Brains, in last again thanks to J'Tia. Not since Crystal Cox has a contestant been so spectacularly bad at challenges. Sure, swimming is hard. Puzzles are hard. But placing a flag on a platform and lifting a rope is NOT hard, compared to what Spencer's crotch went through. (For all my Archer fans, this is where you yell "Phrasing!')

The meta commentary from Spencer and Kass at tribal was great. The audience is treated (or sometimes nauseated) by edits handed down from the production gods that foreshadow certain player's worth. We can surmise, for instance, come finale night Jeff won't be handing a million-dollar check to Lindsay. While on the island, in the moment, Lindsay is just as viable a contender as anybody else. How can you possibly predict who's going to help your game?

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #7: Know Your Survivor History. Kass and Tasha racked their brains over whether a merge or tribe swap was coming. The answer, to Survivor super fans, is an obvious yes. There have only been two other seasons in which 18 players were divided among 3 tribes, All Stars and Philippines, and in both of those seasons, tribes were shuffled after 4 eliminations. With this being the 4th Tribal of the season, odds are Kass and Tasha would soon be playing with new blood -- and as the scenes for next week show us, this is exactly the case.

That doesn't automatically mean keep the loyal J'Tia and cut the alienated Spencer. The shuffles in question weren't your run of the mill tribe swaps -- in each instance, the last-place tribe in a reward challenge would be absorbed into the other tribes. If Kass, Tasha and their third amigo lost the challenge, two of them go to Team Beauty (or whatever the name we actually have to learn now), one to team Brawn, to even things out 7-7. In order to stay intact, they need to win. To win, frankly, they need Spencer.

Spencer gets MVP this week for not only putting on a good show at the Immunity challenge, but also convincing Kass and Tasha he's not jumping ship the first chance he gets. And I believe him! He doesn't seem live a spiteful guy, especially because the ladies on the tribe have shown him respect. When Cochran flipped on his Savaii tribe in South Pacific, it was because he'd been mercilessly bullied. Shambo in Samoa, too. I guess that's SURVIVOR PRO TIP #8: Don't Be A Bully. 

In my opinion, the Brains made the right choice. Best case scenario, Spencer seems loyal enough and will probably be more of an asset in socializing and swaying stragglers than J'Tia. Worst case, Spencer is picked off first due to his strength, buying Kass & Tasha 3 more days.

Up For Grabs (Formerly Random Thoughts):

-Episode MVP: Spencer.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, for at least one more week, because of the whole "two cops in the finals" runner. I don't think it's Tony. It's not Lindsay, Cliff, Woo, Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra or Trish. That leaves us with Tasha, Kass, Spencer and Morgan still in the running.

-Historically, cops suck at Survivor. The average placement of acting/former police officers is 14.25 (counting Debb, Maralyn, Jessie, Ken, Amy, Cristina, Betsy and Mark/Papa Bear. Wow, lots of lady cops!)

-Fallen Comrades: You hung in there for as long as you could, girl, and I applaud you for that. Kass and Tasha nearly kept you! You nearly made the tribe swap! There's no telling how far you could have inched along, you poor little pawn. At least you're a winner outside of the game.

-Having two challenges per week is good for most fans of the show, bad for me and the blog, but I obviously still found A LOT to say.

-Did the Brains make the right move? What'll happen in the upcoming tribe swap? And where do chickens come from?? Share your thoughts in the comments or with me on Twitter, @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 3 Strategy Blog - Dot Dot Dot Hmmph

via tfanatic.com

By: Mike Ladue

Making it to the endgame of Survivor is extremely difficult without trust. To quote the idiot college kid from Good Will Hunting (one of my favorite films), "trust is life", which applies exponentially more on the island than in the real world. More so than fire, at least in the pre-merge rounds, trust is what keeps you alive.

We saw it with both David and Garrett last week. Both made moves that alienated them from the rest of their tribes, painting them as untrustworthy and sealing their fates. Sure, J'Tia destroyed all the rice, but everybody kinda expected that of her (see: Kass, Tasha and Garrett's chat in the water). Nobody knew where Garrett's head would be, thus they sent it rolling.

Trust was central to this week's episode, whether the main players in question (Jeremiah for the Beauty tribe and Sarah for the Brawns) realized it or not. In Jeremiah's case, he did. Literally everybody in the tribe believed Jeremiah was acting in his or her best interest.

That's an interesting position to be in. I'm surprised swing votes aren't targeted more often (the best, and only, example I can currently think of is Dolly in Vanuatu, which was so early in the game it hardly mattered). Of course had Jefra, Alexis or LJ spilled the beans they'd be voting for Jeremiah, they'd make the choice for him and he'd side with the outsiders, and vice-versa. The risk is too high.

So did Jeremiah make the right move? Let's look at his options. By voting out Brice, he solidifies himself in a four-person alliance with LJ/Alexis/Jefra, with Morgan once again the odd girl out. Should the Beauty tribe lose again, Morgan's an easy target -- low physical asset, low social prowess, low camp contribution. But smart players should always be thinking two moves ahead, and it's here that Jeremiah may have stumbled.

Jefra found out Jeremiah had been playing both sides, a fact that could seriously come back to bite him. Once Morgan's gone, the Beauties will be that much closer to a merge, where physical strength shifts from favorable to threatening. Jeremiah, then, becomes the outsider, the one who "played both sides" in a guilty by association scenario, the one everyone likes, and thus must be ousted.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #4: Find the most likable person and vote him/her off. This is probably the most controversial Survivor advice there is. But if everybody likes someone, regardless of any other factor, they're the biggest threat to your game. If they make it to the end, they win. 9 times out of 10 juries disregard strategy and vote emotionally. Fabio was a goofy, fun-loving guy whose late Immunity run earned him a win. So was JT. And Bob. Jeremiah could fit that criteria, if given the chance to make it that far. (This is controversial because going against an obvious favorite might draw ire from production. If you're going to oust the season's biggest hero, be prepared to assume the rule of the season's biggest villain).

Anyways, had Jeremiah stuck with Morgan and Brice and eliminated Alexis, he'd be in a majority alliance stacked against LJ and Jefra. As an audience, we know LJ found the Hidden Immunity Idol, and could use it as swift payback against Jeremiah for betraying the foursome. Had he not found the idol, moving forward with 2 stragglers is twice as dangerous as with one. Another loss would probably seal Jefra's fate. Whoever survived would itch to join Brains / Brawn and better their situation (a la Shambo). It's worth noting that misfit alliances tend to crumble (a la Timbira, Fang and nearly Casaya). Sticking with who he fits with may be the simplest, most natural choice.

Unfortunatlely, Jeremiah is pretty much damned either way. In this day and age, being a young, fit, likable male is the worst position for a Survivor contestant. After 20+ seasons of dominance, the tide has turned. This is the first time the first three contestants voted off were all male. Being the swing means you're in the middle, and unless you're Sandra Diaz-Twine, it's extremely difficult to hold that position to the endgame.

