Survivor: Cagayan Strategy Blog Episodes 8/9 - Pretty Hurts

via truedorktimes

-Mike Ladue

My, how the Beauties have fallen. The inexplicably well-adjusted tribe of mactors and mactresses pre-swap is down to just 2 players left, Jefra and Jeremiah, who've both received votes since the merge.

The funny thing is that, more than in any other season I can recall, original tribal lines have blurred and faded. Jeremiah is in with Tasha and Spencer, while Jefra is tight with the former Brawns. Beauty may have faded, but their former members have adapted to different scenarios.

Morgan was not adaptive. Morgan seemed to live her life a certain way, and chose to play Survivor with those same principals. Say what you will about Kass, at least she's willing to throw caution/strategy/reason to the wind and embrace her own Survivor persona. Morgan liked to be catered to, and in a game where literally EVERYONE else is running and digging and clawing for hidden idols, she stuck out like a perfectly manicured sore thumb.

There should be a metric, comparing and contrasting the high and low qualities of one's Social, Physical and Strategic game and how that factors into whether someone should be voted out or not in each stage of the game, relative to the other contestants' individual scores. That's way too much programming for even someone as ridiculously obsessed as I to create, but I'd imagine Morgan's data would read something like:

-Strategic: LOW (let's not kid ourselves)
Social: LOW (not talking to certain people, not pulling her weight around camp)
Physical: MEDIUM (she did pretty well in the challenges)

She wasn't playing a terrible game, but she had one fatal flaw: SURVIVOR PRO TIP #11: Camp life matters. It may not matter to the editors or the audience anymore, but once upon a time Richard Hatch got away with being naked and smarmy because he provided fish for the tribe. If Morgan had at least made an effort to provide for her tribe mates (yes, even those in the opposing alliance) she might have been spared because of her low attributes elsewhere. Then again, J'Tia dumped all the rice and survived, so who knows with this cast.

Props to Tony and crew for dumping Morgan instead of someone like Tasha or Jeremiah, who have actual drive in the game. It's easy (and smart, according to my very first Pro Tip) to go after the nice, smart, likable people, but they chose to do the audience a solid. Maybe that'll backfire if Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah manage to wiggle their way forward, but at least we get a more exciting endgame.

Case in point: Dat Idol hunt doe. (Yes, that now counts as a professional transition.) Spencer should have destroyed his clue the moment he absorbed all the information, because things could have gone horribly awry if Woo or #ChaosKass or one of their cohorts found the idol. Thankfully for everyone at home (literally every single person I talk to about Survivor is rooting for Spencer), the chess nerd found it. Not the "special" Tyler Perry idol, mind you, but the regular, play-before-votes-are-read idol.

With an Idol in his pocket and strong allies Tasha and Jeremiah by his side, Spencer is in a great position. That position was only bettered when Tony went full-Hantz and lured Woo into booting LJ. An anti-MVP must be handed out to the editors, though, because they worked so hard to deliver LJ his comeuppance that all the drama of whether he'd go home was sucked from the episode. It was painfully obvious the outcome would be Tony betraying his buddy, it took some of my enjoyment out of the move.

Was it a good move? I'd vote no. LJ had his chance to flip but instead left Tasha #STOODUP. By spreading lies throughout his team he's burning bridges with Woo and Trish, who will find out the truth from LJ and Sarah before Tony's final reckoning. (Speaking of Sarah, she got quite the reaction when Tony told everyone at Tribal he's a contractor. #CopsRUs will rear it's hashtag again).

He's following in the footsteps of Coach, Russell and Phillip: Be wild and crazy and fun. You may not win (and none of those men have), but odds are you'll be brought back over calm, strategic players like Brendan Synnott, Brett Clouser and Mike Chiesel (Remember them? No, because they were overshadowed by the crazies, just as LJ will be forgotten and Tony remembered). Think about it like this: if you're throwing a party that you want to be memorable and exciting, do you want to invite the introverts or the extraverts? Survivor is like a weekly party, and extroverts are regular VIPs.

But here's the real crazy thing- Tony might win this whole game. I look to the "Previously On…" segment that aired before Morgan's boot episode. They re-aired Spencer's "Nobody's gonna vote for Kass" comment, and cut to Tony taking that information in. So here's my 100% unspoiled prediction for how the endgame goes down:

-Tony makes a deal with Spencer, someone he obviously admires
-Tony cuts Spencer at F4, a common spot for Fan Favorites to end up
-Tony sits in F3 with Trish and Kass
-Despite Tony's reckless behavior, Kass' questionable strategy and Trish's "eff y'all" attitude barely squeak him out a win

Or, you know, Kass wins. Or Spencer wins. At this point it's one of those three.

Up For Grabs:

-Fallen Comrades: Morgan is a very pretty girl. LJ is a very handsome guy. They don't need any ego stroking from me!

-Tony gave himself his own Stealth R Us nickname: The Opportunist. Brace yourself for a Tony v Phillip season, y'all.

