Survivor: Cagayan Strategy Blog Episodes 8/9 - Pretty Hurts

via truedorktimes

-Mike Ladue

My, how the Beauties have fallen. The inexplicably well-adjusted tribe of mactors and mactresses pre-swap is down to just 2 players left, Jefra and Jeremiah, who've both received votes since the merge.

The funny thing is that, more than in any other season I can recall, original tribal lines have blurred and faded. Jeremiah is in with Tasha and Spencer, while Jefra is tight with the former Brawns. Beauty may have faded, but their former members have adapted to different scenarios.

Morgan was not adaptive. Morgan seemed to live her life a certain way, and chose to play Survivor with those same principals. Say what you will about Kass, at least she's willing to throw caution/strategy/reason to the wind and embrace her own Survivor persona. Morgan liked to be catered to, and in a game where literally EVERYONE else is running and digging and clawing for hidden idols, she stuck out like a perfectly manicured sore thumb.

There should be a metric, comparing and contrasting the high and low qualities of one's Social, Physical and Strategic game and how that factors into whether someone should be voted out or not in each stage of the game, relative to the other contestants' individual scores. That's way too much programming for even someone as ridiculously obsessed as I to create, but I'd imagine Morgan's data would read something like:

-Strategic: LOW (let's not kid ourselves)
Social: LOW (not talking to certain people, not pulling her weight around camp)
Physical: MEDIUM (she did pretty well in the challenges)

She wasn't playing a terrible game, but she had one fatal flaw: SURVIVOR PRO TIP #11: Camp life matters. It may not matter to the editors or the audience anymore, but once upon a time Richard Hatch got away with being naked and smarmy because he provided fish for the tribe. If Morgan had at least made an effort to provide for her tribe mates (yes, even those in the opposing alliance) she might have been spared because of her low attributes elsewhere. Then again, J'Tia dumped all the rice and survived, so who knows with this cast.

Props to Tony and crew for dumping Morgan instead of someone like Tasha or Jeremiah, who have actual drive in the game. It's easy (and smart, according to my very first Pro Tip) to go after the nice, smart, likable people, but they chose to do the audience a solid. Maybe that'll backfire if Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah manage to wiggle their way forward, but at least we get a more exciting endgame.

Case in point: Dat Idol hunt doe. (Yes, that now counts as a professional transition.) Spencer should have destroyed his clue the moment he absorbed all the information, because things could have gone horribly awry if Woo or #ChaosKass or one of their cohorts found the idol. Thankfully for everyone at home (literally every single person I talk to about Survivor is rooting for Spencer), the chess nerd found it. Not the "special" Tyler Perry idol, mind you, but the regular, play-before-votes-are-read idol.

With an Idol in his pocket and strong allies Tasha and Jeremiah by his side, Spencer is in a great position. That position was only bettered when Tony went full-Hantz and lured Woo into booting LJ. An anti-MVP must be handed out to the editors, though, because they worked so hard to deliver LJ his comeuppance that all the drama of whether he'd go home was sucked from the episode. It was painfully obvious the outcome would be Tony betraying his buddy, it took some of my enjoyment out of the move.

Was it a good move? I'd vote no. LJ had his chance to flip but instead left Tasha #STOODUP. By spreading lies throughout his team he's burning bridges with Woo and Trish, who will find out the truth from LJ and Sarah before Tony's final reckoning. (Speaking of Sarah, she got quite the reaction when Tony told everyone at Tribal he's a contractor. #CopsRUs will rear it's hashtag again).

He's following in the footsteps of Coach, Russell and Phillip: Be wild and crazy and fun. You may not win (and none of those men have), but odds are you'll be brought back over calm, strategic players like Brendan Synnott, Brett Clouser and Mike Chiesel (Remember them? No, because they were overshadowed by the crazies, just as LJ will be forgotten and Tony remembered). Think about it like this: if you're throwing a party that you want to be memorable and exciting, do you want to invite the introverts or the extraverts? Survivor is like a weekly party, and extroverts are regular VIPs.

But here's the real crazy thing- Tony might win this whole game. I look to the "Previously On…" segment that aired before Morgan's boot episode. They re-aired Spencer's "Nobody's gonna vote for Kass" comment, and cut to Tony taking that information in. So here's my 100% unspoiled prediction for how the endgame goes down:

-Tony makes a deal with Spencer, someone he obviously admires
-Tony cuts Spencer at F4, a common spot for Fan Favorites to end up
-Tony sits in F3 with Trish and Kass
-Despite Tony's reckless behavior, Kass' questionable strategy and Trish's "eff y'all" attitude barely squeak him out a win

Or, you know, Kass wins. Or Spencer wins. At this point it's one of those three.

Up For Grabs:

-Fallen Comrades: Morgan is a very pretty girl. LJ is a very handsome guy. They don't need any ego stroking from me!

-Tony gave himself his own Stealth R Us nickname: The Opportunist. Brace yourself for a Tony v Phillip season, y'all.

Have you ever been #StoodUp by LJ? Do you think Tony can pull off a win? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @miketvladue!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 7 Strategy Blog - Chaos is a Lawyer

via pandawhale.com

by Mike Ladue

Before I say anything...

I'll stop. I don't want to stop, but I will. Because those are all the .gifs I felt like finding. Because frankly I don't even want to analyze this episode. I want to watch it again. Even though I recorded it, I'm also shelling out to buy the episode on iTunes tomorrow. It deserves money. It deserves Emmys. It deserves to be put in a time capsule along with the Lucy episode where she and Ethel ate all the chocolates. It's the Red Wedding of Survivor episodes.

In hindsight, it all makes sense. Replace Kass with Cochran and you basically have Survivor: South Pacific's merge episode. A lawyer gets bullied and takes the game into his/her own hands, alienating everyone else on his/her old tribe.

The beauty of this episode was the editing. The editors get the MVP award, because they turned a pretty basic plot point - alienated Kass jumps ship - into a tour-de-force episode.

Actually, no, the MVP award of the week has a rightful owner:

TRISH.

I've given Trish a lot of flack here before, but boy howdy did homegirl play that right. She sensed the cattiness between Sarah and Kass. Tony and LJ dismissed her, but she stuck to her guns and slyly drew Kass in. Brava, Trish. Bask in your glory.

Did Kass make the right move? Not really. Tasha wasn't "choosing" Sarah over Kass, she was putting Sarah on a pedestal. She appeased the swing vote. Classic Survivor.

Kass didn't want to appease. She didn't want to be "bullied", aka, not be in charge of the vote. Voting Trish or Jefra is a quick and easy way to establish solid numbers. Kass was thinking practically, while Sarah thought big. Sarah wanted LJ, Tony or Woo out. Eliminate a strong guy, a merge challenge threat. Two very different schools of thought. I touched on this a few weeks ago, and will repeat here: the Jefra vote was the theoretical right move. Jefra has an easier path to endgame now than Tony, LJ or Woo. Those guys will turn on each other out of fear and bravado. Little ol' Jefra is in for some smooth sailing.

The old Aparri obviously agreed, as they targeted Jefra in what may be the craziest Tribal Council ever,  up there with Parvati and Malcolm's dual idol moves. Tony pulled out his Idol. Aparri scrambled to vote "the other one". Tony used the idol on LJ. LJ used his Idol on TONY. The first vote - JEFRA. The second vote - SARAH. Tied til the final vote -- SARAH. Solana goes wild. Aparri goes pale.