Brice, our narrator from last week, established an outcast bond with Morgan and a southern bond with Jeremiah. Put another way, he made 40% of all the right moves. Alexis may not have reached out and takes strategy with him, but he obviously hadn't tried connecting with her, either. Social butterfly he was not, as the Survivor greats are those who get on everybody's good side. Look at Kim Spradlin, Tom Westman, Aras Baskauskas, Yul Kwon, or J.T. Thomas. Instead, his Tribal confrontation with her was awkward, as if he knew he'd lost the war. I'll miss his candor at Tribal and sassiness in confessionals. But he failed to earn the trust of his tribe's majority, so there's no excuse to make for his early boot.

Trust comes into play at the Brawn tribe as well. Tony confided his cop identity in Sarah, who claimed to have "Cop-dar", from the makers of Gaydar. She took this small victory and ran with it, not realizing he packaged several small lies with his larger truth. His story about Cliff and Lindsay plotting against her? Total bull. Props to Tony for stirring the pot within an otherwise fully-functioning tribe, at least challenge-wise.

But for some reason, the show seems less inclined to give Tony his credit. Sure, he's gotten personalized hashtags like "#CopsRUs" (aka the worst alliance name ever. Seriously. If I ever make it on the show, I'm teaming up with other tall gangly men to form the Daddy Long Leg Brigade, Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Natalie be damned). The editing, specifically the music cues, paint a different picture.

Maybe it's just me, but Sarah comes off as way more likable than Tony. Tony gets Russell-like confessionals, without the Russell-like music cues, promos, or production favor. He's more reminiscent of Gabon's Ace than Samoa's Russell. He's downright dunce-like. Then again, Sarah comes off as Palau's Stephenie: strong, likable (lovable?) woman who gets dealt a bad hand.

I see the Tony/Sarah story going one of three ways:

1. Sarah catches Tony in his lies and blindsides him (possibly as early as next week, as Sarah targets a "him" to Woo. Is she naive enough to go after Cliff directly to his ally?)

2. Tony blindsides Sarah, burning that bridge come jury time (a la Chris and Julie in Vanuatu)

or, least likely,

3. Sarah and Tony reach the finals together.

Last week I narrowed the winner pick down between Sarah and Kass. Of the two, Sarah is the one I'd feel comfortable still backing, and this pick to win a Final Tribal over Tony. Kass seemed out of touch with Tasha, the new HBIC of the Brains tribe. I guess it all comes down to who Tasha feels she can trust more deeply.

Random Thoughts:

-MVP: LJ, for finding the HII and keeping his alliance intact through Tribal.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, with Tasha surpassing Kass for second place. Spencer still seems like a future All-Star, not a current season winner.

-Fallen Comrades: Brice just didn't click. Socially, he seemed too aggressive to gel with the laid-back pretty boys and girls. It's a fine line between missing out and over-strategization, and Brice erred too far towards the latter. I'm sure he'll be hilarious on Twitter!

-The vertical maze was DOPE, and designed by a dream-teamer, apparently.

-Props to the Brains for practicing the challenge. Did it help? Not really, as they made up time on the puzzle. But they're definitely using their knowledge of the game's ins and outs to their advantage.

-Splitting votes is always so risky, and we've seen it go wrong so many other times, I partly was disappointed for it to work so well against Brice tonight. Alexis displayed a firm grasp of the game's rules, though. You go girl!

-I made a few mentions to music cues this week, so it's worth mentioning the departure of Russ Landau, Survivor's resident composer since the very first season. From what I've gathered, production felt they'd amassed enough music over the past 27 cycles to fill the silences. Obviously that didn't work as planned, since we were treated to unoriginal music during the Brains tribe's water-tossing segment. Landau's loss is immeasurable to the Survivor brand and one I'm already mourning greatly.

-Did Jeremiah make the right move? Are you down with Cops-R-Us? Share your opinions in the comments, or with me personally on Twitter: @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 1&2 Recap - How Do You Solve A Problem Like J'Tia?

via survivorfandom.com

By: Mike Ladue

Survivor players come in all shapes in sizes, and rarely can you predict on Day 1 who will be left standing on Day 39. Not only is there a social game to be played, there’s a television show going on, with twists and turns designed to keep audiences tuned in and contestants doing stupid things.

That being said, if you said J’Tia would survive through those TWO Tribal Councils, on a tribe of people whose collective IQ is 130, I’d laugh in your face. J’Tia was responsible for the awful shelter. J’Tia was the reason the tribes lost not one but TWO Immunity challenges. J’Tia is the reason Luzon is going riceless for the foreseeable future.

Dividing the three tribes into Brain / Brawn / Beauty was an inspired decision by production. Whenever Survivor can “settle a question” like men vs. women, fan vs. favorite, hero vs. villain, or white vs. black vs. asian vs. Hispanic, the results are usually Survivor gold. (Or at least they are the first time; for every Amazon and Micronesia, there’s a One World and Caramoan.)

The Brawn tribe is aggressive, both in challenges and in camp. Sarah literally interrogates Tony, a fellow police officer posing as a construction worker, while Lindsay (a Flicka Flame / Courtney Marit hybrid) and Trish (Sherri 2.0?) get in a fight over… what, exactly? Trish just antagonizes Lindsay? Between that and the intro shot/accompanying sound effect of Trish getting whacked by a branch, Trish is an early contender for a Final Tribal zero-vote getter.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #1: Be yourself. Tony lying about his profession will do him no favors, mostly because he’s going to get so unbelievably bored over 39 days (or however long he survives, probably far fewer) that the truth will force its way out. Cliff was honest about his past and subsequently earned a cult-like following, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Boston Rob. Tony got off on the wrong foot with Sarah, and after injuring his other in the challenge, he’ll soon be left without a leg to stand on. (Yay for pedal/crural puns!)

The Beauty tribe is full of solipsistic, silicon-stuffed, surprisingly strategic … Survivors. Brice has emerged as our narrator, eloquently sizing up his fellow contestants with flair. After pouncing on Morgan (does she resemble a Kardashian to anyone else?), the only other outcast in the tribe, he set his sights on Jeremiah, noting, “country folk have to stick together.” In fact, three of our most beautimous contestants -- Brice, Jeremiah and Jefra – hail from Southern states. This is CBS subliminally pandering to their large Southern audience by calling them the most attractive in the country! You can’t fool me, Moonves!

It’s also the only tribe where the hidden immunity idol went unfound. Apparently this season will feature four idols: one at each original camp and one, available post-merge, which can be used after the votes are read like the Deitz/Kwon idols of yore. Yes, there are too many idols. No, I don’t need to explain why. But I will explain…

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #2: Idol > Food. As hazardous as Hidden Immunity Idols are to the game’s theory, never, ever pass up the opportunity to get your hands on one. From a game standpoint, it gives you an extra buffer of protection – especially if you can find it before your tribemates arrive, as Garrett did. From a production standpoint, having an idol forces you into the Survivor narrative. Will you play it? Will you give it up? Will you be blindsided? It may put a target on your back, but it’ll plant you deeper in the audience’s consciousness, which only increased your chances at Fan Favorite and All-Stars perks.