Have you ever been #StoodUp by LJ? Do you think Tony can pull off a win? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @miketvladue!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 7 Strategy Blog - Chaos is a Lawyer

via pandawhale.com

by Mike Ladue

Before I say anything...

I'll stop. I don't want to stop, but I will. Because those are all the .gifs I felt like finding. Because frankly I don't even want to analyze this episode. I want to watch it again. Even though I recorded it, I'm also shelling out to buy the episode on iTunes tomorrow. It deserves money. It deserves Emmys. It deserves to be put in a time capsule along with the Lucy episode where she and Ethel ate all the chocolates. It's the Red Wedding of Survivor episodes.

In hindsight, it all makes sense. Replace Kass with Cochran and you basically have Survivor: South Pacific's merge episode. A lawyer gets bullied and takes the game into his/her own hands, alienating everyone else on his/her old tribe.

The beauty of this episode was the editing. The editors get the MVP award, because they turned a pretty basic plot point - alienated Kass jumps ship - into a tour-de-force episode.

Actually, no, the MVP award of the week has a rightful owner:

TRISH.

I've given Trish a lot of flack here before, but boy howdy did homegirl play that right. She sensed the cattiness between Sarah and Kass. Tony and LJ dismissed her, but she stuck to her guns and slyly drew Kass in. Brava, Trish. Bask in your glory.

Did Kass make the right move? Not really. Tasha wasn't "choosing" Sarah over Kass, she was putting Sarah on a pedestal. She appeased the swing vote. Classic Survivor.

Kass didn't want to appease. She didn't want to be "bullied", aka, not be in charge of the vote. Voting Trish or Jefra is a quick and easy way to establish solid numbers. Kass was thinking practically, while Sarah thought big. Sarah wanted LJ, Tony or Woo out. Eliminate a strong guy, a merge challenge threat. Two very different schools of thought. I touched on this a few weeks ago, and will repeat here: the Jefra vote was the theoretical right move. Jefra has an easier path to endgame now than Tony, LJ or Woo. Those guys will turn on each other out of fear and bravado. Little ol' Jefra is in for some smooth sailing.

The old Aparri obviously agreed, as they targeted Jefra in what may be the craziest Tribal Council ever,  up there with Parvati and Malcolm's dual idol moves. Tony pulled out his Idol. Aparri scrambled to vote "the other one". Tony used the idol on LJ. LJ used his Idol on TONY. The first vote - JEFRA. The second vote - SARAH. Tied til the final vote -- SARAH. Solana goes wild. Aparri goes pale.

Spencer is quick to tell Kass she's not winning this game, but she's not so sure. At this point, I'd have to side with Spencer. Kass, for some odd reason, wanted to instigate the watershed vote that alienated half the remaining players, who will make up half the Jury. She could have let Sarah do that. Appease Sarah, limiting her options, and convince Spencer and Tasha to cut the cop loose a few weeks down the line. No blood on Kass' hands.

Kass wanted blood. She mentioned blood in one confessional, physical violence in another and murder in yet another. How did this woman pass the psych testing? I made a Game of Thrones reference before, but #ChaosKass, who literally used the words "usurp Sarah's throne", would fit right in with the duplicitous Lannisters, Greyjoys and Freys of Westeros. Or Petyr "Chaos is a Ladder" Baelish. (Sorry, Game of Thrones comes back Sunday and I'm hella excited.)

She made another interesting claim tonight - because Trish, Jefra and co. also saw Sarah as a threat, Kass was impressed by their smarts and wanted to join forces with them. NO, Kass! Align with the dumb people! Keep Morgan, Jeremiah and Sarah in the game as long as you can! Dumb + loyal is the best type of ally available.

But Kass made her choice, and made Survivor history in the process.

Up For Grabs -

-Fallen Comrades: Sarah got what was coming to her. Neither she nor Kass had the social dexterity to kowtow to the other's demands. I liked her before tonight, but that inherent need to call the shots is a fatal flaw if I ever saw one.

-Winner pick: I still want to pick Spencer, but mostly because of how quick he was to turn down the easy, overused portmanteau merged tribe name. Salarrion > Salarri. He's astute, but now, once again, against the ropes.

-Apparently this "new idol" was dreamed up by Tyler Perry (yes, the Tyler Perry), who told Jeff Probst the game could use an idol playable after the votes were read. So basically, that super unfair idol from Panama/Cook Islands. I hope next season we get the Jeff Foxworthy Presents: Medallion of Power 2: The Desolation of Superfan's Respect for the Show.

-While introducing the Immunity Necklace, Probst said "This is what you seek now" instead of his perennial "this is what you covet." Has coveting suddenly become too taboo for the show?

-Trish seems like an anxiety-inducing pilates instructor. Is that how pilates works? I don't know a single thing about pilates.

-Someone called Woo "Wooie", so now I'm imagining an F/X sitcom starring Woo with a catchy theme song that goes something like "Wooie Wooie Wooie Wooieeeeee…"

-Woo wore watershoes and won. Hmm.