Spencer is quick to tell Kass she's not winning this game, but she's not so sure. At this point, I'd have to side with Spencer. Kass, for some odd reason, wanted to instigate the watershed vote that alienated half the remaining players, who will make up half the Jury. She could have let Sarah do that. Appease Sarah, limiting her options, and convince Spencer and Tasha to cut the cop loose a few weeks down the line. No blood on Kass' hands.

Kass wanted blood. She mentioned blood in one confessional, physical violence in another and murder in yet another. How did this woman pass the psych testing? I made a Game of Thrones reference before, but #ChaosKass, who literally used the words "usurp Sarah's throne", would fit right in with the duplicitous Lannisters, Greyjoys and Freys of Westeros. Or Petyr "Chaos is a Ladder" Baelish. (Sorry, Game of Thrones comes back Sunday and I'm hella excited.)

She made another interesting claim tonight - because Trish, Jefra and co. also saw Sarah as a threat, Kass was impressed by their smarts and wanted to join forces with them. NO, Kass! Align with the dumb people! Keep Morgan, Jeremiah and Sarah in the game as long as you can! Dumb + loyal is the best type of ally available.

But Kass made her choice, and made Survivor history in the process.

Up For Grabs -

-Fallen Comrades: Sarah got what was coming to her. Neither she nor Kass had the social dexterity to kowtow to the other's demands. I liked her before tonight, but that inherent need to call the shots is a fatal flaw if I ever saw one.

-Winner pick: I still want to pick Spencer, but mostly because of how quick he was to turn down the easy, overused portmanteau merged tribe name. Salarrion > Salarri. He's astute, but now, once again, against the ropes.

-Apparently this "new idol" was dreamed up by Tyler Perry (yes, the Tyler Perry), who told Jeff Probst the game could use an idol playable after the votes were read. So basically, that super unfair idol from Panama/Cook Islands. I hope next season we get the Jeff Foxworthy Presents: Medallion of Power 2: The Desolation of Superfan's Respect for the Show.

-While introducing the Immunity Necklace, Probst said "This is what you seek now" instead of his perennial "this is what you covet." Has coveting suddenly become too taboo for the show?

-Trish seems like an anxiety-inducing pilates instructor. Is that how pilates works? I don't know a single thing about pilates.

-Someone called Woo "Wooie", so now I'm imagining an F/X sitcom starring Woo with a catchy theme song that goes something like "Wooie Wooie Wooie Wooieeeeee…"

-Woo wore watershoes and won. Hmm.

-Idea: Survivor: 29 - Cobs vs. Robbers. Cops is self-explanatory. Robbers can either be 1. Felons, which, eh. 2. Former contestants named Rob, which, probably or 3. Former contestants who have been "robbed" in the game, like Silas/Paschal/Willard/Jenny/Michelle/Aaron/Cirie/Katie.

-Can you name a more exciting Survivor episode? Did Kass make the right move? Hit up the comments or follow @miketvladue on Twitter to join the conversation!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 6 Strategy Blog: Tony Baloney

via Zap2It.com

by Mike Ladue

Back before Showtime's CIA drama Homeland became a colossal mess, Mandy Patinkin's character gave Claire Danes' character some blunt feedback: "You're the smartest and the dumbest f*cking person I've ever met." This is relevant because A: Showtime is part of CBS, which airs Survivor, and B: that's the same reaction I had to Tony's gameplay tonight.

His plot to create paranoia around Jeremiah by giving him the Solana idol clue was just crazy enough to work, as Jeremiah was just stupid enough not to catch on, and everyone else was just smart enough to anticipate more twists in the game. Tony may have won the battle in pinning a target, but with Jeremiah still in the game, he's losing the war of finishing his hits.

Another battle Tony won: the Immunity challenge, where he was integral in solving the final puzzle that spared Solana from another Tribal. Another war lost: Probably the whole game. By chanting "Final Five! Final Five!" he alienated Sarah and gave the disjointed Aparri castaways more reason to unify. And who's their biggest threat? Tony.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #10: Win with grace. Remember Gervase last season, hooting and hollering at the Tadhana tribe after an Immunity win? It directly lead to his niece, Marissa, getting the axe. Remember when Shii-Ann, the last Mogo Mogo member standing, won the bucket endurance challenge in All-Stars and exploded with joy? Alicia was quick to point out the Shii Devil still had to return back to camp with them, and only earned herself 3 days of safety. Excessive celebration isn't allowed in the NFL, and it shouldn't be allowed in Survivor.

The Solana tribe seems solid enough to stick together come the merge, though LJ and Jefra both expressed unease about Tony's bull-in-a-China-shop strategy. As long as he's taking all the hits making moves against others, the beauties have his back. That fair-weathered loyalty usually isn't the stuff of endgame alliances though. If he wants to survive to Final Five, Tony's gonna need that idol in his pocket -- and maybe a couple more.

Upon losing the IC, Aparri came to a fork in the road: Keep Alexis or keep Jeremiah. Both had strong ties to the Beauties that stayed on Solana. Jeremiah maybe had an idol clue and definitely had a history of breaking his word. Alexis had a mouth bigger than her brain.

They stuck with Jeremiah, which is an interesting choice. Had he played an idol, they would have flushed it out and still sent Alexis home. Should the merge come -- which it will next week-- he's a physical threat that will be targeted long before Alexis. In truth, had Alexis made the merge and Aparri gained an advantage, Alexis would have easily slid to final five and possibly to the FTC.

I worry, though, about the tact shown by Spencer, Tasha, Kass, Morgan and Sarah while picking a side. They clearly wanted to blindside Alexis, but also made it known that Jeremiah is persona non grata within the alliance. His word is garbage, he's shifty with his idol clue… If I were Jeremiah, I'd flip back to LJ and Jefra, who'd gladly take a strong guy for a few weeks to out-play Spencer and Sarah in challenges. Alexis might have remained loyal if the brains kept deluding her of her position within the alliance.

They were damned either way, and though Jeremiah is a serious wild card come the merge, at least he's not as unpredictable as Tony.

Up for Grabs

-Episode MVP: It's gotta be Tony, I guess. Though the moves he made will probably screw up his game in later episodes, the battles he fought tonight worked out. What's the line from Game of Thrones? "Winning three battles does not make you King?" Enjoy it while it lasts.

-Fallen Comrades #1: Nobody has quit the game quite like Lindsey. Osten was physically exhausted, Sue was, infamously, violated/humiliated/dehumanized/emotionally spent, Jenna was missing her ailing mother, Janu was over it, FairPlay was apparently in withdrawals, Kathy, Na'Onka, Purple Kelly and Dana couldn't handle the elements, and Colton, in the two times he played, couldn't handle anything. Lindsey did what very few reality show contestants do in the throes of the game: she realized her actions have real-world consequences, and it's more important to be a role model to her daughter than "that dreads girl who punched Trish right in her horse mouth." She chose brains over brawn, and I've gotta commend her for that. Trish can take her "Shame on You, Lindsie" banner and shove it. (Did it remind anyone else of this classic banner?)

-Fallen Comrades #2: Alexis seems like a sweetheart who just isn't very good at Survivor. For a fan to go out there and get blindsided must be devastating.