Garrett chose the idol over food. He found said idol. He deflected idol panic onto David. He beasted in those challenges. And yet, ironically, he left the game without an idol to his name, kicked from a tribe with 0 bags of rice.

What went wrong?

Just about everything. David made the first mistake in alienating Garrett at the (Tocantins-reminiscent) insta-faux-vote. While Sarah’s vote for Trish and LJ’s vote for Morgan made common sense, David expelled Garrett, the physically fit pro poker player, leaving him on a tribe with three not particularly athletic young women and a twentysomething chess wizard.

David voted as such because he was focused on the last 2/3 of the game, at which point physical players become threats. For the life of me, I can’t process how this is a good move for David. To get to those last 2/3 of the game, you must make it through the opening 1/3. He weakens his tribe by eliminating a tall, buff guy, who is an asset in winning physical challenges, which your tribe will face early and often. 

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #3: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Survivor is a test of your endurance, not just of the elements, or of each other, but of yourself. David has nobody to blame for his dumb move alienating Garrett than himself. Garrett expressed extreme boredom that led to over-strategization and paranoia (the Colton effect). Tasha lashed out when stifled, rather than biding her time. J’Tia nearly pushed Kass past the breaking point when she dumped all the rice in the fire. Even Spencer (whom reminds me of myself, and I’m pissed his inclusion drastically limits the chances I’ll ever get on) was quick to call out his ally Garrett’s flakiness at Tribal. Kass has proven to be the most calm, cool and collected of the bunch, not even letting J’Tia’s rash decisions sway her inner compass.

Whether that compass is aligned correctly is another story. Kass avenged fallen friend David and blindsided Garrett, leaving her on a tribe with tight allies Tasha and J’Tia and Spencer, adrift. This isn’t a great position for her, given J’Tia’s observable challenge/camp/social prowess.

Would the alternative have been better? Well, yes, a bit. A strong Garrett/Spencer/Kass alliance had Tasha as a buffer should Luzon lose yet another Immunity challenge. If the three managed to make the latter two-thirds of the game, Garrett would receive the target David had predicted. If they managed to make the finals, could you imagine Garrett pleading his case to a jury? He could barely keep his thoughts straight at a regular Tribal. She’d destroy him in jury votes.

But J’Tia survives, against all odds. She’s the kind of person who, in a regular, 8 vs. 8 season, probably would have been voted out. She’s your average Survivor pawn, and a group of average players would strike her down early for a minimal advantage. On a tribe of chess champions targeting bishops, knights, and castles, she floats by. If that carries her to the last 2/3, those Beautys/Brawnys better watch out. When the pawn finally inches all the way across the board, it can become as powerful as a Queen.

Random Thoughts:

-Welcome, new readers! I haven't covered Survivor since Philippines but am excited to follow this cast through what seems to be a wild season. I use "I" a lot, which is totally not kosher for television criticism, but Survivor is so much more than TV. I may not offer professionalism, but I've got pretensions, obscure references to past seasons (which I'll try to limit within parentheses, like these!) and "Pro-tips", or things I'd advise future contestants to do, having spent the last 14ish years of my life watching this silliness.

-I don't like explaining challenges. Jeff spends enough time doing that in the episode. I'll talk about strategy, usually latching onto an episode's integral character and judging his/her decisions, based on theoretical alternative options and past outcomes. 

-Grading these episodes feels wrong for some reason, so I'm going to stop. 

-Overall, I'm psyched for season 28. So many fresh characters! So many questionable choices! 

-Team #TrueDetectiveS2 (Sarah and Tony) > Team Southern Belles > Team WooCliff

-Has a three-tribe breakdown ever been successful? It's still early, I guess, but Saboga in All-Stars and Matsing in Philippines both royally sucked pre-merge a la Luzon.

-Speaking of Luzon, I don't know the other tribe names yet and refuse to look them up. I think one was Solana, which is too close to One World's Salani tribe for me to sleep soundly tonight. 

-Fallen Comrades: David needed to get out of his head and spend some time on the island with his fellow castaways. And THAT's why you don't wear a blazer on Survivor! Garrett studied past episodes for hundreds of hours, a level of dedication I must commend. But dude, didn't you see my Pro Tips??

-Episode(s) MVP: Sarah, for her quick read of Tony and challenge dominance. 

-Winner Pick: Not Trish.

OK, fine. I’m torn between Kass and Sarah. Kass reminds me of Denise Stapley, who won Philippines despite (or because of) attending every tribal council. Kass is analytical yet willing to make big moves. We saw David's blindside through her eyes. Garrett's blindside could have been framed as a massive blunder for Kass, but we got some rationalization. This couldn't have been a game-ending move, at least not yet. Sarah got her “I should be on [the Brains] tribe!” quote CC’d, a sign she’s a triple-threat. I’ll leave them at neck and neck until next week.

-As always, hit up the comments with your thoughts, theories and strategic insight. For more TV musings, follow me on Twitter at @miketvladue. 

TV Review: Survivor: Caramoan 26x01: "Fans" vs. "Favorites"

ML- I understand Survivor revisiting one of its strongest twists, the "Fans vs. Favorites" conceit that back in 2008 led to arguably the best season the show ever had. What I don't understand is how production managed to cast so few players that fit into either one of those classifications.

Let's look at the "Favorites" first. Last FvF we were treated to actual fan favorites Cirie, Ozzy, Yau-Man & James, love-to-hate villains Fairplay, Ami & Penner, as well as eye-candy in the form of Parvati, Amanda and Eliza. For the most part these were people who just missed out on the million dollars -- Ozzy and Amanda both made Final Tribal Council, with Yau-Man and Fairplay one spot away and Cirie & Eliza two spots away.

This time only one contestant made the FTC in his previous appearance: Phillip Sheppard of Redemption Island. Malcolm was one spot away and Erik three, but for the most part these are low-ranking contestants in all metrics, specifically game placement.

Put another way: The average placement of the original 10 Favorites was 4.5. With the addition of Francesca, this season had an average of 7.4, and without her still only a 6.22.

Judging by how the episode went down, its clear CBS took great care in crafting this cast. The favorites are a mess of a tribe, chock-filled with the anxious (Cochran, Erik), the proud (Francesca, Brenda) and the borderline-psychotic (Phillip, Brandon, Corinne). Malcolm, Andrea and Dawn seem like the most well-adjusted, adept Survivor players, and I think our winner may come from that triad.

The best part of the overlong 90-minute premiere was the pre-tribal council scramble. The target flipped from Phillip to Fran to Andrea within minutes, allowing us to see this least-composed tribe ever deal with the first (and probably easiest) vote of the season.

