Survivor: Cagayan Episode 5 Strategy Blog: A Numbers Game?

via CBS.com

by Mike Ladue

Even casual fans have probably heard the phrase, "Survivor is a numbers game." But is it true?

Ultimately, yes. To win Survivor you need more votes than each of the other people sitting next to you at Final Tribal Council. But until that point, Survivor is most certainly not a numbers game. You can point to the introduction of the Hidden Immunity Idol in Guatemala as a major shift in the dynamic, where a person on the wrong end of a unanimous vote can live to fight another day. But really, Survivor has never been a numbers game due to the inherent presence of the plain-old Immunity challenge. Theoretically, a contestant could be immune from the vote in every single Tribal Council, both tribal and post-merge, and never have to worry about the numbers until FTC. (And let's be honest, if someone won every. single. challenge., how could you not reward him/her with your million-dollar vote?)

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #9: Survivor isn't a numbers game, it's a people's game. Had LJ been from any of the other 49 U.S. states, he'd probably have gone home -- or at least used his HII. But being from Masachussetts, he forged a connection with Trish, who did some talking to Tony, who all teamed up with Jefra to oust Cliff. I've never witnessed such a turn of events in the show's history; one's hometown saving someone from elimination. LJ gets the MVP of tonight's episode, simply by being born at the right place. (And also for playing it so damn cool when pressed on the HII. Unless the editors just showed random stone-faced shots at opportune moments, LJ should switch careers with Garrett and become a pro poker player.)

Cliff did everything right. He established strong bonds early on with the right people. Sure, the crazy lady on the tribe disliked him, but she disliked Lindsay WAY more. And Cliff was an asset in challenges! Did you see him holding that pole? The entire Aparri tribe could have latched onto him, like the orcs hacking on ents at the end of Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, and he still wouldn't have budged.

But Cliff was Cliff. He is a person, and some people don't like other people -- especially celebrity people who make a lot of money. I knew it'd be Cliff's downfall, though I expected -- for other contestant's sakes -- for it to come way later in the game, even at FTC, when numbers actually matter.

In Cliff's mind it was 4 vs. 3, the fourth being Tony. But Tony had been sowing seeds to dethrone Cliff since he spilled the beans to Sarah about the fake conversation. And Cliff's intimidation tactic definitely didn't work on Tony, who's got a lot to prove to the boys in blue back home. And Cliff wasn't about to get on his knees and beg (though I wish he had, though, because he'd probably still tower over poor Tony). It's reminiscent of Brenda's unwillingness to scramble to save herself in Nicaragua. Had these two swallowed their pride, they might have lasted a bit longer.

Tony made the right move tonight. It's obvious he was out of the Cliffhangers (™) alliance and would have been cut loose after at most two more losses, or sooner should Cliff and co. start seeing his physical strength as a post-merge threat. And, assuming Tony did make the merge, he'd probably join up with Sarah, who'd still be hell bent on voting out Cliff. This was the tidiest move for Tony, as it ties up loose ends.

Alternatively, had he blindsided LJ, he'd firmly establish a Brawn alliance, or at least project that image to the other tribe. Sarah, his Cops-R-Us ally, would probably be targeted. This move keeps her safe and moves the target to the Beauties on Aparri, who stand to gain more come the merge with LJ and Jefra in play.

To be fair, the Beauties are doing a good job targeting themselves. Alexis and Morgan's cat fight shows, again, numbers in Survivor are superficial. 3 Beauties =/= 3 Allies. The only reason the 3 Brains = 3 Allies is because they've played more game. As Cliff noted, the [NBA] series doesn't start until you lose your first game. Compared to Sarah and the Beauties, Kass/Tasha/Spencer are seasoned veterans. My first instinct was that Sarah would be the swing vote in a Brains v Beauty beatdown. Now, it looks like it'll be Morgan vs Alexis, with Sarah the one sitting pretty out of harm's way.

The Brains are getting a fantastic edit. I can see these three going all the way now, like the Jalapao 3 or Foa Foa 4 (OK, I guess Erinn outlasted Taj in Tocantins and Brett outlasted Jaison in Samoa, but they're still examples of underdogs nearly sweeping the competition). But none of them are giving off Winner vibes yet, which is great. The editors are keeping lots of characters in play, and it's making for a great season of TV.

Up For Grabs

-MVP: LJ, you stone cold fox, you.

-Winner Pick: I'll start doing rankings?
1. Spencer (Could it be that obvious? He's getting a glowing edit)
2. Tasha (Team Brains, but not enough to single her out as favorable)
3. Kass (Team Brains, but way too much negativity)
4. Sarah (Team CopsRUs, but starting to feel more Stephenie than Danni)
5. Morgan (If a Beauty does it, it'll be her)
6. Tony (We didn't even see his reaction to being separated from Sarah? Bad news)
7. LJ (Solid, not spectacular)
8. Woo (Too quiet)
9. Jeremiah (Too much foreshadowing of his downfall)
10. Jefra (Too little character)
11. Alexis (Too much negative perception)
12. Trish (That branch hit her in the head in Ep 1, and by God I'm sticking to that)
13. Lindsay (Probst on the beach next week = not a good sign)

-Sarah outing Morgan's secret about the rice vs. HII choice goes to show how hard it is to successfully maintain a lie out there.

-Hopefully the reunion will feature a twerk-off between Trish and Alexis.