-Of course Spencer would enact the right strategy at the Reward Challenge - toss your buddha high up into the air, then attack the opponent's before your's lands. He's a smart kid!

-The fine folks at Vulture did a March Madness bracket of Greatest Reality TV Seasons, and Survivor: Borneo was in contention! Head over there to see how S1 fared, but also check out this list of their proposed 10 Best Strategic Moves in Survivor history. For those interested, here are the top 10 that came to my mind, in chronological order:

-The Tagi alliance votes out Gretchen, Borneo
-Rich steps down during the Final Immunity Challenge, Borneo
-"You Take Care of Her, I'll Take Care of You", All-Stars
-Chris goads Twila into getting angry at FTC, Vanuatu
-Cirie targets the Casaya pawns, Panama: Exile Island
-The Edgardo blindside, Fiji
-The Reichenbach Fall, Micronesia
-Russell muscling his Foa Foa foursome to the endgame, Samoa
-Parvati's HII double-down, Heroes vs. Villains
-Boston Rob's buddy rules, Redemption Island

-Survivor: Cagayan is shaping up to be one of the series' better installments, in large part due to the editors' generosity of screen time. Each of the 11 remaining contestants has some degree of depth and characterization, which is rare in an age where most seasons focus heavily on returning players or godlike Russell/Malcolm figures. With the merge approaching next week, I've decided to go contestant-by-contestant and grade their pre-game strategy thus far. This has no reflection on their chances at winning, just at how they've navigated the pre-merge portion of the game.

Spencer A-
Kass B+
Tasha B+
Sarah B
Morgan B
Jeremiah C
Jefra B-
LJ A-
Woo B-
Tony C+
Trish A+

Just kidding, Trish gets a C-.

Who would you have voted out, Alexis or Jeremiah? Do you think Tony can carry his Solana crew to the Final Five? Write your comments in the sand below or contact me on Twitter: @MikeTVLadue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 5 Strategy Blog: A Numbers Game?

via CBS.com

by Mike Ladue

Even casual fans have probably heard the phrase, "Survivor is a numbers game." But is it true?

Ultimately, yes. To win Survivor you need more votes than each of the other people sitting next to you at Final Tribal Council. But until that point, Survivor is most certainly not a numbers game. You can point to the introduction of the Hidden Immunity Idol in Guatemala as a major shift in the dynamic, where a person on the wrong end of a unanimous vote can live to fight another day. But really, Survivor has never been a numbers game due to the inherent presence of the plain-old Immunity challenge. Theoretically, a contestant could be immune from the vote in every single Tribal Council, both tribal and post-merge, and never have to worry about the numbers until FTC. (And let's be honest, if someone won every. single. challenge., how could you not reward him/her with your million-dollar vote?)

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #9: Survivor isn't a numbers game, it's a people's game. Had LJ been from any of the other 49 U.S. states, he'd probably have gone home -- or at least used his HII. But being from Masachussetts, he forged a connection with Trish, who did some talking to Tony, who all teamed up with Jefra to oust Cliff. I've never witnessed such a turn of events in the show's history; one's hometown saving someone from elimination. LJ gets the MVP of tonight's episode, simply by being born at the right place. (And also for playing it so damn cool when pressed on the HII. Unless the editors just showed random stone-faced shots at opportune moments, LJ should switch careers with Garrett and become a pro poker player.)

Cliff did everything right. He established strong bonds early on with the right people. Sure, the crazy lady on the tribe disliked him, but she disliked Lindsay WAY more. And Cliff was an asset in challenges! Did you see him holding that pole? The entire Aparri tribe could have latched onto him, like the orcs hacking on ents at the end of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and he still wouldn't have budged.

But Cliff was Cliff. He is a person, and some people don't like other people -- especially celebrity people who make a lot of money. I knew it'd be Cliff's downfall, though I expected -- for other contestant's sakes -- for it to come way later in the game, even at FTC, when numbers actually matter.

In Cliff's mind it was 4 vs. 3, the fourth being Tony. But Tony had been sowing seeds to dethrone Cliff since he spilled the beans to Sarah about the fake conversation. And Cliff's intimidation tactic definitely didn't work on Tony, who's got a lot to prove to the boys in blue back home. And Cliff wasn't about to get on his knees and beg (though I wish he had, though, because he'd probably still tower over poor Tony). It's reminiscent of Brenda's unwillingness to scramble to save herself in Nicaragua. Had these two swallowed their pride, they might have lasted a bit longer.

Tony made the right move tonight. It's obvious he was out of the Cliffhangers (™) alliance and would have been cut loose after at most two more losses, or sooner should Cliff and co. start seeing his physical strength as a post-merge threat. And, assuming Tony did make the merge, he'd probably join up with Sarah, who'd still be hell bent on voting out Cliff. This was the tidiest move for Tony, as it ties up loose ends.

Alternatively, had he blindsided LJ, he'd firmly establish a Brawn alliance, or at least project that image to the other tribe. Sarah, his Cops-R-Us ally, would probably be targeted. This move keeps her safe and moves the target to the Beauties on Aparri, who stand to gain more come the merge with LJ and Jefra in play.

To be fair, the Beauties are doing a good job targeting themselves. Alexis and Morgan's cat fight shows, again, numbers in Survivor are superficial. 3 Beauties =/= 3 Allies. The only reason the 3 Brains = 3 Allies is because they've played more game. As Cliff noted, the [NBA] series doesn't start until you lose your first game. Compared to Sarah and the Beauties, Kass/Tasha/Spencer are seasoned veterans. My first instinct was that Sarah would be the swing vote in a Brains v Beauty beatdown. Now, it looks like it'll be Morgan vs Alexis, with Sarah the one sitting pretty out of harm's way.

The Brains are getting a fantastic edit. I can see these three going all the way now, like the Jalapao 3 or Foa Foa 4 (OK, I guess Erinn outlasted Taj in Tocantins and Brett outlasted Jaison in Samoa, but they're still examples of underdogs nearly sweeping the competition). But none of them are giving off Winner vibes yet, which is great. The editors are keeping lots of characters in play, and it's making for a great season of TV.

Up For Grabs

-MVP: LJ, you stone cold fox, you.

-Winner Pick: I'll start doing rankings?
1. Spencer (Could it be that obvious? He's getting a glowing edit)
2. Tasha (Team Brains, but not enough to single her out as favorable)
3. Kass (Team Brains, but way too much negativity)
4. Sarah (Team CopsRUs, but starting to feel more Stephenie than Danni)
5. Morgan (If a Beauty does it, it'll be her)
6. Tony (We didn't even see his reaction to being separated from Sarah? Bad news)
7. LJ (Solid, not spectacular)
8. Woo (Too quiet)
9. Jeremiah (Too much foreshadowing of his downfall)
10. Jefra (Too little character)
11. Alexis (Too much negative perception)
12. Trish (That branch hit her in the head in Ep 1, and by God I'm sticking to that)
13. Lindsay (Probst on the beach next week = not a good sign)

-Sarah outing Morgan's secret about the rice vs. HII choice goes to show how hard it is to successfully maintain a lie out there.

-Hopefully the reunion will feature a twerk-off between Trish and Alexis.

-Jeff Probst doesn't know the sex of the Immunity Idol, so he checks the crotch. Oh Jeff.