Phillip actually impressed me off the bat, implementing the things he learned and witnesses first-hand from Boston Rob back in Nicaragua into a code from which to base his gameplay on. The BR Code, as he called it, went as follows:

Rule 1: Make a big alliance
Rule 2: Make an alliance within your alliance
Rule 3: Turn on alliance members before they have the chance to turn on you

This has absolutely worked for Rob in the past. In All-Stars, Rob and Amber were the core of their Chapera alliance and sacrificed Alicia, Big Tom, Rupert and Jenna all in their pursuit for the final 2. In Redemption Island, Rob maintained his strong alliance as long as possible and carried the two weakest competitors to the finale, where he won soundly.

That being said, Phillip is no Rob. He doesn't have the charm or ingenuity Rob displayed in all four of his seasons. When he proposed a four-person alliance of himself, Andrea, Corinne and Malcolm, I thought it was a smart move. When he branched out to Cochran, Dawn and Erik, however, it was clear Phillip was in way over his head. Erik didn't even believe him, and Erik still carries the heavy crown awarded to "dumbest player ever". We got a lot of Phillip this week, but it was to set up his epic rematch with Francesca and establish the flaw in his character from the onset.

Poor Francesca. I hope that rock went down smooth. Her fatal flaw was playing too hard from the onset, as well as being in the same tribe as Phillip. Put yourself in, say, Cochran's shoes: Do you side with the crazy Specialist who isn't going to garner many jury votes and will always be a bigger target than you, or the intellectual, well-spoken Francesca stirring up trouble? I hope Francesca holds no grudges against the tribemates who voted against her, because I think they were just making the right move at the right time. Easier said than done, though.

So does that make Francesca the worst player of all-time, seeing as she was voted of 1st twice now? If you're in the camp that declares Sandra the best player for winning twice, yes, it fits your definition. I don't think she's necessarily the worst; at least she went down swinging both times, unlike quitters such as Purple Kelly, Janu, Osten, Kathy and Na'Onka. She also made it to Day 3 twice, unlike Wanda and Jonathan of Palau and Kourtney, who was medivacced during the first challenge in One World. Let's not kid ourselves: Francesca is not a great player, and I doubt she was nor will she ever be anyone's "favorite." But she's not the worst, despite what statistics may say.

Onto the "Fans"... judging by the cast biographies and pre-show interviews I've read, few of these people seem to be actual superfans of Survivor. I find it hard to believe female fans of the show look like the four hot blondes or the buff tools bouncing around the island. Matt, maybe. Michael? Ok, sure. Reynold? No way.

Fan or not, Reynold already carved himself into a nice alliance of four along with "not the prettiest" Allie and the "hottest" of the island Eddie and Hope. These cool kids splash in the water and flirt with their hormones all a-flutter, not giving a rat's ass about the majority of the camp glaring at them from the beach.

This is a huge flashback to, again, FvF 1, where Parvati/Amanda/James/Ozzy shacked up and Penner/Ami/Eliza/Yau-Man tried turning the tide against them. Here, Sherri and Julia have both been shown ready to take down the PYTs, with Michael in the middle as a possible Fairplay, positioned to join whichever side benefits him and his buddy Matt. With so much complexity going to the fans this early, might one of them rise up and outlast a favorite?

I doubt it. The fan we got the most footage of was Shamar, whose larger-than-life personality came off as pretty negative, even though he did help get the fire going. Mostly, he sat back while work was getting done and bickered over fire vs. shelter. News flash, Shamar: On Survivor you need fire AND shelter AND water AND an alliance. Better work on that last one or else you won't be around to enjoy any of the other three.

While not as confident as last year with Denise, I think I'm ready to make a winner pick for Caramoan: Dawn Meehan. While she didn't get a lot of visibility on her own, she received a pretty glowing review from Cochran, who is one of the best narrators on the Favorites tribe, next to Malcolm. Cochran noted how she was willing to work with him despite their South Pacific history and that her newly-harnessed cut-throat personality represented "A New Dawn." That right there, to me, is the stuff winners are made of on this show.

Can the Favorites get their mojo back and win against the Fans? Don't forget, Favorites lost the first Immunity back in Micronesia but went on to dominate post-swap. With so many unpredictable "favorites" and unseasoned "fans", this is sure to go down as one of the messiest seasons in Survivor history. As fans of reality TV know, messy = gold.

Episode Grade: B-
WINNER PICK: Dawn Meehan
Original Airdate: 02/13/13

Want to chat with me about Survivor? Speak up in the comments or follow me on Twitter @miketvladue for live-tweets from this show and thoughts on most everything else pop-culture. Thanks for reading!

TV Catch-Up: Survivor Philippines: Fate of the Final Four

image courtesy of survivoroz

ML- We have our final four! I think this is one of the best final fours in recent memory. It's also the final four I predicted back at the merge! Here's a note: If they focus on a final four/three pact positively, they most likely make it to the end (stretching back to Tagi, Colby/Tina/Keith, Boran, V/Neleh/Kathy/Pappy/Sean, Chuay Ghan, Romber, Aitu, Todd/Amanda, Black Widow Brigade, JT/Stephen, Foa Foa Foursome, Boston Rob + The Rob Zombies, Upolu, Kim/Chelsea). Alliances shown negatively can generally be deciphered by their music cues- think about the Four Horsemen of FIji or even Yau/Penner/Ami/Eliza in Micronesia. Flourishing music - endgame, sporadic frumpy tones = bumbling idiots filling up the jury. Anyway, I'd say everyone has a decent shot of swaying enough jurors with the right Final Tribal speech. But what should each person say to make his/her case?

The jury so far consists of RC, Jeff Kent, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter and now Abi-Maria. That's 4 former Tandang members and 3 former Kalabal, with at least one more to join. According to Dalton Ross at Entertainment Weekly, there's only one more person joining the jury and a Final 3. That's surprising, as only two seasons out of the past 24 have done that: Australia, which added 3 extra days, and China, for reasons I don't remember. That being said, it's not unprecedented.

One school of thought is that there was too much story to tell that they decided to split things up differently in editing. Or, perhaps something happens at Final 4 that takes a bit of time. It would make sense for there to be a tie vote, seeing as how its 2 Tandang vs. 2 Matsing left, and a fire-making challenge would be an epic precursor to the finale. Please, Survivor gods, let Skupin be subjected to a fire-making challenge AND WIN. That would be such poetic justice, the man finally conquering fire that took him out of the game over 10 years ago.

As a metric for determining who has the best chances, I'll rank the likelihood of each juror voting for each contestant if he/she makes it to the final 3. If its the person a juror is most likely to vote for, that person gets a 4, while least likely gets a 1. Make sense? Let's start with Skupin.

image courtesy of survivor fever.net

Mike Skupin is a returning player, and all we've seen this season is animosity towards returning players. On his tribe, he's been regarded most positively by RC, the first juror. He's also gotten positivity from Lisa and Penner, but the favor with the latter man seems to have turned. Contestants in the opposing Tandang faction of Abi-Maria, Artis and Pete have all spoke ill of him, especially Abi last night calling him an idiot and a moron. Survivor doesn't like to show us winners who are stupid, unless it's funny like Fabio. Fabio even got confessionals where he alluded to his goofiness being a ploy to lay low in the game. Skupin is getting a redemption story, but one that seems more personally satisfying than indicative of Survivor glory.