-Jeff Probst doesn't know the sex of the Immunity Idol, so he checks the crotch. Oh Jeff.

-Are gongs traditional instruments in Filipino culture? Seemed out of place to me.

-Trish said she's no Mrs. Robinson. Right, Trish, that was Kail on Big Brother 8, and we all know how well she did (not very).

-Did Tony make the right choice? Is Lindsay gonna quit? Can the Brains go all the way? Cast your thoughts below or send a treemail tweet to: @miketvladue.

TV Catch-Up: Survivor Philippines: Fate of the Final Four

image courtesy of survivoroz

ML- We have our final four! I think this is one of the best final fours in recent memory. It's also the final four I predicted back at the merge! Here's a note: If they focus on a final four/three pact positively, they most likely make it to the end (stretching back to Tagi, Colby/Tina/Keith, Boran, V/Neleh/Kathy/Pappy/Sean, Chuay Ghan, Romber, Aitu, Todd/Amanda, Black Widow Brigade, JT/Stephen, Foa Foa Foursome, Boston Rob + The Rob Zombies, Upolu, Kim/Chelsea). Alliances shown negatively can generally be deciphered by their music cues- think about the Four Horsemen of FIji or even Yau/Penner/Ami/Eliza in Micronesia. Flourishing music - endgame, sporadic frumpy tones = bumbling idiots filling up the jury. Anyway, I'd say everyone has a decent shot of swaying enough jurors with the right Final Tribal speech. But what should each person say to make his/her case?

The jury so far consists of RC, Jeff Kent, Artis, Pete, Penner, Carter and now Abi-Maria. That's 4 former Tandang members and 3 former Kalabal, with at least one more to join. According to Dalton Ross at Entertainment Weekly, there's only one more person joining the jury and a Final 3. That's surprising, as only two seasons out of the past 24 have done that: Australia, which added 3 extra days, and China, for reasons I don't remember. That being said, it's not unprecedented.

One school of thought is that there was too much story to tell that they decided to split things up differently in editing. Or, perhaps something happens at Final 4 that takes a bit of time. It would make sense for there to be a tie vote, seeing as how its 2 Tandang vs. 2 Matsing left, and a fire-making challenge would be an epic precursor to the finale. Please, Survivor gods, let Skupin be subjected to a fire-making challenge AND WIN. That would be such poetic justice, the man finally conquering fire that took him out of the game over 10 years ago.

As a metric for determining who has the best chances, I'll rank the likelihood of each juror voting for each contestant if he/she makes it to the final 3. If its the person a juror is most likely to vote for, that person gets a 4, while least likely gets a 1. Make sense? Let's start with Skupin.

image courtesy of survivor fever.net

Mike Skupin is a returning player, and all we've seen this season is animosity towards returning players. On his tribe, he's been regarded most positively by RC, the first juror. He's also gotten positivity from Lisa and Penner, but the favor with the latter man seems to have turned. Contestants in the opposing Tandang faction of Abi-Maria, Artis and Pete have all spoke ill of him, especially Abi last night calling him an idiot and a moron. Survivor doesn't like to show us winners who are stupid, unless it's funny like Fabio. Fabio even got confessionals where he alluded to his goofiness being a ploy to lay low in the game. Skupin is getting a redemption story, but one that seems more personally satisfying than indicative of Survivor glory.

RC: 4 (Loves Skupin)
Jeff Kent: 1 (Hates returning players)
Artis: 1 (Hates Skupin, according to post-show interviews)
Pete: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 2 (Betrayed by Skupin, may respect his game)
Carter: 1 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria: 2 (Called him and idiot and a moron)
Juror Tally: 12

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-Despite the target on returning players, he made it to the Final 3.
-Survival experience benefitted Tandang tribe, who never went to Tribal pre-merge
-Underdog in his alliance, made moves to better his position

Things he should avoid:
-Holier-than-thou attitude. Don't call Pete, Abi or Artis "bad people", even though they were.
-The reward challenge where he made the rice trade. While arguably a good move, it pissed off all of his tribe mates.
-"Need". Skupin has a big family but is well-off.

Prediction: He'll only win if he: stays humble, pledges allegiance to Tandang yellow, owns his moves as self-preservation and is sitting next to both Malcolm and Denise. He needs Lisa on the jury to help garner favor for him, which probably isn't a likely outcome. With so much contempt for him and his gameplay, I don't think he'll be able to persuade any haters.

image courtesy of survivor dean

Malcolm is charismatic, athletic and a fan of the show. Mike and Lisa's decision to keep Denise in an attempt to beat Malcolm was terribly risky. On one hand, she definitely has a better shot of defeating Malcolm. But that also guarantees at least one of the original Matsing members is in the Final 3, if not both of them. Wouldn't you rather take your chances up against Malcolm knowing you'd have a better shot at Final 3 vs. Abi? Everyone is worried about Malcolm, as they should be. His edit has been very positive but not stellar. He comes off as cocky, something very few winners are shown as -- mainly the villainous ones like Hatch and Heidik, and Malcolm is no villain. His decision to turn on Denise could come back to bite him if word gets back to her that he was wishy-washy.