-Idea: Survivor: 29 - Cobs vs. Robbers. Cops is self-explanatory. Robbers can either be 1. Felons, which, eh. 2. Former contestants named Rob, which, probably or 3. Former contestants who have been "robbed" in the game, like Silas/Paschal/Willard/Jenny/Michelle/Aaron/Cirie/Katie.

-Can you name a more exciting Survivor episode? Did Kass make the right move? Hit up the comments or follow @miketvladue on Twitter to join the conversation!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 6 Strategy Blog: Tony Baloney

via Zap2It.com

by Mike Ladue

Back before Showtime's CIA drama Homeland became a colossal mess, Mandy Patinkin's character gave Claire Danes' character some blunt feedback: "You're the smartest and the dumbest f*cking person I've ever met." This is relevant because A: Showtime is part of CBS, which airs Survivor, and B: that's the same reaction I had to Tony's gameplay tonight.

His plot to create paranoia around Jeremiah by giving him the Solana idol clue was just crazy enough to work, as Jeremiah was just stupid enough not to catch on, and everyone else was just smart enough to anticipate more twists in the game. Tony may have won the battle in pinning a target, but with Jeremiah still in the game, he's losing the war of finishing his hits.

Another battle Tony won: the Immunity challenge, where he was integral in solving the final puzzle that spared Solana from another Tribal. Another war lost: Probably the whole game. By chanting "Final Five! Final Five!" he alienated Sarah and gave the disjointed Aparri castaways more reason to unify. And who's their biggest threat? Tony.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #10: Win with grace. Remember Gervase last season, hooting and hollering at the Tadhana tribe after an Immunity win? It directly lead to his niece, Marissa, getting the axe. Remember when Shii-Ann, the last Mogo Mogo member standing, won the bucket endurance challenge in All-Stars and exploded with joy? Alicia was quick to point out the Shii Devil still had to return back to camp with them, and only earned herself 3 days of safety. Excessive celebration isn't allowed in the NFL, and it shouldn't be allowed in Survivor.

The Solana tribe seems solid enough to stick together come the merge, though LJ and Jefra both expressed unease about Tony's bull-in-a-China-shop strategy. As long as he's taking all the hits making moves against others, the beauties have his back. That fair-weathered loyalty usually isn't the stuff of endgame alliances though. If he wants to survive to Final Five, Tony's gonna need that idol in his pocket -- and maybe a couple more.

Upon losing the IC, Aparri came to a fork in the road: Keep Alexis or keep Jeremiah. Both had strong ties to the Beauties that stayed on Solana. Jeremiah maybe had an idol clue and definitely had a history of breaking his word. Alexis had a mouth bigger than her brain.

They stuck with Jeremiah, which is an interesting choice. Had he played an idol, they would have flushed it out and still sent Alexis home. Should the merge come -- which it will next week-- he's a physical threat that will be targeted long before Alexis. In truth, had Alexis made the merge and Aparri gained an advantage, Alexis would have easily slid to final five and possibly to the FTC.

I worry, though, about the tact shown by Spencer, Tasha, Kass, Morgan and Sarah while picking a side. They clearly wanted to blindside Alexis, but also made it known that Jeremiah is persona non grata within the alliance. His word is garbage, he's shifty with his idol clue… If I were Jeremiah, I'd flip back to LJ and Jefra, who'd gladly take a strong guy for a few weeks to out-play Spencer and Sarah in challenges. Alexis might have remained loyal if the brains kept deluding her of her position within the alliance.

They were damned either way, and though Jeremiah is a serious wild card come the merge, at least he's not as unpredictable as Tony.

Up for Grabs

-Episode MVP: It's gotta be Tony, I guess. Though the moves he made will probably screw up his game in later episodes, the battles he fought tonight worked out. What's the line from Game of Thrones? "Winning three battles does not make you King?" Enjoy it while it lasts.

-Fallen Comrades #1: Nobody has quit the game quite like Lindsey. Osten was physically exhausted, Sue was, infamously, violated/humiliated/dehumanized/emotionally spent, Jenna was missing her ailing mother, Janu was over it, FairPlay was apparently in withdrawals, Kathy, Na'Onka, Purple Kelly and Dana couldn't handle the elements, and Colton, in the two times he played, couldn't handle anything. Lindsey did what very few reality show contestants do in the throes of the game: she realized her actions have real-world consequences, and it's more important to be a role model to her daughter than "that dreads girl who punched Trish right in her horse mouth." She chose brains over brawn, and I've gotta commend her for that. Trish can take her "Shame on You, Lindsie" banner and shove it. (Did it remind anyone else of this classic banner?)

-Fallen Comrades #2: Alexis seems like a sweetheart who just isn't very good at Survivor. For a fan to go out there and get blindsided must be devastating.

-Of course Spencer would enact the right strategy at the Reward Challenge - toss your buddha high up into the air, then attack the opponent's before your's lands. He's a smart kid!

