TV Catch-Up: Survivor Philippines: Fate of the Final Four

image courtesy of survivoroz

ML- We have our final four! I think this is one of the best final fours in recent memory. It's also the final four I predicted back at the merge! Here's a note: If they focus on a final four/three pact positively, they most likely make it to the end (stretching back to Tagi, Colby/Tina/Keith, Boran, V/Neleh/Kathy/Pappy/Sean, Chuay Ghan, Romber, Aitu, Todd/Amanda, Black Widow Brigade, JT/Stephen, Foa Foa Foursome, Boston Rob + The Rob Zombies, Upolu, Kim/Chelsea). Alliances shown negatively can generally be deciphered by their music cues- think about the Four Horsemen of FIji or even Yau/Penner/Ami/Eliza in Micronesia. Flourishing music - endgame, sporadic frumpy tones = bumbling idiots filling up the jury. Anyway, I'd say everyone has a decent shot of swaying enough jurors with the right Final Tribal speech. But what should each person say to make his/her case?

The jury so far consists of RC, Jeff Kent, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter and now Abi-Maria. That's 4 former Tandang members and 3 former Kalabal, with at least one more to join. According to Dalton Ross at Entertainment Weekly, there's only one more person joining the jury and a Final 3. That's surprising, as only two seasons out of the past 24 have done that: Australia, which added 3 extra days, and China, for reasons I don't remember. That being said, it's not unprecedented.

One school of thought is that there was too much story to tell that they decided to split things up differently in editing. Or, perhaps something happens at Final 4 that takes a bit of time. It would make sense for there to be a tie vote, seeing as how its 2 Tandang vs. 2 Matsing left, and a fire-making challenge would be an epic precursor to the finale. Please, Survivor gods, let Skupin be subjected to a fire-making challenge AND WIN. That would be such poetic justice, the man finally conquering fire that took him out of the game over 10 years ago.

As a metric for determining who has the best chances, I'll rank the likelihood of each juror voting for each contestant if he/she makes it to the final 3. If its the person a juror is most likely to vote for, that person gets a 4, while least likely gets a 1. Make sense? Let's start with Skupin.

image courtesy of survivor fever.net

Mike Skupin is a returning player, and all we've seen this season is animosity towards returning players. On his tribe, he's been regarded most positively by RC, the first juror. He's also gotten positivity from Lisa and Penner, but the favor with the latter man seems to have turned. Contestants in the opposing Tandang faction of Abi-Maria, Artis and Pete have all spoke ill of him, especially Abi last night calling him an idiot and a moron. Survivor doesn't like to show us winners who are stupid, unless it's funny like Fabio. Fabio even got confessionals where he alluded to his goofiness being a ploy to lay low in the game. Skupin is getting a redemption story, but one that seems more personally satisfying than indicative of Survivor glory.

RC: 4 (Loves Skupin)
Jeff Kent: 1 (Hates returning players)
Artis: 1 (Hates Skupin, according to post-show interviews)
Pete: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 2 (Betrayed by Skupin, may respect his game)
Carter: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria: 2 (Called him and idiot and a moron)
Juror Tally: 12

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-Despite the target on returning players, he made it to the Final 3.
-Survival experience benefitted Tandang tribe, who never went to Tribal pre-merge
-Underdog in his alliance, made moves to better his position

Things he should avoid:
-Holier-than-thou attitude. Don't call Pete, Abi or Artis "bad people", even though they were.
-The reward challenge where he made the rice trade. While arguably a good move, it pissed off all of his tribe mates.
-"Need". Skupin has a big family but is well-off.

Prediction: He'll only win if he: stays humble, pledges allegiance to Tandang yellow, owns his moves as self-preservation and is sitting next to both Malcolm and Denise. He needs Lisa on the jury to help garner favor for him, which probably isn't a likely outcome. With so much contempt for him and his gameplay, I don't think he'll be able to persuade any haters.

image courtesy of survivor dean

Malcolm is charismatic, athletic and a fan of the show. Mike and Lisa's decision to keep Denise in an attempt to beat Malcolm was terribly risky. On one hand, she definitely has a better shot of defeating Malcolm. But that also guarantees at least one of the original Matsing members is in the Final 3, if not both of them. Wouldn't you rather take your chances up against Malcolm knowing you'd have a better shot at Final 3 vs. Abi? Everyone is worried about Malcolm, as they should be. His edit has been very positive but not stellar. He comes off as cocky, something very few winners are shown as -- mainly the villainous ones like Hatch and Heidik, and Malcolm is no villain. His decision to turn on Denise could come back to bite him if word gets back to her that he was wishy-washy.

