Survivor: Cagayan Strategy Blog Episodes 8/9 - Pretty Hurts

via truedorktimes

-Mike Ladue

My, how the Beauties have fallen. The inexplicably well-adjusted tribe of mactors and mactresses pre-swap is down to just 2 players left, Jefra and Jeremiah, who've both received votes since the merge.

The funny thing is that, more than in any other season I can recall, original tribal lines have blurred and faded. Jeremiah is in with Tasha and Spencer, while Jefra is tight with the former Brawns. Beauty may have faded, but their former members have adapted to different scenarios.

Morgan was not adaptive. Morgan seemed to live her life a certain way, and chose to play Survivor with those same principals. Say what you will about Kass, at least she's willing to throw caution/strategy/reason to the wind and embrace her own Survivor persona. Morgan liked to be catered to, and in a game where literally EVERYONE else is running and digging and clawing for hidden idols, she stuck out like a perfectly manicured sore thumb.

There should be a metric, comparing and contrasting the high and low qualities of one's Social, Physical and Strategic game and how that factors into whether someone should be voted out or not in each stage of the game, relative to the other contestants' individual scores. That's way too much programming for even someone as ridiculously obsessed as I to create, but I'd imagine Morgan's data would read something like:

-Strategic: LOW (let's not kid ourselves)
Social: LOW (not talking to certain people, not pulling her weight around camp)
Physical: MEDIUM (she did pretty well in the challenges)

She wasn't playing a terrible game, but she had one fatal flaw: SURVIVOR PRO TIP #11: Camp life matters. It may not matter to the editors or the audience anymore, but once upon a time Richard Hatch got away with being naked and smarmy because he provided fish for the tribe. If Morgan had at least made an effort to provide for her tribe mates (yes, even those in the opposing alliance) she might have been spared because of her low attributes elsewhere. Then again, J'Tia dumped all the rice and survived, so who knows with this cast.

Props to Tony and crew for dumping Morgan instead of someone like Tasha or Jeremiah, who have actual drive in the game. It's easy (and smart, according to my very first Pro Tip) to go after the nice, smart, likable people, but they chose to do the audience a solid. Maybe that'll backfire if Spencer/Tasha/Jeremiah manage to wiggle their way forward, but at least we get a more exciting endgame.

Case in point: Dat Idol hunt doe. (Yes, that now counts as a professional transition.) Spencer should have destroyed his clue the moment he absorbed all the information, because things could have gone horribly awry if Woo or #ChaosKass or one of their cohorts found the idol. Thankfully for everyone at home (literally every single person I talk to about Survivor is rooting for Spencer), the chess nerd found it. Not the "special" Tyler Perry idol, mind you, but the regular, play-before-votes-are-read idol.

With an Idol in his pocket and strong allies Tasha and Jeremiah by his side, Spencer is in a great position. That position was only bettered when Tony went full-Hantz and lured Woo into booting LJ. An anti-MVP must be handed out to the editors, though, because they worked so hard to deliver LJ his comeuppance that all the drama of whether he'd go home was sucked from the episode. It was painfully obvious the outcome would be Tony betraying his buddy, it took some of my enjoyment out of the move.

Was it a good move? I'd vote no. LJ had his chance to flip but instead left Tasha #STOODUP. By spreading lies throughout his team he's burning bridges with Woo and Trish, who will find out the truth from LJ and Sarah before Tony's final reckoning. (Speaking of Sarah, she got quite the reaction when Tony told everyone at Tribal he's a contractor. #CopsRUs will rear it's hashtag again).

He's following in the footsteps of Coach, Russell and Phillip: Be wild and crazy and fun. You may not win (and none of those men have), but odds are you'll be brought back over calm, strategic players like Brendan Synnott, Brett Clouser and Mike Chiesel (Remember them? No, because they were overshadowed by the crazies, just as LJ will be forgotten and Tony remembered). Think about it like this: if you're throwing a party that you want to be memorable and exciting, do you want to invite the introverts or the extraverts? Survivor is like a weekly party, and extroverts are regular VIPs.