RC: 2 (Would more likely vote Skupin or Lisa, her Tandang brethren)
Kent: 3 (Physical threat, but he spent more time with Denise)
Artis: 4 (Not voting for Skupin, probably respects physicality)
Pete: 4 (More bitter towards Skupin/Lisa, probably respects physicality)
Penner: 1 (Did you see him flip off Malcolm at TC?)
Carter: 4 (Betrayed by Skupin/Lisa)
Abi-Maria:4 (I'd like to put definite, but nobody knows where Abi's head will be at. Her voting Skupin doesn't make sense and she hates Denise. It's either Lisa or Malcolm)
Juror Tally: 22

What he needs to stress in his final speech:
-So far, he's won the most immunities. The past 4 winners have all been the person to go into Final Tribal with the most Immunity Challenges under their belt (overall, the person in the FTC who won the most ICs has won the game 12 times and lost 11. In Panama, Aras and Danielle each had 1 IC win). Skupin/Denise could still possibly tie him. (Another fun fact- the final IC winner has only won the game 10/24 times, 4 of those being the last 4 winners Kim, Sophie, Rob and Fabio).
-Super underdog. He was on a sinking ship at Matsing, made it to Tandang and proved himself physically adept.
-Found HII and never had to play it
-Work his charm

Prediction: If he makes the Final Tribal Council he's a force to be reckoned with. However, he's not getting the hero edit most young male winners get. If he wins, he's being shown more like Aras, which was an anomaly because of bigger characters Cirie and Terry. My guess is Lisa's plan to keep Denise to defeat Malcolm will pay off and he'll head to the jury. If I'm wrong, he wins it all.

image courtesy of thegazette.com

Denise is the biggest underdog in the game. She's been to every Tribal Council of the season, yet she hasn't been edited as a cancer bringing the team down. Instead, her regard has been almost unanimously positive, except from Abi-Maria, the villain. It's unfortunate that her edit has been centered around just Abi bashing the past few weeks, as a well-rounded winner needs more oomph. Then again, Coach had all the oomph and Sophie pulled out the win.

RC: 1 (I don't remember any interaction between the two, she'd vote Mike/Malcolm first)
Kent: 4 (Only member of the Final Four he aligned with & spoke highly of)
Artis: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Pete: 3 (Bitter against Skupin/Lisa)
Penner: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Carter: 3 (Aligned with her on Kalabaw)
Abi-Maria: 1 (Rivalry with Denise)
Juror Tally: 18

What she needs to stress in her final speech:
-Went to EVERY TRIBAL COUNCIL and emerged unscathed.
-Loves to bring out Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. She's done all 3 very well
-Very articulate and concise when it comes to feelings, can probably use that to sway folks
-Loyalty
-Need of the $$

I think Denise has a great shot at winning, even against Malcolm. She is well-spoken and needs to emphasize her story. Play on the bitterness of the Tandang and appeal to the Kalabaw. Her edit, like Malcolm's, leaves me with some concern. They're both being overshadowed by someone, who doesn't deserve the win but may just eek it out.

image courtesy of haveuheard.net

Lisa. She's gotten so much focus in this game. Is she merely a great narrator on a personal journey, or can this woman, who has proclaimed over and over again how bad she is at this game, really win?

RC: 3 (Close with Skupin/Lisa)
Kent: 2 (She didn't flip on him but they weren't allies)
Artis: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Pete: 2 (Tandang loyalty but in opposite alliances)
Penner: 4 (Shown connecting with her the most. I think he will win this or lose this for her, like Erik did to Natalie in Samoa)
Carter: 2 (Still betrayed)
Abi-Maria: 3 (Always placated by Lisa)
Juror Tally: 18

She's tied with Denise, making the ranking:
Malcolm 22
Denise/Lisa 18
Skupin 12

Which seems about right. Malcolm should win, but his edit isn't a runaway so I don't think he will. Skupin won't win, and we know that because everyone keeps saying that. So Denise and Lisa are evenly matched. Lisa has the editors on her side. She's been shown coming around to the game, especially with the help of her brother, Justice, who needs to be on my dream Family season (the cast of which I'll post below, for those interested).

As bitter as people are, I think Lisa will sway them. She did a great job of mentioning Tandang's winning streak, pleasing Pete and Artis. Previously, I thought she'd get 4th place with a Holly Hoffman redemption edit, but this seems bigger than that.

My biggest problem is that she hasn't made any moves. She's talked a big game but done nothing. She never had to vote until the merge. It was Michael who jumped at the opportunity to drop Artis, not her. She's screwed up with Malcolm's idol and shouldn't have told Penner he was going. Her post-Justice plan to axe Malcolm also didn't pan out over the course of two weeks. She should be getting torn apart by the jury, but the edit is treating her as if simply trying is good enough in Survivor. Its not.

My gut tells me Denise will win. The editing points to Lisa. The stats at this point say Malcolm has the best chance, but it's not a runaway and he needs that Immunity. I don't know about you, but I'm excited to see how this all shakes out. Who do you think will score the most jury votes and enter the Survivor winner's circle? Who will win Fan Favorite? My guess -- Malcolm. And how many people will get asked 0 questions at the finale? I'm thinking Roxy, Katie, Artis and Carter are all getting the shaft.

Leave some love below! Follow me on Twitter @miketvladue where I'll be live-tweeting the finale this Sunday at 8:00 EST! Check back next week, where I'll probably be trying to rationalize a Mike Skupin win. I'll also give an updated ranking of the winners and probably make a bunch of references to seasons you don't remember. It'll be a blast! Thanks for reading, happy finale!!