RC: 2 (Would more likely vote Skupin or Lisa, her Tandang brethren)
Kent: 3 (Physical threat, but he spent more time with Denise)
Artis: 4 (Not voting for Skupin, probably respects physicality)
Pete: 4 (More bitter towards Skupin/Lisa, probably respects physicality)
Penner: 1 (Did you see him flip off Malcolm at TC?)
Carter: 4 (Betrayed by Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria:4 (I'd like to put definite, but nobody knows where Abi's head will be at. Her voting Skupin doesn't make sense and she hates Denise. It's either Lisa or Malcolm)
Juror Tally: 22

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-So far, he's won the most immunities. The past 4 winners have all been the person to go into Final Tribal with the most Immunity Challenges under their belt (overall, the person in the FTC who won the most ICs has won the game 12 times and lost 11. In Panama, Aras and Danielle each had 1 IC win). Skupin/Denise could still possibly tie him. (Another fun fact- the final IC winner has only won the game 10/24 times, 4 of those being the last 4 winners Kim, Sophie, Rob and Fabio).
-Super underdog. He was on a sinking ship at Matsing, made it to Tandang and proved himself physically adept.
-Found HII and never had to play it
-Work his charm

Prediction: If he makes the Final Tribal Council he's a force to be reckoned with. However, he's not getting the hero edit most young male winners get. If he wins, he's being shown more like Aras, which was an anomaly because of bigger characters Cirie and Terry. My guess is Lisa's plan to keep Denise to defeat Malcolm will pay off and he'll head to the jury. If I'm wrong, he wins it all.

image courtesy of thegazette.com

Denise is the biggest underdog in the game. She's been to every Tribal Council of the season, yet she hasn't been edited as a cancer bringing the team down. Instead, her regard has been almost unanimously positive, except from Abi-Maria, the villain. It's unfortunate that her edit has been centered around just Abi bashing the past few weeks, as a well-rounded winner needs more oomph. Then again, Coach had all the oomph and Sophie pulled out the win.

RC: 1 (I don't remember any interaction between the two, she'd vote Mike/Malcolm first)
Kent: 4 (Only member of the Final Four he aligned with & spoke highly of)
Artis: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Pete: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Carter: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Abi-Maria: 1 (Rivalry with Denise)
Juror Tally: 18

What she needs to stress in her final speech:
-Went to EVERY TRIBAL COUNCIL and emerged unscathed.
-Loves to bring out Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. She's done all 3 very well
-Very articulate and concise when it comes to feelings, can probably use that to sway folks
-Loyalty
-Need of the $$

I think Denise has a great shot at winning, even against Malcolm. She is well-spoken and needs to emphasize her story. Play on the bitterness of the Tandang and appeal to the Kalabaw. Her edit, like Malcolm's, leaves me with some concern. They're both being overshadowed by someone, who doesn't deserve the win but may just eek it out.

image courtesy of haveuheard.net

Lisa. She's gotten so much focus in this game. Is she merely a great narrator on a personal journey, or can this woman, who has proclaimed over and over again how bad she is at this game, really win?

RC: 3 (Close with Skupin/Lisa)
Kent: 2 (She didn't flip on him but they weren't allies)
Artis: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Pete: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Penner: 4 (Shown connecting with her the most. I think he will win this or lose this for her, like Erik did to Natalie in Samoa)
Carter: 2 (Still betrayed)
Abi-Maria: 3 (Always placated by Lisa)
Juror Tally: 18

She's tied with Denise, making the ranking:
Malcolm 22
Denise/Lisa 18
Skupin 12

Which seems about right. Malcolm should win, but his edit isn't a runaway so I don't think he will. Skupin won't win, and we know that because everyone keeps saying that. So Denise and Lisa are evenly matched. Lisa has the editors on her side. She's been shown coming around to the game, especially with the help of her brother, Justice, who needs to be on my dream Family season (the cast of which I'll post below, for those interested).

As bitter as people are, I think Lisa will sway them. She did a great job of mentioning Tandang's winning streak, pleasing Pete and Artis. Previously, I thought she'd get 4th place with a Holly Hoffman redemption edit, but this seems bigger than that.

My biggest problem is that she hasn't made any moves. She's talked a big game but done nothing. She never had to vote until the merge. It was Michael who jumped at the opportunity to drop Artis, not her. She's screwed up with Malcolm's idol and shouldn't have told Penner he was going. Her post-Justice plan to axe Malcolm also didn't pan out over the course of two weeks. She should be getting torn apart by the jury, but the edit is treating her as if simply trying is good enough in Survivor. Its not.