-The fine folks at Vulture did a March Madness bracket of Greatest Reality TV Seasons, and Survivor: Borneo was in contention! Head over there to see how S1 fared, but also check out this list of their proposed 10 Best Strategic Moves in Survivor history. For those interested, here are the top 10 that came to my mind, in chronological order:

-The Tagi alliance votes out Gretchen, Borneo
-Rich steps down during the Final Immunity Challenge, Borneo
-"You Take Care of Her, I'll Take Care of You", All-Stars
-Chris goads Twila into getting angry at FTC, Vanuatu
-Cirie targets the Casaya pawns, Panama: Exile Island
-The Edgardo blindside, Fiji
-The Reichenbach Fall, Micronesia
-Russell muscling his Foa Foa foursome to the endgame, Samoa
-Parvati's HII double-down, Heroes vs. Villains
-Boston Rob's buddy rules, Redemption Island

-Survivor: Cagayan is shaping up to be one of the series' better installments, in large part due to the editors' generosity of screen time. Each of the 11 remaining contestants has some degree of depth and characterization, which is rare in an age where most seasons focus heavily on returning players or godlike Russell/Malcolm figures. With the merge approaching next week, I've decided to go contestant-by-contestant and grade their pre-game strategy thus far. This has no reflection on their chances at winning, just at how they've navigated the pre-merge portion of the game.

Spencer A-
Kass B+
Tasha B+
Sarah B
Morgan B
Jeremiah C
Jefra B-
LJ A-
Woo B-
Tony C+
Trish A+

Just kidding, Trish gets a C-.

Who would you have voted out, Alexis or Jeremiah? Do you think Tony can carry his Solana crew to the Final Five? Write your comments in the sand below or contact me on Twitter: @MikeTVLadue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 4 Strategy Blog - No-Brainer

via blog.sfgate.com

By Mike Ladue

Last week, I rambled on about how loyalty is an important factor when voting at Tribal Council. It's not the only factor, however, as Loyalty + Physical Prowess > Loyalty + Choking In Every Challenge Ever.

On the Beauty tribe, things looked bleak for Morgan. Being down by 3+ in numbers is never a good position to be in, and few rarely recover. Those that do -- Sandra in HvV, Danni in Guatemala -- often go the distance. But Morgan showed some promise, taking a page from Tony and dropping some white lies. Did Jeremiah want LJ out that badly? That's not how I remember it, but the story was believable enough (and honestly, Morgan was defeated enough) for the target to stick. All of a sudden, Jeremiah's vote looks like a bad decision. TOLDJA!

The Beauty tribe dominated both challenges, the first being one of the all-time best sources of physical humor the show can deliver. Look back at All-Stars' puzzle bloodbath, or even Colby drenching Jerri with water in Australia. This season's didn't disappoint, as apparently John Kirhoffer and the challenge crew decided to build all the protruding rails at crotch height. Poor LJ and Spencer. Were I in their shoes, I'd hold the bag in front of my waist to protect it from sharp, pointy hazards.

The second was tailor-made for the Brawns, who couldn't manage to throw the challenge against the pitiful Brains. (Flashbacks to Matty single-handedly preventing the pole-balancing challenge from being thrown in Gabon!) Cliff, who's played more NBA games than Michael Jordan, only narrowly managed to out-shoot Spencer. Maybe it was Jeff's incessant coaching from the sidelines that distracted him? The man has hosted Rock & Roll Jeopardy and Survivor; ESPN is the obvious next step in his Trivial Pursuit-like journey through television. Or maybe it was how the challenge was subliminal plugging for CBS' March Madness tourney? Regardless, Cliff should be even more ashamed than Spencer for missing those shots.

Speaking of ashamed… Sarah. Sarah should be ashamed. She's running around like a chicken with her head cut off (or twisted off, in the case of the Beauty tribe. Also, how ridiculous was the whole egg debacle? So ridiculous). She's fallen right into Tony's trap and is gunning for Cliff/Lindsay. She turned to Woo, an established Cliff-Hanger(™), and made some pretty convincing arguments towards getting him out. All of these, however, conflict with my pro-tips.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #5: Don't throw the challenge. You will lose momentum and you will lose sleep and you will lose numbers and you will lose the game. Unless you're Richard Hatch and you've established an endgame where the only way you win a million dollars is if you drop out of the final challenge, give it your all. Cliff won't go on an Immunity run post-merge and you can easily blindside him then.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #6: Celebrity = Goat. Remember how I suggested you find the most likable person on the island and quickly dispose of him/her? This rule trumps that one. There is NO WAY a celebrity will defeat a single mom or a college student in a jury situation. Cliff has (or had and lost) millions of dollars, and no matter how well he plays, he's not getting another big check. Lisa Whelchel played strong enough to garner at least a few votes in Philippines, but the fact she was a former child star (and, worse, lied about it) nullified any jury traction. You've gotta be a real scumbag to lose a jury vote to a celeb -- in which case, there's no way you'd ever win Survivor.