12/12/12 Episode grade: B+
Episode MVP: Malcolm

~Survivor: Family Edition Dream Cast~
1. Greg Buis' Sister, who left the creepy video message
2. Colby's Mom Gaye, who slept in the Aztek with him
3. Big Tom's son Bucky Bo, the craziest kid around
4. Kathy's son Patrick, who was just so apathetic about everything Survivor
5. Brian's stripper wife, because why not
6. Fairplay's friend Thunder D, because "she died, dude"
7. Rupert's wife Laura, because she got slobbery kisses all over her
8. Jenn's sister, because it would mean something
9. Shane's son Boston Powers, because he's probably old enough
10. Cirie's husband Honey Bunny, because she wouldn't marry a dud, right?
11. Terry's wife, because she seemed like a gamebot
12. Russell's wife Melanie, because who could marry him?
13. Amanda's sister, because she made all the bird calls
14. Matty's girlfriend, because she got proposed to
15. Taj's husband Eddie George, because famous
16. Colby's brother Reid, because COME ON, REID!!!
17. Fabio's mom, because Dayum
18. Kat's cousin Robby, because he was super weird
19. Lisa's brother Justice, because he rocked
20. Coach's assistant Coach, because WTF

TV Review: Survivor 25x08: Dumb and Dumber

photo courtesy of survivorfandom.com

ML- Lisa, the MVP of tonight's episode despite Penner's miraculous victory, dubbed this the season of Good vs. Evil, the evil being Pete/Abi/Artis and the good everyone else. I wouldn't say they're evil (well, maybe Abi-Maria is) as so much as dumb. So many blunders were made by this alliance tonight, and still they survived unscathed, thanks to the real mastermind, Lisa.

Pete isn't completely idiotic, but he's certainly not the mastermind he claims to be. I bet if I were ever on Survivor I'd end up playing a lot like Pete: overly confident in myself to the camera, thinking I had the game figured out, when really there were countless plans unfolding outside of my awareness. His handling of Abi-Maria, the island's resident she-wolf, has been near perfect; first he turned her against her main ally RC, then he kept her close as a potential Final 3 goat. She seems to have no idea, instead suspecting everyone and everything else of being against her.

His mistake was talking to Malcolm. Lisa put her neck on the line to tell Pete about Malcolm's idol and blindside the poor bastard. Some may see this as a bad move by Lisa, but I disagree- the only reason the whole plan backfired was Pete's stupid ass confronting Malcolm. When Malcolm got flustered and nervous, it seemed like Pete had confirmed his suspicions and would join Lisa's plot.

Nope. To Pete, Malcolm acting suspicious obviously meant he wasn't hiding anything. WAT A TOOL. Malcolm is a personable guy, especially while giving confessionals, but he wears his nerves on his sleeves. He's an easy tell and Pete should have picked up on it.

Instead, the target shifted every three seconds in a genuinely exhilarating segment captured perfectly by the camera crew. Plans changed from Skupin to Malcolm to Kent to Carter to Pete, and by Tribal Council, not even the contestants knew who would be going home.

I was surprised by how candid Lisa was at Tribal. She has been eloquent in her confessionals, much like Denise, Malcolm and Penner, the main reason I like these four so much. She understands the game and knows what must be done to make it to the end- go to the end with less-likable prey. Pete gets it, too, but Pete doesn't understand he's the second-least likable guy on the beach. Anyway, Lisa was honest with everyone about outing Malcolm's idol, playing both sides and possibly messing up her game. For her, honesty seems to be helping a bit.

Honesty did not help Abi-Maria, the ever bigger idiot of the night. First she clearly spelled out the alliance divisions to Malcolm and Mike, and her backtracking to Malcolm did little to persuade him back to the Tandang side. When Malcolm actually showed off the idol for everyone to see, Jeff asked if anyone else wanted to reveal their's. There's no telling what went through Abi-Maria's head to convince her that pulling out her idol was a good idea, but reveal it she did. That goes down as one of the dumbest Tribal Council moves, for me, but since it wasn't a fatal flaw, we'll let it slide in comparison to those done by Erik in Micronesia and Brandon in South Pacific.

Before the vote, a few contestants made last-minute pleas to the group as a whole, speaking in codes regarding "Plan B". When it came time to play the idol... nobody budged. I'd say it was smart for Malcolm and Abi not to use it, as it guarantees them both at least another week.

The votes came down, with 5 for Kent (Pete, Abi-Maria, Artis, Lisa and Skupin), 4 for Pete (Kent, Carter, Malcolm and Denise) and Penner's vote for Abi. Was he truly that out of the loop and thought Abi was the target? Did he throw away his vote as a big middle finger to Jeff Kent ("I could have tied it up for you, but I didn't")? Or was he stirring up trouble, as Abi-Maria will surely go on a witch hunt to track down the voter, a la Lex in Africa? I'm hoping it's the third one, and she delivers and epic meltdown.

Jeff Kent was admired by many, but not so much by me. He misplayed his hand last week and therefore deserves an early ouster. As he said in his final words, he's made over $60 million playing baseball, he doesn't need $1 million (before taxes, as mentioned in a well-timed but poorly-attributed dig to Obama) from this silly little game. Sure, Kent, remind us how successful you were. Keep padding your ego. Probst will probably ask you back for another season.