My gut tells me Denise will win. The editing points to Lisa. The stats at this point say Malcolm has the best chance, but it's not a runaway and he needs that Immunity. I don't know about you, but I'm excited to see how this all shakes out. Who do you think will score the most jury votes and enter the Survivor winner's circle? Who will win Fan Favorite? My guess -- Malcolm. And how many people will get asked 0 questions at the finale? I'm thinking Roxy, Katie, Artis and Carter are all getting the shaft.

Leave some love below! Follow me on Twitter @miketvladue where I'll be live-tweeting the finale this Sunday at 8:00 EST! Check back next week, where I'll probably be trying to rationalize a Mike Skupin win. I'll also give an updated ranking of the winners and probably make a bunch of references to seasons you don't remember. It'll be a blast! Thanks for reading, happy finale!!

12/12/12 Episode grade: B+
Episode MVP: Malcolm

~Survivor: Family Edition Dream Cast~
1. Greg Buis' Sister, who left the creepy video message
2. Colby's Mom Gaye, who slept in the Aztek with him
3. Big Tom's son Bucky Bo, the craziest kid around
4. Kathy's son Patrick, who was just so apathetic about everything Survivor
5. Brian's stripper wife, because why not
6. Fairplay's friend Thunder D, because "she died, dude"
7. Rupert's wife Laura, because she got slobbery kisses all over her
8. Jenn's sister, because it would mean something
9. Shane's son Boston Powers, because he's probably old enough
10. Cirie's husband Honey Bunny, because she wouldn't marry a dud, right?
11. Terry's wife, because she seemed like a gamebot
12. Russell's wife Melanie, because who could marry him?
13. Amanda's sister, because she made all the bird calls
14. Matty's girlfriend, because she got proposed to
15. Taj's husband Eddie George, because famous
16. Colby's brother Reid, because COME ON, REID!!!
17. Fabio's mom, because Dayum
18. Kat's cousin Robby, because he was super weird
19. Lisa's brother Justice, because he rocked
20. Coach's assistant Coach, because WTF

TV Review: Survivor 25x09: Life > Game > Lisa

photo courtesy of tvequals.com

ML- Jonathan hit the nail on the head as to why he's such a beloved character on Survivor: he's a storyteller. He's basically doing the editors' jobs for them, spelling out the characters and their story. Lisa and Mike are the "Christian" group, not necessarily religious (though I know Skupin is mightily so, and I'm surprised that hasn't been made clearer given the show's recent infatuation with religious symbolism. He's been resurrected this season, for Christ's sake!) Survivor fans in the past have labeled Penner "Jonathan Christ, so he obviously fits in with them as well.

Abi-Maria, Pete and Artis are the "bully" group, and they've lived up to their title and then some. I can't believe how candid Abi-Maria is with Lisa and the rest of the tribe. She has literally no filter, and I can't hate her for it. Her immediate attack on Mike over the vote was spectacular, and I'm upset Penner 'fessed up. He may be the game's best storyteller, but he's not the best strategist.

That doesn't mean he can't work people. His manipulation of Lisa was some of the best I've ever seen done on the show. The two were both actors, though Penner never reached the same level of fame as Lisa. He came from a place of understanding, breaking down psychological barriers of child stardom. See, guys? Actors really have it rough.

Lisa pissed me off tonight. Sure, her emotional moment was touching and all. But she nearly had a breakdown after only one week of legitimate strategizing. The game, she lamented, was too big for her. Really, Lisa? A tired CBS reality show is too big for you? If Natalie White can win this, you'll be fine.

The Reward was my favorite moment, if only for the adorable misunderstanding with all the Filipino kids and Jonathan's "normal" name. Malcolm's enlightenment over giving back and working with kids again was equally moving. As hokey as the reward may seem to cynical audience members, I'm glad it had an impact on the contestants. Even mama Denise looked smitten by her herd of little ones.

Note about the Reward Challenge: A lot of people argue whether veterans have an inherent advantage returning to play again, which I mostly agree with, and I think they've proven it in the challenges this season. Mike was first to use the "toss pot high in the sky to dive at opponent" strategy a few weeks ago, and Penner's retrieval of all the bags was instrumental in Red's victory. Just saying.