RC: 4 (Loves Skupin)
Jeff Kent: 1 (Hates returning players)
Artis: 1 (Hates Skupin, according to post-show interviews)
Pete: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 2 (Betrayed by Skupin, may respect his game)
Carter: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria: 2 (Called him and idiot and a moron)
Juror Tally: 12

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-Despite the target on returning players, he made it to the Final 3.
-Survival experience benefitted Tandang tribe, who never went to Tribal pre-merge
-Underdog in his alliance, made moves to better his position

Things he should avoid:
-Holier-than-thou attitude. Don't call Pete, Abi or Artis "bad people", even though they were.
-The reward challenge where he made the rice trade. While arguably a good move, it pissed off all of his tribe mates.
-"Need". Skupin has a big family but is well-off.

Prediction: He'll only win if he: stays humble, pledges allegiance to Tandang yellow, owns his moves as self-preservation and is sitting next to both Malcolm and Denise. He needs Lisa on the jury to help garner favor for him, which probably isn't a likely outcome. With so much contempt for him and his gameplay, I don't think he'll be able to persuade any haters.

image courtesy of survivor dean

Malcolm is charismatic, athletic and a fan of the show. Mike and Lisa's decision to keep Denise in an attempt to beat Malcolm was terribly risky. On one hand, she definitely has a better shot of defeating Malcolm. But that also guarantees at least one of the original Matsing members is in the Final 3, if not both of them. Wouldn't you rather take your chances up against Malcolm knowing you'd have a better shot at Final 3 vs. Abi? Everyone is worried about Malcolm, as they should be. His edit has been very positive but not stellar. He comes off as cocky, something very few winners are shown as -- mainly the villainous ones like Hatch and Heidik, and Malcolm is no villain. His decision to turn on Denise could come back to bite him if word gets back to her that he was wishy-washy.

RC: 2 (Would more likely vote Skupin or Lisa, her Tandang brethren)
Kent: 3 (Physical threat, but he spent more time with Denise)
Artis: 4 (Not voting for Skupin, probably respects physicality)
Pete: 4 (More bitter towards Skupin/Lisa, probably respects physicality)
Penner: 1 (Did you see him flip off Malcolm at TC?)
Carter: 4 (Betrayed by Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria:4 (I'd like to put definite, but nobody knows where Abi's head will be at. Her voting Skupin doesn't make sense and she hates Denise. It's either Lisa or Malcolm)
Juror Tally: 22

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-So far, he's won the most immunities. The past 4 winners have all been the person to go into Final Tribal with the most Immunity Challenges under their belt (overall, the person in the FTC who won the most ICs has won the game 12 times and lost 11. In Panama, Aras and Danielle each had 1 IC win). Skupin/Denise could still possibly tie him. (Another fun fact- the final IC winner has only won the game 10/24 times, 4 of those being the last 4 winners Kim, Sophie, Rob and Fabio).
-Super underdog. He was on a sinking ship at Matsing, made it to Tandang and proved himself physically adept.
-Found HII and never had to play it
-Work his charm

Prediction: If he makes the Final Tribal Council he's a force to be reckoned with. However, he's not getting the hero edit most young male winners get. If he wins, he's being shown more like Aras, which was an anomaly because of bigger characters Cirie and Terry. My guess is Lisa's plan to keep Denise to defeat Malcolm will pay off and he'll head to the jury. If I'm wrong, he wins it all.

image courtesy of thegazette.com

Denise is the biggest underdog in the game. She's been to every Tribal Council of the season, yet she hasn't been edited as a cancer bringing the team down. Instead, her regard has been almost unanimously positive, except from Abi-Maria, the villain. It's unfortunate that her edit has been centered around just Abi bashing the past few weeks, as a well-rounded winner needs more oomph. Then again, Coach had all the oomph and Sophie pulled out the win.

RC: 1 (I don't remember any interaction between the two, she'd vote Mike/Malcolm first)
Kent: 4 (Only member of the Final Four he aligned with & spoke highly of)
Artis: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Pete: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Carter: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Abi-Maria: 1 (Rivalry with Denise)
Juror Tally: 18

What she needs to stress in her final speech:
-Went to EVERY TRIBAL COUNCIL and emerged unscathed.
-Loves to bring out Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. She's done all 3 very well
-Very articulate and concise when it comes to feelings, can probably use that to sway folks
-Loyalty
-Need of the $$

I think Denise has a great shot at winning, even against Malcolm. She is well-spoken and needs to emphasize her story. Play on the bitterness of the Tandang and appeal to the Kalabaw. Her edit, like Malcolm's, leaves me with some concern. They're both being overshadowed by someone, who doesn't deserve the win but may just eek it out.

image courtesy of haveuheard.net

Lisa. She's gotten so much focus in this game. Is she merely a great narrator on a personal journey, or can this woman, who has proclaimed over and over again how bad she is at this game, really win?

RC: 3 (Close with Skupin/Lisa)
Kent: 2 (She didn't flip on him but they weren't allies)
Artis: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Pete: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Penner: 4 (Shown connecting with her the most. I think he will win this or lose this for her, like Erik did to Natalie in Samoa)
Carter: 2 (Still betrayed)
Abi-Maria: 3 (Always placated by Lisa)
Juror Tally: 18

She's tied with Denise, making the ranking:
Malcolm 22
Denise/Lisa 18
Skupin 12

Which seems about right. Malcolm should win, but his edit isn't a runaway so I don't think he will. Skupin won't win, and we know that because everyone keeps saying that. So Denise and Lisa are evenly matched. Lisa has the editors on her side. She's been shown coming around to the game, especially with the help of her brother, Justice, who needs to be on my dream Family season (the cast of which I'll post below, for those interested).

As bitter as people are, I think Lisa will sway them. She did a great job of mentioning Tandang's winning streak, pleasing Pete and Artis. Previously, I thought she'd get 4th place with a Holly Hoffman redemption edit, but this seems bigger than that.

My biggest problem is that she hasn't made any moves. She's talked a big game but done nothing. She never had to vote until the merge. It was Michael who jumped at the opportunity to drop Artis, not her. She's screwed up with Malcolm's idol and shouldn't have told Penner he was going. Her post-Justice plan to axe Malcolm also didn't pan out over the course of two weeks. She should be getting torn apart by the jury, but the edit is treating her as if simply trying is good enough in Survivor. Its not.

My gut tells me Denise will win. The editing points to Lisa. The stats at this point say Malcolm has the best chance, but it's not a runaway and he needs that Immunity. I don't know about you, but I'm excited to see how this all shakes out. Who do you think will score the most jury votes and enter the Survivor winner's circle? Who will win Fan Favorite? My guess -- Malcolm. And how many people will get asked 0 questions at the finale? I'm thinking Roxy, Katie, Artis and Carter are all getting the shaft.