My prediction from last week was right! Jeff Kent went home, though I expected it to be a lot less confusing than this. My Final 9 prediction was Carter, and I'm still relatively confident in that, provided Jonathan did enough to turn the attention away from him. Who knows where this season is gonna go, but I'm finally coming around to it.

Episode Grade: A-
Episode MVP: Lisa Whelchel
Original Airdate: 11/07/2012

TV Recap: Survivor 25x06 & 25x07: Down to The Final 10

photo courtesy of examiner.com

ML- Many apologies for the belated reviews from the past 2 weeks of Survivor. Scheduling shows in has been difficult with a full schedule, let alone forming reviews. This season has been interesting, but I'm still waiting for it to kick into high gear. The merge episode could be seen as a step in the right direction, or an example of continued mediocre gameplay.

First, a jump back to the previous week, where Katie was eliminated. Kalabaw (which I unintentionally referred to as Kalabal every episode, showing how invested I am in this season) and Tandang faced a stalemate in the big ball Reward Challenge and struck a deal over rice. Tandang, which was consuming ALL OF THE RICE thanks to Skupin's selfish ways, agreed to take rice while Penner and the Kalabaws (awesome band name, by the way) took the big barbeque reward.

I'm surprised at how the deal was edited. Survivor fans know that big feast rewards may seem great going in, but they always go right through contestants' systems, leaving them worse off. A stable cache of rice would be the smarter, less appetizing move. The editors decided to show Skupin as the idiot and Penner as the hero, however. This really doesn't bode well for Skupin's chances at winning the game.

He wasn't in much of a position to win, anyway, but could have been had he and RC joined forces with  Jeff Kent and the Kalabaws (anything "and the Kalabaws" sounds awesome for a band). Jeff Kent had two options: keep himself, Carter, a loyal Penner, Denise, RC and Michael together and boot Pete. Sure, Malcolm is a threat, but for the first week it wouldn't be smart to put Denise in a position of having to backstab her ally. That way, the opposing power alliance of Pete, Abi, Artis and Lisa could be disintegrated, and future blindsides could be in play for Malcolm, Penner and Skupin. Kent and Carter could leisurely stroll to the finals and Kent could win.

Instead, he freaked out over returning players and targeted Jonathan and his idol. It backfired, and he lost a potential ally. Now it's Kent vs. Penner and Tandang has an even greater majority despite losing a number in RC. Denise must be a bad luck charm because all the tribes she's a part of die.

The most important part of the episode was Lisa finding Malcolm's idol and striking a Final 3 deal with him and Denise. This could potentially work out, provided Pete and Abi don't make a surge to the endgame. As Malcolm said, though, going to the finals with either of those ladies could be Survivor suicide, as they'd garner social votes. Lisa is impressing me with her Holly Hoffman-style strategic comeback, but previews for next week show her getting pretty trigger-happy (machete-happy?).

So Final 10. Here are my perfect predictions for how the rest of the season will play out:

10. Jeff Kent. The Penner "slash and burn" preview is a false alarm, as it was for Rory in Vanuatu and Sandra in HvV. Kent is more of a threat since Penner is idol-less.
9. Carter. Kent's lackey.
8. Penner. Goodbye, America's Happy Warrior.
7. Pete. Malcolm/Denise/Lisa pull in Mike to turn the tide.
6. Abi-Maria.
5. Artis.
4. Lisa.
3. Skupin. Returning player fatigue/unlikable
2. Malcolm. Close but...
1. Denise. No cigar. Denise survives every Tribal Council and defeats her former Matsing ally by 1 vote.

Episode Grades: B, B+
Episodes MVP: Jonathan Penner
Original Airdates: 10/24/12 and 10/31/12

TV Review: Survivor 25x05: Everybody Loves an Underdog

ML- The Matsing tribe is no more! Malcolm and Denise were randomly absorbed into Tandang and Kalabal, respectively, but not before Malcolm discovered the Hidden Immunity Idol on the Matsing beach. He and the Tandangs cruised to victory while Kalabal struggled in the challenge due to Katie's ineffectiveness. In the end, it was dirty girl Dawson who got sent packing from the dwindling girl alliance. She may have given Jeff Probst a hug and a kiss, but she went out without ever revealing the dirt on Jeff Kent.

The MVP of the episode was definitely Malcolm, who found the idol as well as acceptance on his new tribe from everyone, including poor bullied RC and naive Pete, who divulged his own idol to Malcolm. He's in a great place and is a major threat to go deep into the end, and could ride his wave of favorability to a win.

The LVP, if thats a thing, belongs to Dana. Having never been on the island playing Survivor, its easy for me to say there would be no conditions that could take me out of the game. However, her severe pains and chills weren't alleviated in the pounding rain, and the tiny country tomboy opted out of continuing, even though the doctors gave her a go-ahead. Not only did she screw over herself, she ruined things for Katie and Dawson on Kalabal. If the red tribe loses again, Katie is in some hot water.

That's all for this week. Kalabal is so divided that it made for a less-than-interesting Tribal. I'm hoping Tandang heads to TV soon so the Abi-RC battle thats been brewing can come to a head.

Episode Grade: B-
Episode MVP: Malcolm
Original Airdate: 10/17/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x04: Swan Prince or Ugly Duckling?