The Immunity Challenge went by quickly, despite the apparent "learning curve", my favorite Probst-ism. I wondered whether I'd use my left hand to steady the paddle or roll the balls. By the time I made up my mind (hold left, roll right), Skupin had won. Good for him! Not a huge fan of his gameplay but it's nice to see him live one of his dreams. Of course, he gloated and boasted about it afterwards, in classic Skupin fashion.

He was the man to make the big move, though, despite the editing pointing us in the other direction. I bet fans who don't stick with the show to the final words assumed Lisa made the flop after all the awful treatment Abi-Maria showed her. No, Lisa still played the way of grace and loyalty and voted for Penner.

It was unsuspecting Artis who went home, though. He never really did anything of value this season except pick on Skupin, which makes sense now that Skupin got revenge. Denise was the mastermind of the plot, if you can call it that, based on her worry over Abi pulling the idol. Does Abi even know she can play her idol? Did Pete tell her yet? Either way, Denise got some positive strategy and some negative mocking of Abi finding the clam. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but I'm not so sure she's our winner anymore. Is Lisa shaping up to be America's sweetheart? Will Penner keep outsmarting these whippersnappers up to Final 3? Or could Pete pull a Brian Heidik and nastily drag a goat like Abi-Maria to the end? Let me hear your thoughts below!

Episode Grade: B+
Episode MVP: Jonathan Penner
Original Airdate: 11/14/2012

FYI: Gordon Holmes over at XFinity TV is a big Survivor fan and has established the Survivor Hall of Fame. This is the third year it's running and three more past contestants will be inducted into the Hall, following in the footsteps of:

-Parvati Shallow
-Boston Rob Mariano
-Richard Hatch
-Russell Hantz
-Sandra Diaz-Twine
-Ozzy Lusth
-Cirie Fields
-Tom Westman

To vote, tweet your ballot to @SurvivorHall or like the Survivor Hall of Fame on Facebook for more info. Any player listed above and any player from the current season are ineligible.

I'll be discussing my final ballot with my Dual co-host David Allen in our new podcast coming next week, but maybe you guys can help me decide! Since there are three spots, I tend to balance between the three Survivor "O's"- Outwit, Outplay and Outlast. Here are my preliminary picks: comment and share your thoughts below to help me whittle them down!

OUTWIT- Strategic Players
-Tina Wesson (Australia & All-Stars) WINNER
-Vecepia Towery (Marquesas) WINNER
-Brian Heidik (Thailand) WINNER
-Rob Cesternino (Amazon & All-Stars)
-Jonny Fairplay (Pearl Islands & Micronesia)
-Chris Daughtery (Vanuatu) WINNER
-Yul Kwon (Cook Islands) WINNER
-Earl Cole (Fiji) WINNER
-Yau-Man Chan (Fiji & Micronesia)
-Todd Herzog (China) WINNER
-Stephen Fishbach (Tocantins)
-Sophie Clarke (South Pacific) WINNER
-John Cochran (South Pacific)
-Kim Spradlin (One World) WINNER

OUTPLAY- Physical Players
-Kelly Wigglesworth (Borneo)
-Colby Donaldson (Australia, All-Stars & Heroes vs. Villains)
-Ethan Zohn (Africa & All-Stars) WINNER
-Ian Rosenberger (Palau)
-Danni Boatwright (Guatemala) WINNER
-Aras Baskauskas (Panama) WINNER
-Terry Deitz (Panama)
-Amanda Kimmell (China, Micronesia & Heroes vs. Villains)
-James Clement (China, Micronesia & Heroes vs. Villains)
-J.T. Thomas (Tocantins & Heroes vs. Villains) WINNER
-Jud "Fabio" Birza (Nicaragua) WINNER

OUTLAST- Survivor Icons
-Susan Hawk, Rat and Snake Speech / Quit (Borneo & All Stars)
-Rudy Boesch, America's Hero (Borneo & All-Stars)
-Elisabeth Hasselbeck, The View (Australia)
-Jerri Manthey, Black Widow (Australia, All-Stars & Heroes vs. Villains)
-Jenna Morasca, Chocolate & Peanut Butter (Amazon & All-Stars) WINNER
-Rupert Boneham, America's Player (Pearl Islands, All-Stars & Heroes vs. Villains)
-Jenn Lyon, Rest In Peace (Palau)
-Stephanie LaGarossa, Last Girl Standing (Palau, Guatemala, Heroes vs. Villains)
-Erik Reichenbach, Dumbest Move Ever (Micronesia)
-Ben "Coach" Wade, Dragon Slayer (Tocantins, Heroes vs. Villains, South Pacific)

Check back next week for my final ballot in the Dual Redundancy podcast!