Leave some love below! Follow me on Twitter @miketvladue where I'll be live-tweeting the finale this Sunday at 8:00 EST! Check back next week, where I'll probably be trying to rationalize a Mike Skupin win. I'll also give an updated ranking of the winners and probably make a bunch of references to seasons you don't remember. It'll be a blast! Thanks for reading, happy finale!!

12/12/12 Episode grade: B+
Episode MVP: Malcolm

~Survivor: Family Edition Dream Cast~
1. Greg Buis' Sister, who left the creepy video message
2. Colby's Mom Gaye, who slept in the Aztek with him
3. Big Tom's son Bucky Bo, the craziest kid around
4. Kathy's son Patrick, who was just so apathetic about everything Survivor
5. Brian's stripper wife, because why not
6. Fairplay's friend Thunder D, because "she died, dude"
7. Rupert's wife Laura, because she got slobbery kisses all over her
8. Jenn's sister, because it would mean something
9. Shane's son Boston Powers, because he's probably old enough
10. Cirie's husband Honey Bunny, because she wouldn't marry a dud, right?
11. Terry's wife, because she seemed like a gamebot
12. Russell's wife Melanie, because who could marry him?
13. Amanda's sister, because she made all the bird calls
14. Matty's girlfriend, because she got proposed to
15. Taj's husband Eddie George, because famous
16. Colby's brother Reid, because COME ON, REID!!!
17. Fabio's mom, because Dayum
18. Kat's cousin Robby, because he was super weird
19. Lisa's brother Justice, because he rocked
20. Coach's assistant Coach, because WTF

TV Review: Survivor 25x08: Dumb and Dumber

photo courtesy of survivorfandom.com

ML- Lisa, the MVP of tonight's episode despite Penner's miraculous victory, dubbed this the season of Good vs. Evil, the evil being Pete/Abi/Artis and the good everyone else. I wouldn't say they're evil (well, maybe Abi-Maria is) as so much as dumb. So many blunders were made by this alliance tonight, and still they survived unscathed, thanks to the real mastermind, Lisa.

Pete isn't completely idiotic, but he's certainly not the mastermind he claims to be. I bet if I were ever on Survivor I'd end up playing a lot like Pete: overly confident in myself to the camera, thinking I had the game figured out, when really there were countless plans unfolding outside of my awareness. His handling of Abi-Maria, the island's resident she-wolf, has been near perfect; first he turned her against her main ally RC, then he kept her close as a potential Final 3 goat. She seems to have no idea, instead suspecting everyone and everything else of being against her.

His mistake was talking to Malcolm. Lisa put her neck on the line to tell Pete about Malcolm's idol and blindside the poor bastard. Some may see this as a bad move by Lisa, but I disagree- the only reason the whole plan backfired was Pete's stupid ass confronting Malcolm. When Malcolm got flustered and nervous, it seemed like Pete had confirmed his suspicions and would join Lisa's plot.

Nope. To Pete, Malcolm acting suspicious obviously meant he wasn't hiding anything. WAT A TOOL. Malcolm is a personable guy, especially while giving confessionals, but he wears his nerves on his sleeves. He's an easy tell and Pete should have picked up on it.

Instead, the target shifted every three seconds in a genuinely exhilarating segment captured perfectly by the camera crew. Plans changed from Skupin to Malcolm to Kent to Carter to Pete, and by Tribal Council, not even the contestants knew who would be going home.

I was surprised by how candid Lisa was at Tribal. She has been eloquent in her confessionals, much like Denise, Malcolm and Penner, the main reason I like these four so much. She understands the game and knows what must be done to make it to the end- go to the end with less-likable prey. Pete gets it, too, but Pete doesn't understand he's the second-least likable guy on the beach. Anyway, Lisa was honest with everyone about outing Malcolm's idol, playing both sides and possibly messing up her game. For her, honesty seems to be helping a bit.

Honesty did not help Abi-Maria, the ever bigger idiot of the night. First she clearly spelled out the alliance divisions to Malcolm and Mike, and her backtracking to Malcolm did little to persuade him back to the Tandang side. When Malcolm actually showed off the idol for everyone to see, Jeff asked if anyone else wanted to reveal their's. There's no telling what went through Abi-Maria's head to convince her that pulling out her idol was a good idea, but reveal it she did. That goes down as one of the dumbest Tribal Council moves, for me, but since it wasn't a fatal flaw, we'll let it slide in comparison to those done by Erik in Micronesia and Brandon in South Pacific.

Before the vote, a few contestants made last-minute pleas to the group as a whole, speaking in codes regarding "Plan B". When it came time to play the idol... nobody budged. I'd say it was smart for Malcolm and Abi not to use it, as it guarantees them both at least another week.

The votes came down, with 5 for Kent (Pete, Abi-Maria, Artis, Lisa and Skupin), 4 for Pete (Kent, Carter, Malcolm and Denise) and Penner's vote for Abi. Was he truly that out of the loop and thought Abi was the target? Did he throw away his vote as a big middle finger to Jeff Kent ("I could have tied it up for you, but I didn't")? Or was he stirring up trouble, as Abi-Maria will surely go on a witch hunt to track down the voter, a la Lex in Africa? I'm hoping it's the third one, and she delivers and epic meltdown.

Jeff Kent was admired by many, but not so much by me. He misplayed his hand last week and therefore deserves an early ouster. As he said in his final words, he's made over $60 million playing baseball, he doesn't need $1 million (before taxes, as mentioned in a well-timed but poorly-attributed dig to Obama) from this silly little game. Sure, Kent, remind us how successful you were. Keep padding your ego. Probst will probably ask you back for another season.

My prediction from last week was right! Jeff Kent went home, though I expected it to be a lot less confusing than this. My Final 9 prediction was Carter, and I'm still relatively confident in that, provided Jonathan did enough to turn the attention away from him. Who knows where this season is gonna go, but I'm finally coming around to it.

Episode Grade: A-
Episode MVP: Lisa Whelchel
Original Airdate: 11/07/2012

TV Recap: Survivor 25x06 & 25x07: Down to The Final 10

photo courtesy of examiner.com

ML- Many apologies for the belated reviews from the past 2 weeks of Survivor. Scheduling shows in has been difficult with a full schedule, let alone forming reviews. This season has been interesting, but I'm still waiting for it to kick into high gear. The merge episode could be seen as a step in the right direction, or an example of continued mediocre gameplay.

First, a jump back to the previous week, where Katie was eliminated. Kalabaw (which I unintentionally referred to as Kalabal every episode, showing how invested I am in this season) and Tandang faced a stalemate in the big ball Reward Challenge and struck a deal over rice. Tandang, which was consuming ALL OF THE RICE thanks to Skupin's selfish ways, agreed to take rice while Penner and the Kalabaws (awesome band name, by the way) took the big barbeque reward.