ML- Returning players risk a lot when they sign up for Survivor a second time. Jenna Morasca won season 6 and agreed to return for All-Stars despite her mom being sick with cancer (She ultimately quit and made it home in time to say goodbye before her mom passed). Those blessed with golden edits their first time around like J.T. and James open themselves up to be portrayed in completely different lights; as bumbling idiots and sore losers.

I think the worst thing to happen to a returning player is to be disappointed by an early elimination. Did anybody really enjoy the first half of All-Stars, as Tina, Rudy, Rob C, Jenna M, Hatch, Colby, Ethan and Jerri ALL went home pre-merge, while the likes of Alicia, Jenna L, Shi-Ann, Amber, Lex and Big Tom took the top spots? Same goes for Fairplay and Yau-Man in Micronesia, and Cirie and Tom in Heroes vs. Villains. Going home early is a hit to your confidence, as if maybe the first appearance was the fluke and this is your true measure as a player.

For Russell Swan, however, he doesn't even get that comparison. His first outing he failed on the physical level. This time he failed again, even worse, on the social and mental level. He wasn't by any means "All-Star" worthy to come back to play, and a second shot at the title affirmed he is just another mediocre competitor. His post show interviews have been painful to read and listed to -- the man clearly loved the game, he just had no understanding of his position in it or, most unfortunately, how to play it well.

Granted, he wasn't blessed with the most skilled competitors, but I'd choose Denise and Malcolm over any of the other blokes (minus Penner) any day. Tribes like Koror in Palau have been stacked with misfits and gone on to dominate under proper leadership. As much as he wants to be, Russell Swan is no leader. He was the ugly duckling of Survivor hoping to finally get his break, and this wasn't it.

Denise and Malcolm are in trouble. If the tribes stay the same, eventually they'll have to compete head-to-head in a fire building challenge for who gets to stay. If there is a tribe dissolve, they'll be separated without an idol and left to fend for themselves against the former six Tandang or Kalabal members. Chances are that they'll have some trouble fitting in.

The challenge was incredibly close, and one of the best finishes the show has had in a while. Many things about the episode were great; I mostly loved the wordless opening of Matsing members seated in the rain just trying to cope with their existence. Once upon a time, this was a show about real people taken out of their element and most of the episodes focused on camp life and cultural discrepancies. Today, everyone has either played before or is a D-list celebrity or aspiring model/actor and the episodes highlight the drama and cut out the "reality". Hearing Russell's story to Denise about punching someone as a kid was almost awkward for today's Survivor, but would have fit in nicely in season 1. As much as I love strategy, this was a welcome escape.

Tandang is full of strategy. Pete has surpassed my expectations and become the troublemaker of the tribe. He's got Abi-Maria, Artis and possibly Lisa under his wing and has successfully framed RC as a liar. RC is too dumb to suspect foul play and fails to adapt to the changing dynamics of the tribe. Abi-Maria is not your friend or ally, RC. The sooner you get that through your brain and figure out where the true power lies the better chance you have at avoiding elimination.

Kalabal has some strategic rumblings as well, mostly on the part of Jeff and Penner. The Hidden Immunity Idol-bearing Veteran and the wounded baseball legend have teamed up along with the most invisible player in recent memory, Carter, to form a boys club. Dana, Dawson and Katie are rightly suspicious and formed their own posse. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Denise or Malcolm is absorbed into this tribe and if the gender battle continues.

So which tribe is better positioned now? It'll be hard to pick a better twosome than Malcolm/Denise for challenges, but it makes more sense that there will be a dissolve. Honestly, whichever tribe acquires Malcolm will probably be the one to succeed. With tribes even again, there's nowhere to hide your weak players, so the manpower will prevail in the increasingly physical challenges of recent seasons. Shame, because I, like Russell, am willing to write over a check to Denise in the off chance she makes the finale.

Episode Grade: B+
Episode MVP: The Editors, for including the slo-mo shot and the nostalgic scenes
Original Airdate: 10/10/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x03: The Four-Finger Plan

ML- Big props to Malcolm this week, who was able to put the good of the tribe as a whole (and himself in the long run) ahead of his sexual desires and boot out Angie. It was no surprise to the audience watching that Angie was going, especially after her opening confessional where she boasted "each and every one of my tribe mates trusts me and I trust them". Yeah, okay. If I ever went on Survivor, I'd be in a Jamie Newton-level constant state of paranoia, never telling the camera I was confident about anything so they could never use it against me in the edit.

Pete emerged as a threat tonight as he formed a tentative alliance between himself, Abi-Maria, Artis and Lisa, alienating RC and his eventual threat, Skupin. Abi-Maria is in the best place of everyone on that tribe, having positioned herself into 2 alliances and holding the Hidden Immunity Idol she found about thanks to RC's clue. Unfortunately for her, she's in a Natalie Bolton-level constant state of batshit craziness. I don't see her or Peter, who now reminds me of Gregg Carey in Palau, taking this all the way to the end.

On Kalabal, Penner was still on the outs. I have to praise him for managing to say the phrase My Ass!, though, while mentioning how his aforementioned body part was hurting from the shelter. When Jeff and Dana noticed the bull emblem was gone, they alerted the tribe that he probably had a hidden immunity idol. Jeff was respectful, not angry, noting how Penner as a returning player was playing smarter than everyone else.