But it looks like Woo's on board… I think? Watching him scuffle away from Sarah, shouting "WE'RE GOOD!", when Tony approached leads me to believe he's a nervous player. Nervous players are easily swayed. Once Cliff approaches Woo with another deal, Woo's probably jumping back in the (sinking) canoe with him.

So far, Tony's plan is working. Sarah is off his trail and targeting Cliff. Woo is apparently intimidated by his presence. His house of cards is immaculately constructed. By swearing on his badge and talking about "dragging dreams through the mud" he's shown shades of Jonny Fairplay and Tyson, in addition to his already Hantz-ian behavior. But, to me, it all feels so forced, so unnatural, so… pathetic? Tony is a good cop trying to play bad cop. I'm not buying it.

Which brings us to the Brains, in last again thanks to J'Tia. Not since Crystal Cox has a contestant been so spectacularly bad at challenges. Sure, swimming is hard. Puzzles are hard. But placing a flag on a platform and lifting a rope is NOT hard, compared to what Spencer's crotch went through. (For all my Archer fans, this is where you yell "Phrasing!')

The meta commentary from Spencer and Kass at tribal was great. The audience is treated (or sometimes nauseated) by edits handed down from the production gods that foreshadow certain player's worth. We can surmise, for instance, come finale night Jeff won't be handing a million-dollar check to Lindsay. While on the island, in the moment, Lindsay is just as viable a contender as anybody else. How can you possibly predict who's going to help your game?

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #7: Know Your Survivor History. Kass and Tasha racked their brains over whether a merge or tribe swap was coming. The answer, to Survivor super fans, is an obvious yes. There have only been two other seasons in which 18 players were divided among 3 tribes, All Stars and Philippines, and in both of those seasons, tribes were shuffled after 4 eliminations. With this being the 4th Tribal of the season, odds are Kass and Tasha would soon be playing with new blood -- and as the scenes for next week show us, this is exactly the case.

That doesn't automatically mean keep the loyal J'Tia and cut the alienated Spencer. The shuffles in question weren't your run of the mill tribe swaps -- in each instance, the last-place tribe in a reward challenge would be absorbed into the other tribes. If Kass, Tasha and their third amigo lost the challenge, two of them go to Team Beauty (or whatever the name we actually have to learn now), one to team Brawn, to even things out 7-7. In order to stay intact, they need to win. To win, frankly, they need Spencer.

Spencer gets MVP this week for not only putting on a good show at the Immunity challenge, but also convincing Kass and Tasha he's not jumping ship the first chance he gets. And I believe him! He doesn't seem live a spiteful guy, especially because the ladies on the tribe have shown him respect. When Cochran flipped on his Savaii tribe in South Pacific, it was because he'd been mercilessly bullied. Shambo in Samoa, too. I guess that's SURVIVOR PRO TIP #8: Don't Be A Bully. 

In my opinion, the Brains made the right choice. Best case scenario, Spencer seems loyal enough and will probably be more of an asset in socializing and swaying stragglers than J'Tia. Worst case, Spencer is picked off first due to his strength, buying Kass & Tasha 3 more days.

Up For Grabs (Formerly Random Thoughts):

-Episode MVP: Spencer.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, for at least one more week, because of the whole "two cops in the finals" runner. I don't think it's Tony. It's not Lindsay, Cliff, Woo, Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra or Trish. That leaves us with Tasha, Kass, Spencer and Morgan still in the running.

-Historically, cops suck at Survivor. The average placement of acting/former police officers is 14.25 (counting Debb, Maralyn, Jessie, Ken, Amy, Cristina, Betsy and Mark/Papa Bear. Wow, lots of lady cops!)

-Fallen Comrades: You hung in there for as long as you could, girl, and I applaud you for that. Kass and Tasha nearly kept you! You nearly made the tribe swap! There's no telling how far you could have inched along, you poor little pawn. At least you're a winner outside of the game.

-Having two challenges per week is good for most fans of the show, bad for me and the blog, but I obviously still found A LOT to say.

-Did the Brains make the right move? What'll happen in the upcoming tribe swap? And where do chickens come from?? Share your thoughts in the comments or with me on Twitter, @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 3 Strategy Blog - Dot Dot Dot Hmmph

via tfanatic.com

By: Mike Ladue

Making it to the endgame of Survivor is extremely difficult without trust. To quote the idiot college kid from Good Will Hunting (one of my favorite films), "trust is life", which applies exponentially more on the island than in the real world. More so than fire, at least in the pre-merge rounds, trust is what keeps you alive.

We saw it with both David and Garrett last week. Both made moves that alienated them from the rest of their tribes, painting them as untrustworthy and sealing their fates. Sure, J'Tia destroyed all the rice, but everybody kinda expected that of her (see: Kass, Tasha and Garrett's chat in the water). Nobody knew where Garrett's head would be, thus they sent it rolling.

Trust was central to this week's episode, whether the main players in question (Jeremiah for the Beauty tribe and Sarah for the Brawns) realized it or not. In Jeremiah's case, he did. Literally everybody in the tribe believed Jeremiah was acting in his or her best interest.