-Are gongs traditional instruments in Filipino culture? Seemed out of place to me.

-Trish said she's no Mrs. Robinson. Right, Trish, that was Kail on Big Brother 8, and we all know how well she did (not very).

-Did Tony make the right choice? Is Lindsay gonna quit? Can the Brains go all the way? Cast your thoughts below or send a treemail tweet to: @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 3 Strategy Blog - Dot Dot Dot Hmmph

via tfanatic.com

By: Mike Ladue

Making it to the endgame of Survivor is extremely difficult without trust. To quote the idiot college kid from Good Will Hunting (one of my favorite films), "trust is life", which applies exponentially more on the island than in the real world. More so than fire, at least in the pre-merge rounds, trust is what keeps you alive.

We saw it with both David and Garrett last week. Both made moves that alienated them from the rest of their tribes, painting them as untrustworthy and sealing their fates. Sure, J'Tia destroyed all the rice, but everybody kinda expected that of her (see: Kass, Tasha and Garrett's chat in the water). Nobody knew where Garrett's head would be, thus they sent it rolling.

Trust was central to this week's episode, whether the main players in question (Jeremiah for the Beauty tribe and Sarah for the Brawns) realized it or not. In Jeremiah's case, he did. Literally everybody in the tribe believed Jeremiah was acting in his or her best interest.

That's an interesting position to be in. I'm surprised swing votes aren't targeted more often (the best, and only, example I can currently think of is Dolly in Vanuatu, which was so early in the game it hardly mattered). Of course had Jefra, Alexis or LJ spilled the beans they'd be voting for Jeremiah, they'd make the choice for him and he'd side with the outsiders, and vice-versa. The risk is too high.

So did Jeremiah make the right move? Let's look at his options. By voting out Brice, he solidifies himself in a four-person alliance with LJ/Alexis/Jefra, with Morgan once again the odd girl out. Should the Beauty tribe lose again, Morgan's an easy target -- low physical asset, low social prowess, low camp contribution. But smart players should always be thinking two moves ahead, and it's here that Jeremiah may have stumbled.

Jefra found out Jeremiah had been playing both sides, a fact that could seriously come back to bite him. Once Morgan's gone, the Beauties will be that much closer to a merge, where physical strength shifts from favorable to threatening. Jeremiah, then, becomes the outsider, the one who "played both sides" in a guilty by association scenario, the one everyone likes, and thus must be ousted.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #4: Find the most likable person and vote him/her off. This is probably the most controversial Survivor advice there is. But if everybody likes someone, regardless of any other factor, they're the biggest threat to your game. If they make it to the end, they win. 9 times out of 10 juries disregard strategy and vote emotionally. Fabio was a goofy, fun-loving guy whose late Immunity run earned him a win. So was JT. And Bob. Jeremiah could fit that criteria, if given the chance to make it that far. (This is controversial because going against an obvious favorite might draw ire from production. If you're going to oust the season's biggest hero, be prepared to assume the rule of the season's biggest villain).

Anyways, had Jeremiah stuck with Morgan and Brice and eliminated Alexis, he'd be in a majority alliance stacked against LJ and Jefra. As an audience, we know LJ found the Hidden Immunity Idol, and could use it as swift payback against Jeremiah for betraying the foursome. Had he not found the idol, moving forward with 2 stragglers is twice as dangerous as with one. Another loss would probably seal Jefra's fate. Whoever survived would itch to join Brains / Brawn and better their situation (a la Shambo). It's worth noting that misfit alliances tend to crumble (a la Timbira, Fang and nearly Casaya). Sticking with who he fits with may be the simplest, most natural choice.

Unfortunatlely, Jeremiah is pretty much damned either way. In this day and age, being a young, fit, likable male is the worst position for a Survivor contestant. After 20+ seasons of dominance, the tide has turned. This is the first time the first three contestants voted off were all male. Being the swing means you're in the middle, and unless you're Sandra Diaz-Twine, it's extremely difficult to hold that position to the endgame.

Brice, our narrator from last week, established an outcast bond with Morgan and a southern bond with Jeremiah. Put another way, he made 40% of all the right moves. Alexis may not have reached out and takes strategy with him, but he obviously hadn't tried connecting with her, either. Social butterfly he was not, as the Survivor greats are those who get on everybody's good side. Look at Kim Spradlin, Tom Westman, Aras Baskauskas, Yul Kwon, or J.T. Thomas. Instead, his Tribal confrontation with her was awkward, as if he knew he'd lost the war. I'll miss his candor at Tribal and sassiness in confessionals. But he failed to earn the trust of his tribe's majority, so there's no excuse to make for his early boot.

Trust comes into play at the Brawn tribe as well. Tony confided his cop identity in Sarah, who claimed to have "Cop-dar", from the makers of Gaydar. She took this small victory and ran with it, not realizing he packaged several small lies with his larger truth. His story about Cliff and Lindsay plotting against her? Total bull. Props to Tony for stirring the pot within an otherwise fully-functioning tribe, at least challenge-wise.

But for some reason, the show seems less inclined to give Tony his credit. Sure, he's gotten personalized hashtags like "#CopsRUs" (aka the worst alliance name ever. Seriously. If I ever make it on the show, I'm teaming up with other tall gangly men to form the Daddy Long Leg Brigade, Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Natalie be damned). The editing, specifically the music cues, paint a different picture.

Maybe it's just me, but Sarah comes off as way more likable than Tony. Tony gets Russell-like confessionals, without the Russell-like music cues, promos, or production favor. He's more reminiscent of Gabon's Ace than Samoa's Russell. He's downright dunce-like. Then again, Sarah comes off as Palau's Stephenie: strong, likable (lovable?) woman who gets dealt a bad hand.

I see the Tony/Sarah story going one of three ways:

1. Sarah catches Tony in his lies and blindsides him (possibly as early as next week, as Sarah targets a "him" to Woo. Is she naive enough to go after Cliff directly to his ally?)

2. Tony blindsides Sarah, burning that bridge come jury time (a la Chris and Julie in Vanuatu)

or, least likely,

3. Sarah and Tony reach the finals together.

Last week I narrowed the winner pick down between Sarah and Kass. Of the two, Sarah is the one I'd feel comfortable still backing, and this pick to win a Final Tribal over Tony. Kass seemed out of touch with Tasha, the new HBIC of the Brains tribe. I guess it all comes down to who Tasha feels she can trust more deeply.

Random Thoughts:

-MVP: LJ, for finding the HII and keeping his alliance intact through Tribal.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, with Tasha surpassing Kass for second place. Spencer still seems like a future All-Star, not a current season winner.

-Fallen Comrades: Brice just didn't click. Socially, he seemed too aggressive to gel with the laid-back pretty boys and girls. It's a fine line between missing out and over-strategization, and Brice erred too far towards the latter. I'm sure he'll be hilarious on Twitter!

-The vertical maze was DOPE, and designed by a dream-teamer, apparently.

-Props to the Brains for practicing the challenge. Did it help? Not really, as they made up time on the puzzle. But they're definitely using their knowledge of the game's ins and outs to their advantage.

-Splitting votes is always so risky, and we've seen it go wrong so many other times, I partly was disappointed for it to work so well against Brice tonight. Alexis displayed a firm grasp of the game's rules, though. You go girl!