I'm surprised at how the deal was edited. Survivor fans know that big feast rewards may seem great going in, but they always go right through contestants' systems, leaving them worse off. A stable cache of rice would be the smarter, less appetizing move. The editors decided to show Skupin as the idiot and Penner as the hero, however. This really doesn't bode well for Skupin's chances at winning the game.

He wasn't in much of a position to win, anyway, but could have been had he and RC joined forces with  Jeff Kent and the Kalabaws (anything "and the Kalabaws" sounds awesome for a band). Jeff Kent had two options: keep himself, Carter, a loyal Penner, Denise, RC and Michael together and boot Pete. Sure, Malcolm is a threat, but for the first week it wouldn't be smart to put Denise in a position of having to backstab her ally. That way, the opposing power alliance of Pete, Abi, Artis and Lisa could be disintegrated, and future blindsides could be in play for Malcolm, Penner and Skupin. Kent and Carter could leisurely stroll to the finals and Kent could win.

Instead, he freaked out over returning players and targeted Jonathan and his idol. It backfired, and he lost a potential ally. Now it's Kent vs. Penner and Tandang has an even greater majority despite losing a number in RC. Denise must be a bad luck charm because all the tribes she's a part of die.

The most important part of the episode was Lisa finding Malcolm's idol and striking a Final 3 deal with him and Denise. This could potentially work out, provided Pete and Abi don't make a surge to the endgame. As Malcolm said, though, going to the finals with either of those ladies could be Survivor suicide, as they'd garner social votes. Lisa is impressing me with her Holly Hoffman-style strategic comeback, but previews for next week show her getting pretty trigger-happy (machete-happy?).

So Final 10. Here are my perfect predictions for how the rest of the season will play out:

10. Jeff Kent. The Penner "slash and burn" preview is a false alarm, as it was for Rory in Vanuatu and Sandra in HvV. Kent is more of a threat since Penner is idol-less.
9. Carter. Kent's lackey.
8. Penner. Goodbye, America's Happy Warrior.
7. Pete. Malcolm/Denise/Lisa pull in Mike to turn the tide.
6. Abi-Maria.
5. Artis.
4. Lisa.
3. Skupin. Returning player fatigue/unlikable
2. Malcolm. Close but...
1. Denise. No cigar. Denise survives every Tribal Council and defeats her former Matsing ally by 1 vote.

Episode Grades: B, B+
Episodes MVP: Jonathan Penner
Original Airdates: 10/24/12 and 10/31/12

TV Review: Survivor 25x05: Everybody Loves an Underdog

ML- The Matsing tribe is no more! Malcolm and Denise were randomly absorbed into Tandang and Kalabal, respectively, but not before Malcolm discovered the Hidden Immunity Idol on the Matsing beach. He and the Tandangs cruised to victory while Kalabal struggled in the challenge due to Katie's ineffectiveness. In the end, it was dirty girl Dawson who got sent packing from the dwindling girl alliance. She may have given Jeff Probst a hug and a kiss, but she went out without ever revealing the dirt on Jeff Kent.

The MVP of the episode was definitely Malcolm, who found the idol as well as acceptance on his new tribe from everyone, including poor bullied RC and naive Pete, who divulged his own idol to Malcolm. He's in a great place and is a major threat to go deep into the end, and could ride his wave of favorability to a win.

The LVP, if thats a thing, belongs to Dana. Having never been on the island playing Survivor, its easy for me to say there would be no conditions that could take me out of the game. However, her severe pains and chills weren't alleviated in the pounding rain, and the tiny country tomboy opted out of continuing, even though the doctors gave her a go-ahead. Not only did she screw over herself, she ruined things for Katie and Dawson on Kalabal. If the red tribe loses again, Katie is in some hot water.

That's all for this week. Kalabal is so divided that it made for a less-than-interesting Tribal. I'm hoping Tandang heads to TV soon so the Abi-RC battle thats been brewing can come to a head.

Episode Grade: B-
Episode MVP: Malcolm
Original Airdate: 10/17/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x04: Swan Prince or Ugly Duckling?

ML- Returning players risk a lot when they sign up for Survivor a second time. Jenna Morasca won season 6 and agreed to return for All-Stars despite her mom being sick with cancer (She ultimately quit and made it home in time to say goodbye before her mom passed). Those blessed with golden edits their first time around like J.T. and James open themselves up to be portrayed in completely different lights; as bumbling idiots and sore losers.

I think the worst thing to happen to a returning player is to be disappointed by an early elimination. Did anybody really enjoy the first half of All-Stars, as Tina, Rudy, Rob C, Jenna M, Hatch, Colby, Ethan and Jerri ALL went home pre-merge, while the likes of Alicia, Jenna L, Shi-Ann, Amber, Lex and Big Tom took the top spots? Same goes for Fairplay and Yau-Man in Micronesia, and Cirie and Tom in Heroes vs. Villains. Going home early is a hit to your confidence, as if maybe the first appearance was the fluke and this is your true measure as a player.

For Russell Swan, however, he doesn't even get that comparison. His first outing he failed on the physical level. This time he failed again, even worse, on the social and mental level. He wasn't by any means "All-Star" worthy to come back to play, and a second shot at the title affirmed he is just another mediocre competitor. His post show interviews have been painful to read and listed to -- the man clearly loved the game, he just had no understanding of his position in it or, most unfortunately, how to play it well.

Granted, he wasn't blessed with the most skilled competitors, but I'd choose Denise and Malcolm over any of the other blokes (minus Penner) any day. Tribes like Koror in Palau have been stacked with misfits and gone on to dominate under proper leadership. As much as he wants to be, Russell Swan is no leader. He was the ugly duckling of Survivor hoping to finally get his break, and this wasn't it.

Denise and Malcolm are in trouble. If the tribes stay the same, eventually they'll have to compete head-to-head in a fire building challenge for who gets to stay. If there is a tribe dissolve, they'll be separated without an idol and left to fend for themselves against the former six Tandang or Kalabal members. Chances are that they'll have some trouble fitting in.

The challenge was incredibly close, and one of the best finishes the show has had in a while. Many things about the episode were great; I mostly loved the wordless opening of Matsing members seated in the rain just trying to cope with their existence. Once upon a time, this was a show about real people taken out of their element and most of the episodes focused on camp life and cultural discrepancies. Today, everyone has either played before or is a D-list celebrity or aspiring model/actor and the episodes highlight the drama and cut out the "reality". Hearing Russell's story to Denise about punching someone as a kid was almost awkward for today's Survivor, but would have fit in nicely in season 1. As much as I love strategy, this was a welcome escape.

Tandang is full of strategy. Pete has surpassed my expectations and become the troublemaker of the tribe. He's got Abi-Maria, Artis and possibly Lisa under his wing and has successfully framed RC as a liar. RC is too dumb to suspect foul play and fails to adapt to the changing dynamics of the tribe. Abi-Maria is not your friend or ally, RC. The sooner you get that through your brain and figure out where the true power lies the better chance you have at avoiding elimination.