But here's the real crazy thing- Tony might win this whole game. I look to the "Previously On…" segment that aired before Morgan's boot episode. They re-aired Spencer's "Nobody's gonna vote for Kass" comment, and cut to Tony taking that information in. So here's my 100% unspoiled prediction for how the endgame goes down:

-Tony makes a deal with Spencer, someone he obviously admires
-Tony cuts Spencer at F4, a common spot for Fan Favorites to end up
-Tony sits in F3 with Trish and Kass
-Despite Tony's reckless behavior, Kass' questionable strategy and Trish's "eff y'all" attitude barely squeak him out a win

Or, you know, Kass wins. Or Spencer wins. At this point it's one of those three.

Up For Grabs:

-Fallen Comrades: Morgan is a very pretty girl. LJ is a very handsome guy. They don't need any ego stroking from me!

-Tony gave himself his own Stealth R Us nickname: The Opportunist. Brace yourself for a Tony v Phillip season, y'all.

Have you ever been #StoodUp by LJ? Do you think Tony can pull off a win? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @miketvladue!

Survivor: Cagayan Episode 4 Strategy Blog - No-Brainer

via blog.sfgate.com

By Mike Ladue

Last week, I rambled on about how loyalty is an important factor when voting at Tribal Council. It's not the only factor, however, as Loyalty + Physical Prowess > Loyalty + Choking In Every Challenge Ever.

On the Beauty tribe, things looked bleak for Morgan. Being down by 3+ in numbers is never a good position to be in, and few rarely recover. Those that do -- Sandra in HvV, Danni in Guatemala -- often go the distance. But Morgan showed some promise, taking a page from Tony and dropping some white lies. Did Jeremiah want LJ out that badly? That's not how I remember it, but the story was believable enough (and honestly, Morgan was defeated enough) for the target to stick. All of a sudden, Jeremiah's vote looks like a bad decision. TOLDJA!

The Beauty tribe dominated both challenges, the first being one of the all-time best sources of physical humor the show can deliver. Look back at All-Stars' puzzle bloodbath, or even Colby drenching Jerri with water in Australia. This season's didn't disappoint, as apparently John Kirhoffer and the challenge crew decided to build all the protruding rails at crotch height. Poor LJ and Spencer. Were I in their shoes, I'd hold the bag in front of my waist to protect it from sharp, pointy hazards.

The second was tailor-made for the Brawns, who couldn't manage to throw the challenge against the pitiful Brains. (Flashbacks to Matty single-handedly preventing the pole-balancing challenge from being thrown in Gabon!) Cliff, who's played more NBA games than Michael Jordan, only narrowly managed to out-shoot Spencer. Maybe it was Jeff's incessant coaching from the sidelines that distracted him? The man has hosted Rock & Roll Jeopardy and Survivor; ESPN is the obvious next step in his Trivial Pursuit-like journey through television. Or maybe it was how the challenge was subliminal plugging for CBS' March Madness tourney? Regardless, Cliff should be even more ashamed than Spencer for missing those shots.

Speaking of ashamed… Sarah. Sarah should be ashamed. She's running around like a chicken with her head cut off (or twisted off, in the case of the Beauty tribe. Also, how ridiculous was the whole egg debacle? So ridiculous). She's fallen right into Tony's trap and is gunning for Cliff/Lindsay. She turned to Woo, an established Cliff-Hanger(™), and made some pretty convincing arguments towards getting him out. All of these, however, conflict with my pro-tips.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #5: Don't throw the challenge. You will lose momentum and you will lose sleep and you will lose numbers and you will lose the game. Unless you're Richard Hatch and you've established an endgame where the only way you win a million dollars is if you drop out of the final challenge, give it your all. Cliff won't go on an Immunity run post-merge and you can easily blindside him then.

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #6: Celebrity = Goat. Remember how I suggested you find the most likable person on the island and quickly dispose of him/her? This rule trumps that one. There is NO WAY a celebrity will defeat a single mom or a college student in a jury situation. Cliff has (or had and lost) millions of dollars, and no matter how well he plays, he's not getting another big check. Lisa Whelchel played strong enough to garner at least a few votes in Philippines, but the fact she was a former child star (and, worse, lied about it) nullified any jury traction. You've gotta be a real scumbag to lose a jury vote to a celeb -- in which case, there's no way you'd ever win Survivor.