-I made a few mentions to music cues this week, so it's worth mentioning the departure of Russ Landau, Survivor's resident composer since the very first season. From what I've gathered, production felt they'd amassed enough music over the past 27 cycles to fill the silences. Obviously that didn't work as planned, since we were treated to unoriginal music during the Brains tribe's water-tossing segment. Landau's loss is immeasurable to the Survivor brand and one I'm already mourning greatly.

-Did Jeremiah make the right move? Are you down with Cops-R-Us? Share your opinions in the comments, or with me personally on Twitter: @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 1&2 Recap - How Do You Solve A Problem Like J'Tia?

via survivorfandom.com

By: Mike Ladue

Survivor players come in all shapes in sizes, and rarely can you predict on Day 1 who will be left standing on Day 39. Not only is there a social game to be played, there’s a television show going on, with twists and turns designed to keep audiences tuned in and contestants doing stupid things.

That being said, if you said J’Tia would survive through those TWO Tribal Councils, on a tribe of people whose collective IQ is 130, I’d laugh in your face. J’Tia was responsible for the awful shelter. J’Tia was the reason the tribes lost not one but TWO Immunity challenges. J’Tia is the reason Luzon is going riceless for the foreseeable future.

Dividing the three tribes into Brain / Brawn / Beauty was an inspired decision by production. Whenever Survivor can “settle a question” like men vs. women, fan vs. favorite, hero vs. villain, or white vs. black vs. asian vs. Hispanic, the results are usually Survivor gold. (Or at least they are the first time; for every Amazon and Micronesia, there’s a One World and Caramoan.)

The Brawn tribe is aggressive, both in challenges and in camp. Sarah literally interrogates Tony, a fellow police officer posing as a construction worker, while Lindsay (a Flicka Flame / Courtney Marit hybrid) and Trish (Sherri 2.0?) get in a fight over… what, exactly? Trish just antagonizes Lindsay? Between that and the intro shot/accompanying sound effect of Trish getting whacked by a branch, Trish is an early contender for a Final Tribal zero-vote getter.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #1: Be yourself. Tony lying about his profession will do him no favors, mostly because he’s going to get so unbelievably bored over 39 days (or however long he survives, probably far fewer) that the truth will force its way out. Cliff was honest about his past and subsequently earned a cult-like following, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Boston Rob. Tony got off on the wrong foot with Sarah, and after injuring his other in the challenge, he’ll soon be left without a leg to stand on. (Yay for pedal/crural puns!)

The Beauty tribe is full of solipsistic, silicon-stuffed, surprisingly strategic … Survivors. Brice has emerged as our narrator, eloquently sizing up his fellow contestants with flair. After pouncing on Morgan (does she resemble a Kardashian to anyone else?), the only other outcast in the tribe, he set his sights on Jeremiah, noting, “country folk have to stick together.” In fact, three of our most beautimous contestants -- Brice, Jeremiah and Jefra – hail from Southern states. This is CBS subliminally pandering to their large Southern audience by calling them the most attractive in the country! You can’t fool me, Moonves!

It’s also the only tribe where the hidden immunity idol went unfound. Apparently this season will feature four idols: one at each original camp and one, available post-merge, which can be used after the votes are read like the Deitz/Kwon idols of yore. Yes, there are too many idols. No, I don’t need to explain why. But I will explain…

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #2: Idol > Food. As hazardous as Hidden Immunity Idols are to the game’s theory, never, ever pass up the opportunity to get your hands on one. From a game standpoint, it gives you an extra buffer of protection – especially if you can find it before your tribemates arrive, as Garrett did. From a production standpoint, having an idol forces you into the Survivor narrative. Will you play it? Will you give it up? Will you be blindsided? It may put a target on your back, but it’ll plant you deeper in the audience’s consciousness, which only increased your chances at Fan Favorite and All-Stars perks.

Garrett chose the idol over food. He found said idol. He deflected idol panic onto David. He beasted in those challenges. And yet, ironically, he left the game without an idol to his name, kicked from a tribe with 0 bags of rice.

What went wrong?

Just about everything. David made the first mistake in alienating Garrett at the (Tocantins-reminiscent) insta-faux-vote. While Sarah’s vote for Trish and LJ’s vote for Morgan made common sense, David expelled Garrett, the physically fit pro poker player, leaving him on a tribe with three not particularly athletic young women and a twentysomething chess wizard.

David voted as such because he was focused on the last 2/3 of the game, at which point physical players become threats. For the life of me, I can’t process how this is a good move for David. To get to those last 2/3 of the game, you must make it through the opening 1/3. He weakens his tribe by eliminating a tall, buff guy, who is an asset in winning physical challenges, which your tribe will face early and often. 

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #3: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Survivor is a test of your endurance, not just of the elements, or of each other, but of yourself. David has nobody to blame for his dumb move alienating Garrett than himself. Garrett expressed extreme boredom that led to over-strategization and paranoia (the Colton effect). Tasha lashed out when stifled, rather than biding her time. J’Tia nearly pushed Kass past the breaking point when she dumped all the rice in the fire. Even Spencer (whom reminds me of myself, and I’m pissed his inclusion drastically limits the chances I’ll ever get on) was quick to call out his ally Garrett’s flakiness at Tribal. Kass has proven to be the most calm, cool and collected of the bunch, not even letting J’Tia’s rash decisions sway her inner compass.

Whether that compass is aligned correctly is another story. Kass avenged fallen friend David and blindsided Garrett, leaving her on a tribe with tight allies Tasha and J’Tia and Spencer, adrift. This isn’t a great position for her, given J’Tia’s observable challenge/camp/social prowess.

Would the alternative have been better? Well, yes, a bit. A strong Garrett/Spencer/Kass alliance had Tasha as a buffer should Luzon lose yet another Immunity challenge. If the three managed to make the latter two-thirds of the game, Garrett would receive the target David had predicted. If they managed to make the finals, could you imagine Garrett pleading his case to a jury? He could barely keep his thoughts straight at a regular Tribal. She’d destroy him in jury votes.

But J’Tia survives, against all odds. She’s the kind of person who, in a regular, 8 vs. 8 season, probably would have been voted out. She’s your average Survivor pawn, and a group of average players would strike her down early for a minimal advantage. On a tribe of chess champions targeting bishops, knights, and castles, she floats by. If that carries her to the last 2/3, those Beautys/Brawnys better watch out. When the pawn finally inches all the way across the board, it can become as powerful as a Queen.

Random Thoughts:

-Welcome, new readers! I haven't covered Survivor since Philippines but am excited to follow this cast through what seems to be a wild season. I use "I" a lot, which is totally not kosher for television criticism, but Survivor is so much more than TV. I may not offer professionalism, but I've got pretensions, obscure references to past seasons (which I'll try to limit within parentheses, like these!) and "Pro-tips", or things I'd advise future contestants to do, having spent the last 14ish years of my life watching this silliness.

-I don't like explaining challenges. Jeff spends enough time doing that in the episode. I'll talk about strategy, usually latching onto an episode's integral character and judging his/her decisions, based on theoretical alternative options and past outcomes. 

-Grading these episodes feels wrong for some reason, so I'm going to stop. 

-Overall, I'm psyched for season 28. So many fresh characters! So many questionable choices! 