That's an interesting position to be in. I'm surprised swing votes aren't targeted more often (the best, and only, example I can currently think of is Dolly in Vanuatu, which was so early in the game it hardly mattered). Of course had Jefra, Alexis or LJ spilled the beans they'd be voting for Jeremiah, they'd make the choice for him and he'd side with the outsiders, and vice-versa. The risk is too high.

So did Jeremiah make the right move? Let's look at his options. By voting out Brice, he solidifies himself in a four-person alliance with LJ/Alexis/Jefra, with Morgan once again the odd girl out. Should the Beauty tribe lose again, Morgan's an easy target -- low physical asset, low social prowess, low camp contribution. But smart players should always be thinking two moves ahead, and it's here that Jeremiah may have stumbled.

Jefra found out Jeremiah had been playing both sides, a fact that could seriously come back to bite him. Once Morgan's gone, the Beauties will be that much closer to a merge, where physical strength shifts from favorable to threatening. Jeremiah, then, becomes the outsider, the one who "played both sides" in a guilty by association scenario, the one everyone likes, and thus must be ousted.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #4: Find the most likable person and vote him/her off. This is probably the most controversial Survivor advice there is. But if everybody likes someone, regardless of any other factor, they're the biggest threat to your game. If they make it to the end, they win. 9 times out of 10 juries disregard strategy and vote emotionally. Fabio was a goofy, fun-loving guy whose late Immunity run earned him a win. So was JT. And Bob. Jeremiah could fit that criteria, if given the chance to make it that far. (This is controversial because going against an obvious favorite might draw ire from production. If you're going to oust the season's biggest hero, be prepared to assume the rule of the season's biggest villain).

Anyways, had Jeremiah stuck with Morgan and Brice and eliminated Alexis, he'd be in a majority alliance stacked against LJ and Jefra. As an audience, we know LJ found the Hidden Immunity Idol, and could use it as swift payback against Jeremiah for betraying the foursome. Had he not found the idol, moving forward with 2 stragglers is twice as dangerous as with one. Another loss would probably seal Jefra's fate. Whoever survived would itch to join Brains / Brawn and better their situation (a la Shambo). It's worth noting that misfit alliances tend to crumble (a la Timbira, Fang and nearly Casaya). Sticking with who he fits with may be the simplest, most natural choice.

Unfortunatlely, Jeremiah is pretty much damned either way. In this day and age, being a young, fit, likable male is the worst position for a Survivor contestant. After 20+ seasons of dominance, the tide has turned. This is the first time the first three contestants voted off were all male. Being the swing means you're in the middle, and unless you're Sandra Diaz-Twine, it's extremely difficult to hold that position to the endgame.

Brice, our narrator from last week, established an outcast bond with Morgan and a southern bond with Jeremiah. Put another way, he made 40% of all the right moves. Alexis may not have reached out and takes strategy with him, but he obviously hadn't tried connecting with her, either. Social butterfly he was not, as the Survivor greats are those who get on everybody's good side. Look at Kim Spradlin, Tom Westman, Aras Baskauskas, Yul Kwon, or J.T. Thomas. Instead, his Tribal confrontation with her was awkward, as if he knew he'd lost the war. I'll miss his candor at Tribal and sassiness in confessionals. But he failed to earn the trust of his tribe's majority, so there's no excuse to make for his early boot.

Trust comes into play at the Brawn tribe as well. Tony confided his cop identity in Sarah, who claimed to have "Cop-dar", from the makers of Gaydar. She took this small victory and ran with it, not realizing he packaged several small lies with his larger truth. His story about Cliff and Lindsay plotting against her? Total bull. Props to Tony for stirring the pot within an otherwise fully-functioning tribe, at least challenge-wise.

But for some reason, the show seems less inclined to give Tony his credit. Sure, he's gotten personalized hashtags like "#CopsRUs" (aka the worst alliance name ever. Seriously. If I ever make it on the show, I'm teaming up with other tall gangly men to form the Daddy Long Leg Brigade, Parvati/Amanda/Cirie/Natalie be damned). The editing, specifically the music cues, paint a different picture.

Maybe it's just me, but Sarah comes off as way more likable than Tony. Tony gets Russell-like confessionals, without the Russell-like music cues, promos, or production favor. He's more reminiscent of Gabon's Ace than Samoa's Russell. He's downright dunce-like. Then again, Sarah comes off as Palau's Stephenie: strong, likable (lovable?) woman who gets dealt a bad hand.

I see the Tony/Sarah story going one of three ways:

1. Sarah catches Tony in his lies and blindsides him (possibly as early as next week, as Sarah targets a "him" to Woo. Is she naive enough to go after Cliff directly to his ally?)