When Penner later approached Jeff, it was a good move for the veteran to try and gain favor, but unfortunately his new "alliance" didn't feel the same way. A four-fingered shake, as it seems, is not a real binding handshake because men need to use all 5 fingers to shake for real. The logistics behind this baffle me and I can only come to the conclusion that Jeff is an idiot.

Matsing continued their bad-luck streak by losing their boat, as well as the Immunity challenge and accompanying rewards. Momentum is probably the most important factor in Survivor, as it affects morale and contestants' mindsets in unbelievable ways. Matsing is in deep trouble, even without Angie to keep the average IQ down.

It's hard to pick a favorite to win in the game right now. Statistically, it doesn't make sense to put money on any of the Matsing members. Kalabal just isn't getting the screentime or story lines they need to signify a late-game surge. Tandang gets a lot of strategy, so the best winner bet probably comes from here. Is it Pete? Skupin? RC? Abi? Lisa? Definitely not Artis.

My money is still on Denise, despite the odds. She kept Malcolm in line, dominated the challenge and keeps me interested in her as a player despite her negative attractiveness. She needs to stop mentioning her practice and the money she makes back home, however, or else people will never give her the vote based on lack of need.

Episode Grade: C+
Episode MVP: Abi-Maria and Pete
Original Airdate: 10/03/2012

TV Review: Survivor 25x02: Booty Blinded By Booby Traps

ML-

Roxxxxxxxanne
You don't have to call out the showmance
Subtly sew distrust,
It'll be more effective than freaking out at Tribal Council and alienating everyone by speaking in tongues

Okay, I may have botched that song a little bit, but I haven't had a lot of water today... so...

Matsing (aka Tribe 1 for either arbitrary or spoilery reasons), fell apart even further this week as a showmance splintered trust and nobody stepped up to lead in the challenge. Worst of all, the tribe doesn't even have cookies.

The tragic thing is, Roxy was completely right about Malcolm and Angie. A pair, especially an athletic relationship, is either the most dangerous or the most vulnerable position in the game. In a tribe of 5, everyone needed to unite against Malcolm/Angie, which was never going to happen thanks to my winner pick, Sex Therapist Denise. I assume she saw Malcolm and Angie as potential clients and the subjects of her next book, Love in the Wild: How to Survive Being Backstabbed By Sea Snakes and Get Crabs Out Of Your Buff. She also astutely pointed out that, despite Malcolm being her main ally, being the odd-person out in a threesome is what the sex therapists refer to as the worst. But the timing wasn't right to betray her only ally, so Roxy had to go.

Roxy's pre-challenge behavior was elimination-worthy on its own. After a terrible rainstorm, Roxy began speaking in tongues and praising the lord like Jameka from Big Brother 8. Nothing against her religion, but speaking in tongues can be a red flag that someone's head may not be 100% in the game of Survivor. Take Dr. Denise, for example. She says that anything that gets her to the end of the game will be of her own doing, not God's or anyone elses.

Over on Tandang, Lisa further distanced herself from her tribemates by sitting alone at the well and crying, which has made the majority alliance go from 4 to 5 with Artis now included. If Tandang loses, Lisa is in trouble, unless she can pull some type of Holly Hoffman maneuver and turn her sorrows into strength. Meanwhile, Abi-Maria and RC Became the most dysfunctional alliance since Russell & Parvati. All RC wanted was to trust Abi-Maria with her idol clue, but Abi-Maria was so threatened by RC's bond with Skupin that she threatened to kill her if ever betrayed. Healthy stuff right there. Abi-Maria is a little too crazy for this game, but makes good TV and I'd love to see her blindsided!

At Kalabal, Jonathan used his brain and figured out the clue meant the idol was under the nose of the bull pendant wedged in their welcome basket. Now he's got an idol, which he'll probably have to use at his first tribal considering we haven't seen any other strategizing by him yet. He better keep those glasses on, because he'll need another hidden immunity idol after this one gets used.

Tribal Council was entertaining with all the bitchy back-and-forth between Roxanne and Angie, whose cookie comment wasn't as dumb as Probst made it out to be. Malcolm's "little sister" comment about Angie was, however, pretty dumb, unless it's comparable to Kat and her cousin from last season.

In the end, two dangerous pairs remained in the game with Malcolm smack dab in the middle of both. I had high hopes for Roxy but she quickly fell into paranoid craziness way too soon. If there's any indication that God isn't invested in Survivor, her ousting from the Matsing tribe is all the proof I need.

Episode Grade: B
Episode MVP: Denise
Original Airdate: 09/26/2012

TV Review: Survivor Philippines 25x01: Go With the Game

(R to L: Malcolm, Angie, Russell, Roxanne, Zane, Denise, Mike, RC, Artis Lisa, Peter, Abi-Maria, Jeff, Katie, Penner, Dawson, Carter, Dana)

ML- You take the good
You take the bad
You take them all
And what do you have?
Survivor: Philippines!

The granddaddy of all reality is back, chocked full of good and bad in the 90-minute premiere that I wasn't excited for until I heard Jeff's prologue at the beginning of the episode. This was a summer of Big Brother submersion, and Survivor just wasn't on my radar, but I was pleasantly surprised with the premiere, specifically the cast. For this first week, let's look at the castaways, and see what past contestants they remind me of to get an idea of how they may fare:

TANDANG: (Yellow Tribe)
Mike Skupin: Mike is basically Mike Skupin 2.0 with a hint of Boo Bernis from Survivor Fiji- the guy who kept getting hurt over and over. He has definitely aged (is his speaking voice odd for anyone else? His mouth moves in a weird way), but I remember being such a huge fan of him while he was on Australia, so that "star" factor is still in play. His new "Go With the Game" mantra will probably be the title of his next book.