-Team #TrueDetectiveS2 (Sarah and Tony) > Team Southern Belles > Team WooCliff

-Has a three-tribe breakdown ever been successful? It's still early, I guess, but Saboga in All-Stars and Matsing in Philippines both royally sucked pre-merge a la Luzon.

-Speaking of Luzon, I don't know the other tribe names yet and refuse to look them up. I think one was Solana, which is too close to One World's Salani tribe for me to sleep soundly tonight. 

-Fallen Comrades: David needed to get out of his head and spend some time on the island with his fellow castaways. And THAT's why you don't wear a blazer on Survivor! Garrett studied past episodes for hundreds of hours, a level of dedication I must commend. But dude, didn't you see my Pro Tips??

-Episode(s) MVP: Sarah, for her quick read of Tony and challenge dominance. 

-Winner Pick: Not Trish.

OK, fine. I’m torn between Kass and Sarah. Kass reminds me of Denise Stapley, who won Philippines despite (or because of) attending every tribal council. Kass is analytical yet willing to make big moves. We saw David's blindside through her eyes. Garrett's blindside could have been framed as a massive blunder for Kass, but we got some rationalization. This couldn't have been a game-ending move, at least not yet. Sarah got her “I should be on [the Brains] tribe!” quote CC’d, a sign she’s a triple-threat. I’ll leave them at neck and neck until next week.

-As always, hit up the comments with your thoughts, theories and strategic insight. For more TV musings, follow me on Twitter at @miketvladue. 

32 Best American Idol Performances of All Time (Including Candice Glover's "Lovesong")

ML- Since the atrocious season 9 I've tried to kick my Idol addiction, to no avail. This week, AI 12 contestant Candice Glover performed The Cure's "Lovesong" and reminded me why staying up-to-date with the reality showcase can be oh so rewarding. Randy proclaims it as one of the best performances of all time, and I agree. 

I scoured YouTube to find the other "best performances of all time" and drafted a list of 32. Someone, somewhere should make a bracket of these -- we're still processing the results from our March Madness bracket competition! For now, enjoy this unranked video playlist of the top Idol vocals from the past 12 years.

Note: Contestants were limited to just one performance in the list, to prevent every single Kris Allen / Kelly Clarkson number from sneaking in. I also tried fitting each winner in there, even though Lee DeWyze's spot should have gone to Andrew Garcia's "Straight Up" cover. 

1. Candice Glover, "Lovesong" (Season 12)

2. Carrie Underwood, "Alone" (Season 4)

3. Kris Allen, "Heartless" (Season 8)

4. Jennifer Hudson, "Circle of Life" (Season 3)

5. David Cook, "Billie Jean" (Season 7)

6. Haley Reinhart, "Bennie and the Jets" (Season 10)

7. Elliott Yamin, "A Song For You" (Season 5)

8. Jordin Sparks, "I Who Have Nothing" (Season 6)

9. Joshua Ledet, "This Is A Man's World" (Season 11)

10. Allison Iraheta, "Cry Baby" (Season 8)

11. Clay Aiken, "Bridge Over Troubled Water" (Season 2)

12. Crystal Bowersox, "Me and Bobby McGee" (Season 9)

13. Bo Bice, "In a Dream" (Season 4)

14. Melinda Doolittle, "My Funny Valentine"(Season 6)

15. Adam Lambert, "Mad World" (Season 8)

16. Fantasia Barrino, "Summertime" (Season 3)

17. David Archuleta, "Imagine" (Season 7)

18. Tamyra Gray, "A House Is Not A Home" (Season 1)

19. Taylor Hicks, "Trouble" (Season 5)

20. Carly Smithson, "Here You Come Again" (Season 7)

21. Ruben Studdard, "Superstar" (Season 2)

22. Jessica Sanchez, "And I Am Telling You" (Season 11)

23. Jason Castro, "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" (Season 7)

24. Katharine McPhee, "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" (Season 5)

25. Scotty McCreery, "Gone" (Season 10)

26. Kimberly Locke & Frenchie Davis, "Band of Gold" (Season 2)

27. Chris Daughtry, "Renegade" (Season 5)

28. Pia Toscano, "All By Myself" (Season 10)

29. Lee DeWyze, "The Boxer" (Season 9)

30. Phillip Phillips, "U Got It Bad" (Season 11)

31. Blake Lewis, "You Give Love a Bad Name" (Season 6)

32. Kelly Clarkson, "Natural Woman" (Season 1)

Who did I miss? Or did I pick the wrong song for somebody? Let me know in the comments, and be sure to watch American Idol Wednesdays/Thursdays on FOX to catch some of the show's best talent in years.

TV Review: Survivor: Caramoan 26x01: "Fans" vs. "Favorites"

ML- I understand Survivor revisiting one of its strongest twists, the "Fans vs. Favorites" conceit that back in 2008 led to arguably the best season the show ever had. What I don't understand is how production managed to cast so few players that fit into either one of those classifications.

Let's look at the "Favorites" first. Last FvF we were treated to actual fan favorites Cirie, Ozzy, Yau-Man & James, love-to-hate villains Fairplay, Ami & Penner, as well as eye-candy in the form of Parvati, Amanda and Eliza. For the most part these were people who just missed out on the million dollars -- Ozzy and Amanda both made Final Tribal Council, with Yau-Man and Fairplay one spot away and Cirie & Eliza two spots away.

This time only one contestant made the FTC in his previous appearance: Phillip Sheppard of Redemption Island. Malcolm was one spot away and Erik three, but for the most part these are low-ranking contestants in all metrics, specifically game placement.

Put another way: The average placement of the original 10 Favorites was 4.5. With the addition of Francesca, this season had an average of 7.4, and without her still only a 6.22.

Judging by how the episode went down, its clear CBS took great care in crafting this cast. The favorites are a mess of a tribe, chock-filled with the anxious (Cochran, Erik), the proud (Francesca, Brenda) and the borderline-psychotic (Phillip, Brandon, Corinne). Malcolm, Andrea and Dawn seem like the most well-adjusted, adept Survivor players, and I think our winner may come from that triad.

The best part of the overlong 90-minute premiere was the pre-tribal council scramble. The target flipped from Phillip to Fran to Andrea within minutes, allowing us to see this least-composed tribe ever deal with the first (and probably easiest) vote of the season.

Phillip actually impressed me off the bat, implementing the things he learned and witnesses first-hand from Boston Rob back in Nicaragua into a code from which to base his gameplay on. The BR Code, as he called it, went as follows:

Rule 1: Make a big alliance
Rule 2: Make an alliance within your alliance
Rule 3: Turn on alliance members before they have the chance to turn on you

This has absolutely worked for Rob in the past. In All-Stars, Rob and Amber were the core of their Chapera alliance and sacrificed Alicia, Big Tom, Rupert and Jenna all in their pursuit for the final 2. In Redemption Island, Rob maintained his strong alliance as long as possible and carried the two weakest competitors to the finale, where he won soundly.

That being said, Phillip is no Rob. He doesn't have the charm or ingenuity Rob displayed in all four of his seasons. When he proposed a four-person alliance of himself, Andrea, Corinne and Malcolm, I thought it was a smart move. When he branched out to Cochran, Dawn and Erik, however, it was clear Phillip was in way over his head. Erik didn't even believe him, and Erik still carries the heavy crown awarded to "dumbest player ever". We got a lot of Phillip this week, but it was to set up his epic rematch with Francesca and establish the flaw in his character from the onset.