Kalabal has some strategic rumblings as well, mostly on the part of Jeff and Penner. The Hidden Immunity Idol-bearing Veteran and the wounded baseball legend have teamed up along with the most invisible player in recent memory, Carter, to form a boys club. Dana, Dawson and Katie are rightly suspicious and formed their own posse. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Denise or Malcolm is absorbed into this tribe and if the gender battle continues.

So which tribe is better positioned now? It'll be hard to pick a better twosome than Malcolm/Denise for challenges, but it makes more sense that there will be a dissolve. Honestly, whichever tribe acquires Malcolm will probably be the one to succeed. With tribes even again, there's nowhere to hide your weak players, so the manpower will prevail in the increasingly physical challenges of recent seasons. Shame, because I, like Russell, am willing to write over a check to Denise in the off chance she makes the finale.

Episode Grade: B+
Episode MVP: The Editors, for including the slo-mo shot and the nostalgic scenes
Original Airdate: 10/10/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x03: The Four-Finger Plan

ML- Big props to Malcolm this week, who was able to put the good of the tribe as a whole (and himself in the long run) ahead of his sexual desires and boot out Angie. It was no surprise to the audience watching that Angie was going, especially after her opening confessional where she boasted "each and every one of my tribe mates trusts me and I trust them". Yeah, okay. If I ever went on Survivor, I'd be in a Jamie Newton-level constant state of paranoia, never telling the camera I was confident about anything so they could never use it against me in the edit.

Pete emerged as a threat tonight as he formed a tentative alliance between himself, Abi-Maria, Artis and Lisa, alienating RC and his eventual threat, Skupin. Abi-Maria is in the best place of everyone on that tribe, having positioned herself into 2 alliances and holding the Hidden Immunity Idol she found about thanks to RC's clue. Unfortunately for her, she's in a Natalie Bolton-level constant state of batshit craziness. I don't see her or Peter, who now reminds me of Gregg Carey in Palau, taking this all the way to the end.

On Kalabal, Penner was still on the outs. I have to praise him for managing to say the phrase My Ass!, though, while mentioning how his aforementioned body part was hurting from the shelter. When Jeff and Dana noticed the bull emblem was gone, they alerted the tribe that he probably had a hidden immunity idol. Jeff was respectful, not angry, noting how Penner as a returning player was playing smarter than everyone else.

When Penner later approached Jeff, it was a good move for the veteran to try and gain favor, but unfortunately his new "alliance" didn't feel the same way. A four-fingered shake, as it seems, is not a real binding handshake because men need to use all 5 fingers to shake for real. The logistics behind this baffle me and I can only come to the conclusion that Jeff is an idiot.

Matsing continued their bad-luck streak by losing their boat, as well as the Immunity challenge and accompanying rewards. Momentum is probably the most important factor in Survivor, as it affects morale and contestants' mindsets in unbelievable ways. Matsing is in deep trouble, even without Angie to keep the average IQ down.

It's hard to pick a favorite to win in the game right now. Statistically, it doesn't make sense to put money on any of the Matsing members. Kalabal just isn't getting the screentime or story lines they need to signify a late-game surge. Tandang gets a lot of strategy, so the best winner bet probably comes from here. Is it Pete? Skupin? RC? Abi? Lisa? Definitely not Artis.

My money is still on Denise, despite the odds. She kept Malcolm in line, dominated the challenge and keeps me interested in her as a player despite her negative attractiveness. She needs to stop mentioning her practice and the money she makes back home, however, or else people will never give her the vote based on lack of need.

Episode Grade: C+
Episode MVP: Abi-Maria and Pete
Original Airdate: 10/03/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x02: Booty Blinded By Booby Traps

ML-

Roxxxxxxxanne
You don't have to call out the showmance
Subtly sew distrust,
It'll be more effective than freaking out at Tribal Council and alienating everyone by speaking in tongues

Okay, I may have botched that song a little bit, but I haven't had a lot of water today... so...

Matsing (aka Tribe 1 for either arbitrary or spoilery reasons), fell apart even further this week as a showmance splintered trust and nobody stepped up to lead in the challenge. Worst of all, the tribe doesn't even have cookies.

The tragic thing is, Roxy was completely right about Malcolm and Angie. A pair, especially an athletic relationship, is either the most dangerous or the most vulnerable position in the game. In a tribe of 5, everyone needed to unite against Malcolm/Angie, which was never going to happen thanks to my winner pick, Sex Therapist Denise. I assume she saw Malcolm and Angie as potential clients and the subjects of her next book, Love in the Wild: How to Survive Being Backstabbed By Sea Snakes and Get Crabs Out Of Your Buff. She also astutely pointed out that, despite Malcolm being her main ally, being the odd-person out in a threesome is what the sex therapists refer to as the worst. But the timing wasn't right to betray her only ally, so Roxy had to go.

Roxy's pre-challenge behavior was elimination-worthy on its own. After a terrible rainstorm, Roxy began speaking in tongues and praising the lord like Jameka from Big Brother 8. Nothing against her religion, but speaking in tongues can be a red flag that someone's head may not be 100% in the game of Survivor. Take Dr. Denise, for example. She says that anything that gets her to the end of the game will be of her own doing, not God's or anyone elses.

Over on Tandang, Lisa further distanced herself from her tribemates by sitting alone at the well and crying, which has made the majority alliance go from 4 to 5 with Artis now included. If Tandang loses, Lisa is in trouble, unless she can pull some type of Holly Hoffman maneuver and turn her sorrows into strength. Meanwhile, Abi-Maria and RC Became the most dysfunctional alliance since Russell & Parvati. All RC wanted was to trust Abi-Maria with her idol clue, but Abi-Maria was so threatened by RC's bond with Skupin that she threatened to kill her if ever betrayed. Healthy stuff right there. Abi-Maria is a little too crazy for this game, but makes good TV and I'd love to see her blindsided!

At Kalabal, Jonathan used his brain and figured out the clue meant the idol was under the nose of the bull pendant wedged in their welcome basket. Now he's got an idol, which he'll probably have to use at his first tribal considering we haven't seen any other strategizing by him yet. He better keep those glasses on, because he'll need another hidden immunity idol after this one gets used.

Tribal Council was entertaining with all the bitchy back-and-forth between Roxanne and Angie, whose cookie comment wasn't as dumb as Probst made it out to be. Malcolm's "little sister" comment about Angie was, however, pretty dumb, unless it's comparable to Kat and her cousin from last season.

In the end, two dangerous pairs remained in the game with Malcolm smack dab in the middle of both. I had high hopes for Roxy but she quickly fell into paranoid craziness way too soon. If there's any indication that God isn't invested in Survivor, her ousting from the Matsing tribe is all the proof I need.

Episode Grade: B
Episode MVP: Denise
Original Airdate: 09/26/2012