Abi-Maria: The Brazillian flirt is very Sugar from Heroes v. Villains with her sexuality and personality. Peter seemed interested, but to the audience it came off as very desperate. She's going to have to show some better understanding of the game to translate that sexuality into a Brenda or even Parvati ranking.

Artis: Pretty nonexistent but physically strong black guy. Ibrehem from Palau? Definitely not as ripped, though. We'll have to see more from him to get a better sense of his character.

RC: She's the Parvati of the group. Sexy (a few of my guy friends messaged me to tell me they wanted her to be their winner pick, based on her "strategies", I assume), but also a firm grasp on the game and a good rapport with the camera. I see her going far with the alliance she was quick to form.

Lisa: The celebrity factor of Ashley Massaro with the personality of Tracy from Fans v. Favorites. Isolating herself will not be good, but with Skupin having her back she may be able to outlast Artis.

Peter: Young, athletic and already noticing the hot girl, he reminds me of Alex from Amazon or Keith from South Pacific. He's in the alliance, good for him, but we didn't get any insight from him, so I doubt he'll be taking the money home.

TANDANG FORECAST: Strategically they're well off for now, physically they stand to be unstoppable if they do cut Lisa at their first TC. I'm thinking the winner could come from this tribe, but my actual winner pick isn't wearing yellow.

KALABAL (Red Tribe)

Jonathan Penner: Same old Penner we know and love. I like how humbled he is by getting to play the game again. Great TV and definitely a class act, he's one in a million and I'd love to see him take this game. Unfortunately, he's going to need that Immunity Idol he's so desperately looking for if he wants to survive in his tribe.

Dana: Petite and spunky, definite Courtney Yates from China/HvV vibes from her. She doesn't want to see Penner or any third timer for that matter take the crown.

Dawson: Her last name, not her first name, which puts her in the leagues of Cochran and Penner automatically! Kidding of course, but her ability to spot Jeff Kent makes her the Danni of the season, just as she spotted Gary Hogeboom in Guatemala. It'll take a lot of expert maneuvering to match Danni, though.

Carter: Didn't make a peep but was young and buff, basically the Samoa Brett of the episode.

Katie: Already forgot who she was. She doesn't like Penner's shadiness, so an unmemorable person from a Penner season is the infamous Mary of Micronesia.

Jeff Kent: The Gary Hogeboom/Jimmy Johnson/Brendan Synnott of the season. Hiding something big from the rest of the castaways is always a thorn in your side, and soon people will figure out he's not a motorcycle salesman like he claims. With his messed-up knee, too, I don't see him making endgame.

KALABAL FORECAST: The only thing they're unified on is taking out Jonathan. Jeff and Dana are a pair to watch, but once Dawson opens her mouth, who knows what will happen. I don't think the winner will come from here, either.

MATSING (Blue Tribe)

Russell Swan: Obviously, same old Russell. Wasn't the best leader of Galu, not the best leader of Matsing. His "reign" will definitely be short lived. Bossing people around will get old, and Malcolm proved he has the survival skills to provide for the tribe.

Angie: Former Miss Kentucky, former track star, definite threat with her alliance with Malcolm. She's like a personable Amanda, aside from the fact she's bad at puzzles, and I can see her making some big moves if given the opportunity. She wanted to switch things up already by day 3!

Zane: Poor, poor Zane. He was like Brandon Hantz with his creepiness and Chicken with his ability to self-destruct himself out of the game without even trying. His bold move was a stupid one, as was his making alliances with everyone. Production probably saw him as the next Hantz, but he holds the rare honor of actually being dumber than a Hantz. His 5-1 elimination was his own damn fault, despite Russell's best efforts to dig his own grave.

Roxanne: Really, really liked her. Obvious Francesca vibes as being an un-"crazy" black woman on this show, but her military background and physical prowess should hopefully send her further into the game like Alicia.

Malcolm: Ozzy but with strategy. Ladies are going to love him, guys are going to love him. Fan favorite material already I think. Could he win? Absolutely, he's got a keen eye. But he's not my pick. That honor goes to...

Denise: The sex therapist did a great job of summing everyone up with ease. She aligned with Malcolm, another strong player. To me, she is an older Sophie, eloquent and intelligent with a good grasp on the game and human interaction. She may not be the most obvious or conventional pick, and she didn't necessarily get the best edit, but I think she's absolutely the one to watch going forward, for me at least.

MATSING FORECAST: They need to cut Russell loose, stat. Getting rid of Zane was okay because he really did screw up his part of the challenge, but Russell is toxic in camp as well. The other four need to bond together as a cohesive unit to stand a chance against the other tribes, especially once the inevitable "dissolve" twist comes into effect.

Overall, I like the premiere because we got to get to know more people than the 5 that have been beaten over our heads in every CBS preview. The cast seems like a good crop for the most part, and the returning players don't have humongous egos like Ozzy, Coach, Rob or Russell Hantz.

Winenr Pick: Denise
Episode Grade: B+
Episode MVP: Malcolm
Original Airdate: 09/19/2012