Poor Francesca. I hope that rock went down smooth. Her fatal flaw was playing too hard from the onset, as well as being in the same tribe as Phillip. Put yourself in, say, Cochran's shoes: Do you side with the crazy Specialist who isn't going to garner many jury votes and will always be a bigger target than you, or the intellectual, well-spoken Francesca stirring up trouble? I hope Francesca holds no grudges against the tribemates who voted against her, because I think they were just making the right move at the right time. Easier said than done, though.

So does that make Francesca the worst player of all-time, seeing as she was voted of 1st twice now? If you're in the camp that declares Sandra the best player for winning twice, yes, it fits your definition. I don't think she's necessarily the worst; at least she went down swinging both times, unlike quitters such as Purple Kelly, Janu, Osten, Kathy and Na'Onka. She also made it to Day 3 twice, unlike Wanda and Jonathan of Palau and Kourtney, who was medivacced during the first challenge in One World. Let's not kid ourselves: Francesca is not a great player, and I doubt she was nor will she ever be anyone's "favorite." But she's not the worst, despite what statistics may say.

Onto the "Fans"... judging by the cast biographies and pre-show interviews I've read, few of these people seem to be actual superfans of Survivor. I find it hard to believe female fans of the show look like the four hot blondes or the buff tools bouncing around the island. Matt, maybe. Michael? Ok, sure. Reynold? No way.

Fan or not, Reynold already carved himself into a nice alliance of four along with "not the prettiest" Allie and the "hottest" of the island Eddie and Hope. These cool kids splash in the water and flirt with their hormones all a-flutter, not giving a rat's ass about the majority of the camp glaring at them from the beach.

This is a huge flashback to, again, FvF 1, where Parvati/Amanda/James/Ozzy shacked up and Penner/Ami/Eliza/Yau-Man tried turning the tide against them. Here, Sherri and Julia have both been shown ready to take down the PYTs, with Michael in the middle as a possible Fairplay, positioned to join whichever side benefits him and his buddy Matt. With so much complexity going to the fans this early, might one of them rise up and outlast a favorite?

I doubt it. The fan we got the most footage of was Shamar, whose larger-than-life personality came off as pretty negative, even though he did help get the fire going. Mostly, he sat back while work was getting done and bickered over fire vs. shelter. News flash, Shamar: On Survivor you need fire AND shelter AND water AND an alliance. Better work on that last one or else you won't be around to enjoy any of the other three.

While not as confident as last year with Denise, I think I'm ready to make a winner pick for Caramoan: Dawn Meehan. While she didn't get a lot of visibility on her own, she received a pretty glowing review from Cochran, who is one of the best narrators on the Favorites tribe, next to Malcolm. Cochran noted how she was willing to work with him despite their South Pacific history and that her newly-harnessed cut-throat personality represented "A New Dawn." That right there, to me, is the stuff winners are made of on this show.

Can the Favorites get their mojo back and win against the Fans? Don't forget, Favorites lost the first Immunity back in Micronesia but went on to dominate post-swap. With so many unpredictable "favorites" and unseasoned "fans", this is sure to go down as one of the messiest seasons in Survivor history. As fans of reality TV know, messy = gold.

Episode Grade: B-
WINNER PICK: Dawn Meehan
Original Airdate: 02/13/13

Want to chat with me about Survivor? Speak up in the comments or follow me on Twitter @miketvladue for live-tweets from this show and thoughts on most everything else pop-culture. Thanks for reading!

TV Catch-Up: Survivor Philippines: Fate of the Final Four

image courtesy of survivoroz

ML- We have our final four! I think this is one of the best final fours in recent memory. It's also the final four I predicted back at the merge! Here's a note: If they focus on a final four/three pact positively, they most likely make it to the end (stretching back to Tagi, Colby/Tina/Keith, Boran, V/Neleh/Kathy/Pappy/Sean, Chuay Ghan, Romber, Aitu, Todd/Amanda, Black Widow Brigade, JT/Stephen, Foa Foa Foursome, Boston Rob + The Rob Zombies, Upolu, Kim/Chelsea). Alliances shown negatively can generally be deciphered by their music cues- think about the Four Horsemen of FIji or even Yau/Penner/Ami/Eliza in Micronesia. Flourishing music - endgame, sporadic frumpy tones = bumbling idiots filling up the jury. Anyway, I'd say everyone has a decent shot of swaying enough jurors with the right Final Tribal speech. But what should each person say to make his/her case?

The jury so far consists of RC, Jeff Kent, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter and now Abi-Maria. That's 4 former Tandang members and 3 former Kalabal, with at least one more to join. According to Dalton Ross at Entertainment Weekly, there's only one more person joining the jury and a Final 3. That's surprising, as only two seasons out of the past 24 have done that: Australia, which added 3 extra days, and China, for reasons I don't remember. That being said, it's not unprecedented.

One school of thought is that there was too much story to tell that they decided to split things up differently in editing. Or, perhaps something happens at Final 4 that takes a bit of time. It would make sense for there to be a tie vote, seeing as how its 2 Tandang vs. 2 Matsing left, and a fire-making challenge would be an epic precursor to the finale. Please, Survivor gods, let Skupin be subjected to a fire-making challenge AND WIN. That would be such poetic justice, the man finally conquering fire that took him out of the game over 10 years ago.

As a metric for determining who has the best chances, I'll rank the likelihood of each juror voting for each contestant if he/she makes it to the final 3. If its the person a juror is most likely to vote for, that person gets a 4, while least likely gets a 1. Make sense? Let's start with Skupin.

image courtesy of survivor fever.net

Mike Skupin is a returning player, and all we've seen this season is animosity towards returning players. On his tribe, he's been regarded most positively by RC, the first juror. He's also gotten positivity from Lisa and Penner, but the favor with the latter man seems to have turned. Contestants in the opposing Tandang faction of Abi-Maria, Artis and Pete have all spoke ill of him, especially Abi last night calling him an idiot and a moron. Survivor doesn't like to show us winners who are stupid, unless it's funny like Fabio. Fabio even got confessionals where he alluded to his goofiness being a ploy to lay low in the game. Skupin is getting a redemption story, but one that seems more personally satisfying than indicative of Survivor glory.

RC: 4 (Loves Skupin)
Jeff Kent: 1 (Hates returning players)
Artis: 1 (Hates Skupin, according to post-show interviews)
Pete: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 2 (Betrayed by Skupin, may respect his game)
Carter: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria: 2 (Called him and idiot and a moron)
Juror Tally: 12

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-Despite the target on returning players, he made it to the Final 3.
-Survival experience benefitted Tandang tribe, who never went to Tribal pre-merge
-Underdog in his alliance, made moves to better his position

Things he should avoid:
-Holier-than-thou attitude. Don't call Pete, Abi or Artis "bad people", even though they were.
-The reward challenge where he made the rice trade. While arguably a good move, it pissed off all of his tribe mates.
-"Need". Skupin has a big family but is well-off.