2. Tony blindsides Sarah, burning that bridge come jury time (a la Chris and Julie in Vanuatu)

or, least likely,

3. Sarah and Tony reach the finals together.

Last week I narrowed the winner pick down between Sarah and Kass. Of the two, Sarah is the one I'd feel comfortable still backing, and this pick to win a Final Tribal over Tony. Kass seemed out of touch with Tasha, the new HBIC of the Brains tribe. I guess it all comes down to who Tasha feels she can trust more deeply.

Random Thoughts:

-MVP: LJ, for finding the HII and keeping his alliance intact through Tribal.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, with Tasha surpassing Kass for second place. Spencer still seems like a future All-Star, not a current season winner.

-Fallen Comrades: Brice just didn't click. Socially, he seemed too aggressive to gel with the laid-back pretty boys and girls. It's a fine line between missing out and over-strategization, and Brice erred too far towards the latter. I'm sure he'll be hilarious on Twitter!

-The vertical maze was DOPE, and designed by a dream-teamer, apparently.

-Props to the Brains for practicing the challenge. Did it help? Not really, as they made up time on the puzzle. But they're definitely using their knowledge of the game's ins and outs to their advantage.

-Splitting votes is always so risky, and we've seen it go wrong so many other times, I partly was disappointed for it to work so well against Brice tonight. Alexis displayed a firm grasp of the game's rules, though. You go girl!

-I made a few mentions to music cues this week, so it's worth mentioning the departure of Russ Landau, Survivor's resident composer since the very first season. From what I've gathered, production felt they'd amassed enough music over the past 27 cycles to fill the silences. Obviously that didn't work as planned, since we were treated to unoriginal music during the Brains tribe's water-tossing segment. Landau's loss is immeasurable to the Survivor brand and one I'm already mourning greatly.

-Did Jeremiah make the right move? Are you down with Cops-R-Us? Share your opinions in the comments, or with me personally on Twitter: @miketvladue.

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 1&2 Recap - How Do You Solve A Problem Like J'Tia?

via survivorfandom.com

By: Mike Ladue

Survivor players come in all shapes in sizes, and rarely can you predict on Day 1 who will be left standing on Day 39. Not only is there a social game to be played, there’s a television show going on, with twists and turns designed to keep audiences tuned in and contestants doing stupid things.

That being said, if you said J’Tia would survive through those TWO Tribal Councils, on a tribe of people whose collective IQ is 130, I’d laugh in your face. J’Tia was responsible for the awful shelter. J’Tia was the reason the tribes lost not one but TWO Immunity challenges. J’Tia is the reason Luzon is going riceless for the foreseeable future.

Dividing the three tribes into Brain / Brawn / Beauty was an inspired decision by production. Whenever Survivor can “settle a question” like men vs. women, fan vs. favorite, hero vs. villain, or white vs. black vs. asian vs. Hispanic, the results are usually Survivor gold. (Or at least they are the first time; for every Amazon and Micronesia, there’s a One World and Caramoan.)

The Brawn tribe is aggressive, both in challenges and in camp. Sarah literally interrogates Tony, a fellow police officer posing as a construction worker, while Lindsay (a Flicka Flame / Courtney Marit hybrid) and Trish (Sherri 2.0?) get in a fight over… what, exactly? Trish just antagonizes Lindsay? Between that and the intro shot/accompanying sound effect of Trish getting whacked by a branch, Trish is an early contender for a Final Tribal zero-vote getter.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #1: Be yourself. Tony lying about his profession will do him no favors, mostly because he’s going to get so unbelievably bored over 39 days (or however long he survives, probably far fewer) that the truth will force its way out. Cliff was honest about his past and subsequently earned a cult-like following, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Boston Rob. Tony got off on the wrong foot with Sarah, and after injuring his other in the challenge, he’ll soon be left without a leg to stand on. (Yay for pedal/crural puns!)

The Beauty tribe is full of solipsistic, silicon-stuffed, surprisingly strategic … Survivors. Brice has emerged as our narrator, eloquently sizing up his fellow contestants with flair. After pouncing on Morgan (does she resemble a Kardashian to anyone else?), the only other outcast in the tribe, he set his sights on Jeremiah, noting, “country folk have to stick together.” In fact, three of our most beautimous contestants -- Brice, Jeremiah and Jefra – hail from Southern states. This is CBS subliminally pandering to their large Southern audience by calling them the most attractive in the country! You can’t fool me, Moonves!

It’s also the only tribe where the hidden immunity idol went unfound. Apparently this season will feature four idols: one at each original camp and one, available post-merge, which can be used after the votes are read like the Deitz/Kwon idols of yore. Yes, there are too many idols. No, I don’t need to explain why. But I will explain…

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #2: Idol > Food. As hazardous as Hidden Immunity Idols are to the game’s theory, never, ever pass up the opportunity to get your hands on one. From a game standpoint, it gives you an extra buffer of protection – especially if you can find it before your tribemates arrive, as Garrett did. From a production standpoint, having an idol forces you into the Survivor narrative. Will you play it? Will you give it up? Will you be blindsided? It may put a target on your back, but it’ll plant you deeper in the audience’s consciousness, which only increased your chances at Fan Favorite and All-Stars perks.