TV Review: Survivor 25x08: Dumb and Dumber

photo courtesy of survivorfandom.com

ML- Lisa, the MVP of tonight's episode despite Penner's miraculous victory, dubbed this the season of Good vs. Evil, the evil being Pete/Abi/Artis and the good everyone else. I wouldn't say they're evil (well, maybe Abi-Maria is) as so much as dumb. So many blunders were made by this alliance tonight, and still they survived unscathed, thanks to the real mastermind, Lisa.

Pete isn't completely idiotic, but he's certainly not the mastermind he claims to be. I bet if I were ever on Survivor I'd end up playing a lot like Pete: overly confident in myself to the camera, thinking I had the game figured out, when really there were countless plans unfolding outside of my awareness. His handling of Abi-Maria, the island's resident she-wolf, has been near perfect; first he turned her against her main ally RC, then he kept her close as a potential Final 3 goat. She seems to have no idea, instead suspecting everyone and everything else of being against her.

His mistake was talking to Malcolm. Lisa put her neck on the line to tell Pete about Malcolm's idol and blindside the poor bastard. Some may see this as a bad move by Lisa, but I disagree- the only reason the whole plan backfired was Pete's stupid ass confronting Malcolm. When Malcolm got flustered and nervous, it seemed like Pete had confirmed his suspicions and would join Lisa's plot.

Nope. To Pete, Malcolm acting suspicious obviously meant he wasn't hiding anything. WAT A TOOL. Malcolm is a personable guy, especially while giving confessionals, but he wears his nerves on his sleeves. He's an easy tell and Pete should have picked up on it.

Instead, the target shifted every three seconds in a genuinely exhilarating segment captured perfectly by the camera crew. Plans changed from Skupin to Malcolm to Kent to Carter to Pete, and by Tribal Council, not even the contestants knew who would be going home.

I was surprised by how candid Lisa was at Tribal. She has been eloquent in her confessionals, much like Denise, Malcolm and Penner, the main reason I like these four so much. She understands the game and knows what must be done to make it to the end- go to the end with less-likable prey. Pete gets it, too, but Pete doesn't understand he's the second-least likable guy on the beach. Anyway, Lisa was honest with everyone about outing Malcolm's idol, playing both sides and possibly messing up her game. For her, honesty seems to be helping a bit.

Honesty did not help Abi-Maria, the ever bigger idiot of the night. First she clearly spelled out the alliance divisions to Malcolm and Mike, and her backtracking to Malcolm did little to persuade him back to the Tandang side. When Malcolm actually showed off the idol for everyone to see, Jeff asked if anyone else wanted to reveal their's. There's no telling what went through Abi-Maria's head to convince her that pulling out her idol was a good idea, but reveal it she did. That goes down as one of the dumbest Tribal Council moves, for me, but since it wasn't a fatal flaw, we'll let it slide in comparison to those done by Erik in Micronesia and Brandon in South Pacific.

Before the vote, a few contestants made last-minute pleas to the group as a whole, speaking in codes regarding "Plan B". When it came time to play the idol... nobody budged. I'd say it was smart for Malcolm and Abi not to use it, as it guarantees them both at least another week.

The votes came down, with 5 for Kent (Pete, Abi-Maria, Artis, Lisa and Skupin), 4 for Pete (Kent, Carter, Malcolm and Denise) and Penner's vote for Abi. Was he truly that out of the loop and thought Abi was the target? Did he throw away his vote as a big middle finger to Jeff Kent ("I could have tied it up for you, but I didn't")? Or was he stirring up trouble, as Abi-Maria will surely go on a witch hunt to track down the voter, a la Lex in Africa? I'm hoping it's the third one, and she delivers and epic meltdown.

Jeff Kent was admired by many, but not so much by me. He misplayed his hand last week and therefore deserves an early ouster. As he said in his final words, he's made over $60 million playing baseball, he doesn't need $1 million (before taxes, as mentioned in a well-timed but poorly-attributed dig to Obama) from this silly little game. Sure, Kent, remind us how successful you were. Keep padding your ego. Probst will probably ask you back for another season.

My prediction from last week was right! Jeff Kent went home, though I expected it to be a lot less confusing than this. My Final 9 prediction was Carter, and I'm still relatively confident in that, provided Jonathan did enough to turn the attention away from him. Who knows where this season is gonna go, but I'm finally coming around to it.

Episode Grade: A-
Episode MVP: Lisa Whelchel
Original Airdate: 11/07/2012