Prediction: He'll only win if he: stays humble, pledges allegiance to Tandang yellow, owns his moves as self-preservation and is sitting next to both Malcolm and Denise. He needs Lisa on the jury to help garner favor for him, which probably isn't a likely outcome. With so much contempt for him and his gameplay, I don't think he'll be able to persuade any haters.

image courtesy of survivor dean

Malcolm is charismatic, athletic and a fan of the show. Mike and Lisa's decision to keep Denise in an attempt to beat Malcolm was terribly risky. On one hand, she definitely has a better shot of defeating Malcolm. But that also guarantees at least one of the original Matsing members is in the Final 3, if not both of them. Wouldn't you rather take your chances up against Malcolm knowing you'd have a better shot at Final 3 vs. Abi? Everyone is worried about Malcolm, as they should be. His edit has been very positive but not stellar. He comes off as cocky, something very few winners are shown as -- mainly the villainous ones like Hatch and Heidik, and Malcolm is no villain. His decision to turn on Denise could come back to bite him if word gets back to her that he was wishy-washy.

RC: 2 (Would more likely vote Skupin or Lisa, her Tandang brethren)
Kent: 3 (Physical threat, but he spent more time with Denise)
Artis: 4 (Not voting for Skupin, probably respects physicality)
Pete: 4 (More bitter towards Skupin/Lisa, probably respects physicality)
Penner: 1 (Did you see him flip off Malcolm at TC?)
Carter: 4 (Betrayed by Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria:4 (I'd like to put definite, but nobody knows where Abi's head will be at. Her voting Skupin doesn't make sense and she hates Denise. It's either Lisa or Malcolm)
Juror Tally: 22

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-So far, he's won the most immunities. The past 4 winners have all been the person to go into Final Tribal with the most Immunity Challenges under their belt (overall, the person in the FTC who won the most ICs has won the game 12 times and lost 11. In Panama, Aras and Danielle each had 1 IC win). Skupin/Denise could still possibly tie him. (Another fun fact- the final IC winner has only won the game 10/24 times, 4 of those being the last 4 winners Kim, Sophie, Rob and Fabio).
-Super underdog. He was on a sinking ship at Matsing, made it to Tandang and proved himself physically adept.
-Found HII and never had to play it
-Work his charm

Prediction: If he makes the Final Tribal Council he's a force to be reckoned with. However, he's not getting the hero edit most young male winners get. If he wins, he's being shown more like Aras, which was an anomaly because of bigger characters Cirie and Terry. My guess is Lisa's plan to keep Denise to defeat Malcolm will pay off and he'll head to the jury. If I'm wrong, he wins it all.

image courtesy of thegazette.com

Denise is the biggest underdog in the game. She's been to every Tribal Council of the season, yet she hasn't been edited as a cancer bringing the team down. Instead, her regard has been almost unanimously positive, except from Abi-Maria, the villain. It's unfortunate that her edit has been centered around just Abi bashing the past few weeks, as a well-rounded winner needs more oomph. Then again, Coach had all the oomph and Sophie pulled out the win.

RC: 1 (I don't remember any interaction between the two, she'd vote Mike/Malcolm first)
Kent: 4 (Only member of the Final Four he aligned with & spoke highly of)
Artis: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Pete: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Carter: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Abi-Maria: 1 (Rivalry with Denise)
Juror Tally: 18

What she needs to stress in her final speech:
-Went to EVERY TRIBAL COUNCIL and emerged unscathed.
-Loves to bring out Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. She's done all 3 very well
-Very articulate and concise when it comes to feelings, can probably use that to sway folks
-Loyalty
-Need of the $$

I think Denise has a great shot at winning, even against Malcolm. She is well-spoken and needs to emphasize her story. Play on the bitterness of the Tandang and appeal to the Kalabaw. Her edit, like Malcolm's, leaves me with some concern. They're both being overshadowed by someone, who doesn't deserve the win but may just eek it out.

image courtesy of haveuheard.net

Lisa. She's gotten so much focus in this game. Is she merely a great narrator on a personal journey, or can this woman, who has proclaimed over and over again how bad she is at this game, really win?

RC: 3 (Close with Skupin/Lisa)
Kent: 2 (She didn't flip on him but they weren't allies)
Artis: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Pete: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Penner: 4 (Shown connecting with her the most. I think he will win this or lose this for her, like Erik did to Natalie in Samoa)
Carter: 2 (Still betrayed)
Abi-Maria: 3 (Always placated by Lisa)
Juror Tally: 18

She's tied with Denise, making the ranking:
Malcolm 22
Denise/Lisa 18
Skupin 12

Which seems about right. Malcolm should win, but his edit isn't a runaway so I don't think he will. Skupin won't win, and we know that because everyone keeps saying that. So Denise and Lisa are evenly matched. Lisa has the editors on her side. She's been shown coming around to the game, especially with the help of her brother, Justice, who needs to be on my dream Family season (the cast of which I'll post below, for those interested).

As bitter as people are, I think Lisa will sway them. She did a great job of mentioning Tandang's winning streak, pleasing Pete and Artis. Previously, I thought she'd get 4th place with a Holly Hoffman redemption edit, but this seems bigger than that.

My biggest problem is that she hasn't made any moves. She's talked a big game but done nothing. She never had to vote until the merge. It was Michael who jumped at the opportunity to drop Artis, not her. She's screwed up with Malcolm's idol and shouldn't have told Penner he was going. Her post-Justice plan to axe Malcolm also didn't pan out over the course of two weeks. She should be getting torn apart by the jury, but the edit is treating her as if simply trying is good enough in Survivor. Its not.

My gut tells me Denise will win. The editing points to Lisa. The stats at this point say Malcolm has the best chance, but it's not a runaway and he needs that Immunity. I don't know about you, but I'm excited to see how this all shakes out. Who do you think will score the most jury votes and enter the Survivor winner's circle? Who will win Fan Favorite? My guess -- Malcolm. And how many people will get asked 0 questions at the finale? I'm thinking Roxy, Katie, Artis and Carter are all getting the shaft.

Leave some love below! Follow me on Twitter @miketvladue where I'll be live-tweeting the finale this Sunday at 8:00 EST! Check back next week, where I'll probably be trying to rationalize a Mike Skupin win. I'll also give an updated ranking of the winners and probably make a bunch of references to seasons you don't remember. It'll be a blast! Thanks for reading, happy finale!!

12/12/12 Episode grade: B+
Episode MVP: Malcolm

~Survivor: Family Edition Dream Cast~
1. Greg Buis' Sister, who left the creepy video message
2. Colby's Mom Gaye, who slept in the Aztek with him
3. Big Tom's son Bucky Bo, the craziest kid around
4. Kathy's son Patrick, who was just so apathetic about everything Survivor
5. Brian's stripper wife, because why not
6. Fairplay's friend Thunder D, because "she died, dude"
7. Rupert's wife Laura, because she got slobbery kisses all over her
8. Jenn's sister, because it would mean something
9. Shane's son Boston Powers, because he's probably old enough
10. Cirie's husband Honey Bunny, because she wouldn't marry a dud, right?
11. Terry's wife, because she seemed like a gamebot
12. Russell's wife Melanie, because who could marry him?
13. Amanda's sister, because she made all the bird calls
14. Matty's girlfriend, because she got proposed to
15. Taj's husband Eddie George, because famous
16. Colby's brother Reid, because COME ON, REID!!!
17. Fabio's mom, because Dayum
18. Kat's cousin Robby, because he was super weird
19. Lisa's brother Justice, because he rocked
20. Coach's assistant Coach, because WTF