But it looks like Woo's on board… I think? Watching him scuffle away from Sarah, shouting "WE'RE GOOD!", when Tony approached leads me to believe he's a nervous player. Nervous players are easily swayed. Once Cliff approaches Woo with another deal, Woo's probably jumping back in the (sinking) canoe with him.

So far, Tony's plan is working. Sarah is off his trail and targeting Cliff. Woo is apparently intimidated by his presence. His house of cards is immaculately constructed. By swearing on his badge and talking about "dragging dreams through the mud" he's shown shades of Jonny Fairplay and Tyson, in addition to his already Hantz-ian behavior. But, to me, it all feels so forced, so unnatural, so… pathetic? Tony is a good cop trying to play bad cop. I'm not buying it.

Which brings us to the Brains, in last again thanks to J'Tia. Not since Crystal Cox has a contestant been so spectacularly bad at challenges. Sure, swimming is hard. Puzzles are hard. But placing a flag on a platform and lifting a rope is NOT hard, compared to what Spencer's crotch went through. (For all my Archer fans, this is where you yell "Phrasing!')

The meta commentary from Spencer and Kass at tribal was great. The audience is treated (or sometimes nauseated) by edits handed down from the production gods that foreshadow certain player's worth. We can surmise, for instance, come finale night Jeff won't be handing a million-dollar check to Lindsay. While on the island, in the moment, Lindsay is just as viable a contender as anybody else. How can you possibly predict who's going to help your game?

SURVIVOR PRO TIP #7: Know Your Survivor History. Kass and Tasha racked their brains over whether a merge or tribe swap was coming. The answer, to Survivor super fans, is an obvious yes. There have only been two other seasons in which 18 players were divided among 3 tribes, All Stars and Philippines, and in both of those seasons, tribes were shuffled after 4 eliminations. With this being the 4th Tribal of the season, odds are Kass and Tasha would soon be playing with new blood -- and as the scenes for next week show us, this is exactly the case.

That doesn't automatically mean keep the loyal J'Tia and cut the alienated Spencer. The shuffles in question weren't your run of the mill tribe swaps -- in each instance, the last-place tribe in a reward challenge would be absorbed into the other tribes. If Kass, Tasha and their third amigo lost the challenge, two of them go to Team Beauty (or whatever the name we actually have to learn now), one to team Brawn, to even things out 7-7. In order to stay intact, they need to win. To win, frankly, they need Spencer.

Spencer gets MVP this week for not only putting on a good show at the Immunity challenge, but also convincing Kass and Tasha he's not jumping ship the first chance he gets. And I believe him! He doesn't seem live a spiteful guy, especially because the ladies on the tribe have shown him respect. When Cochran flipped on his Savaii tribe in South Pacific, it was because he'd been mercilessly bullied. Shambo in Samoa, too. I guess that's SURVIVOR PRO TIP #8: Don't Be A Bully. 

In my opinion, the Brains made the right choice. Best case scenario, Spencer seems loyal enough and will probably be more of an asset in socializing and swaying stragglers than J'Tia. Worst case, Spencer is picked off first due to his strength, buying Kass & Tasha 3 more days.

Up For Grabs (Formerly Random Thoughts):

-Episode MVP: Spencer.

-Winner Pick: Sarah, for at least one more week, because of the whole "two cops in the finals" runner. I don't think it's Tony. It's not Lindsay, Cliff, Woo, Alexis, LJ, Jeremiah, Jefra or Trish. That leaves us with Tasha, Kass, Spencer and Morgan still in the running.

-Historically, cops suck at Survivor. The average placement of acting/former police officers is 14.25 (counting Debb, Maralyn, Jessie, Ken, Amy, Cristina, Betsy and Mark/Papa Bear. Wow, lots of lady cops!)

-Fallen Comrades: You hung in there for as long as you could, girl, and I applaud you for that. Kass and Tasha nearly kept you! You nearly made the tribe swap! There's no telling how far you could have inched along, you poor little pawn. At least you're a winner outside of the game.

-Having two challenges per week is good for most fans of the show, bad for me and the blog, but I obviously still found A LOT to say.

-Did the Brains make the right move? What'll happen in the upcoming tribe swap? And where do chickens come from?? Share your thoughts in the comments or with me on Twitter, @miketvladue.