Garrett chose the idol over food. He found said idol. He deflected idol panic onto David. He beasted in those challenges. And yet, ironically, he left the game without an idol to his name, kicked from a tribe with 0 bags of rice.

What went wrong?

Just about everything. David made the first mistake in alienating Garrett at the (Tocantins-reminiscent) insta-faux-vote. While Sarah’s vote for Trish and LJ’s vote for Morgan made common sense, David expelled Garrett, the physically fit pro poker player, leaving him on a tribe with three not particularly athletic young women and a twentysomething chess wizard.

David voted as such because he was focused on the last 2/3 of the game, at which point physical players become threats. For the life of me, I can’t process how this is a good move for David. To get to those last 2/3 of the game, you must make it through the opening 1/3. He weakens his tribe by eliminating a tall, buff guy, who is an asset in winning physical challenges, which your tribe will face early and often. 

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #3: It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Survivor is a test of your endurance, not just of the elements, or of each other, but of yourself. David has nobody to blame for his dumb move alienating Garrett than himself. Garrett expressed extreme boredom that led to over-strategization and paranoia (the Colton effect). Tasha lashed out when stifled, rather than biding her time. J’Tia nearly pushed Kass past the breaking point when she dumped all the rice in the fire. Even Spencer (whom reminds me of myself, and I’m pissed his inclusion drastically limits the chances I’ll ever get on) was quick to call out his ally Garrett’s flakiness at Tribal. Kass has proven to be the most calm, cool and collected of the bunch, not even letting J’Tia’s rash decisions sway her inner compass.

Whether that compass is aligned correctly is another story. Kass avenged fallen friend David and blindsided Garrett, leaving her on a tribe with tight allies Tasha and J’Tia and Spencer, adrift. This isn’t a great position for her, given J’Tia’s observable challenge/camp/social prowess.

Would the alternative have been better? Well, yes, a bit. A strong Garrett/Spencer/Kass alliance had Tasha as a buffer should Luzon lose yet another Immunity challenge. If the three managed to make the latter two-thirds of the game, Garrett would receive the target David had predicted. If they managed to make the finals, could you imagine Garrett pleading his case to a jury? He could barely keep his thoughts straight at a regular Tribal. She’d destroy him in jury votes.

But J’Tia survives, against all odds. She’s the kind of person who, in a regular, 8 vs. 8 season, probably would have been voted out. She’s your average Survivor pawn, and a group of average players would strike her down early for a minimal advantage. On a tribe of chess champions targeting bishops, knights, and castles, she floats by. If that carries her to the last 2/3, those Beautys/Brawnys better watch out. When the pawn finally inches all the way across the board, it can become as powerful as a Queen.

Random Thoughts:

-Welcome, new readers! I haven't covered Survivor since Philippines but am excited to follow this cast through what seems to be a wild season. I use "I" a lot, which is totally not kosher for television criticism, but Survivor is so much more than TV. I may not offer professionalism, but I've got pretensions, obscure references to past seasons (which I'll try to limit within parentheses, like these!) and "Pro-tips", or things I'd advise future contestants to do, having spent the last 14ish years of my life watching this silliness.

-I don't like explaining challenges. Jeff spends enough time doing that in the episode. I'll talk about strategy, usually latching onto an episode's integral character and judging his/her decisions, based on theoretical alternative options and past outcomes. 

-Grading these episodes feels wrong for some reason, so I'm going to stop. 

-Overall, I'm psyched for season 28. So many fresh characters! So many questionable choices! 

-Team #TrueDetectiveS2 (Sarah and Tony) > Team Southern Belles > Team WooCliff

-Has a three-tribe breakdown ever been successful? It's still early, I guess, but Saboga in All-Stars and Matsing in Philippines both royally sucked pre-merge a la Luzon.

-Speaking of Luzon, I don't know the other tribe names yet and refuse to look them up. I think one was Solana, which is too close to One World's Salani tribe for me to sleep soundly tonight. 

-Fallen Comrades: David needed to get out of his head and spend some time on the island with his fellow castaways. And THAT's why you don't wear a blazer on Survivor! Garrett studied past episodes for hundreds of hours, a level of dedication I must commend. But dude, didn't you see my Pro Tips??

-Episode(s) MVP: Sarah, for her quick read of Tony and challenge dominance. 

-Winner Pick: Not Trish.

OK, fine. I’m torn between Kass and Sarah. Kass reminds me of Denise Stapley, who won Philippines despite (or because of) attending every tribal council. Kass is analytical yet willing to make big moves. We saw David's blindside through her eyes. Garrett's blindside could have been framed as a massive blunder for Kass, but we got some rationalization. This couldn't have been a game-ending move, at least not yet. Sarah got her “I should be on [the Brains] tribe!” quote CC’d, a sign she’s a triple-threat. I’ll leave them at neck and neck until next week.

-As always, hit up the comments with your thoughts, theories and strategic insight. For more TV musings, follow me on Twitter at @miketvladue.